Daniel Otera
Nigeria’s population puzzle remains unsolved. Nineteen years after the last national headcount, the country is still waiting for verified demographic data a delay that continues to undermine planning, budgeting, and equitable development across the federation.
The recent leadership transition at the National Population Commission (NPC) has once again spotlighted the urgency of a credible census. On Tuesday, Nasir Isa Kwarra formally stepped down after five years as Chairman, handing over to Muhammad Usman Dattijo in acting capacity. The Commission awaits the swearing-in of Aminu Yusuf by President Bola Tinubu to assume substantive leadership.
Kwarra’s tenure, which began in 2020 under former President Muhammadu Buhari, was marked by digital reforms and preparatory groundwork for a census initially scheduled for 2023. That exercise was postponed due to the change in administration, leaving Nigeria’s population data frozen in time still anchored to the 2006 census.
“Hon. Kwarra expressed appreciation to the Federal Commissioners, Management and Staff of the NPC for their unwavering support and dedication throughout his five-year tenure,” the Commission stated, noting his efforts in digitising Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) and modernising data collection systems.
The implications of the delay are far-reaching. Nigeria’s estimated population now exceeds 220 million, according to international projections, but without a verified count, these figures remain speculative. This data vacuum affects everything from federal allocations and constituency delineation to healthcare planning and infrastructure development.
Under Kwarra, the NPC introduced digital mapping and enumeration area demarcation a shift aimed at improving accuracy and reducing manual errors. These innovations were designed to align Nigeria’s census methodology with global standards, using geospatial tools and real-time data capture.
Yet, despite these strides, the absence of fresh population data continues to frustrate policymakers and development partners. Accurate demographic statistics are essential for evidence-based governance, especially in a country grappling with rapid urbanisation, youth unemployment, and regional disparities.
The handover ceremony in Abuja, attended by Commissioners, Directors, and staff, was symbolic but sobering. It marked the end of a tenure that laid the technical foundation for a modern census — but left the mission incomplete.
Dattijo, representing Niger State, now leads the Commission in acting capacity. While his role is temporary, the expectation is clear: maintain momentum and prepare the ground for Yusuf’s formal assumption. The incoming Chairman faces a daunting task — delivering a credible census that has eluded Nigeria for nearly two decades.
As the clock ticks, the question remains: how long can Nigeria plan in the dark? Without accurate population data, the country risks misallocating resources, misrepresenting communities, and missing development targets.