Chris Okpoko
In recent years, Nigeria has faced numerous economic challenges, worsened by a volatile global market and domestic inefficiencies. In response to these issues, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has championed the “Nigeria First” policy, a strategic approach aimed at prioritizing national interests in governance and economic growth. This essay will critically evaluate the seriousness of this policy, particularly in light of ongoing challenges, such as the continued importation of fuel, even after the establishment of the Dangote Refinery, the largest in Africa.
The “Nigeria First” policy underscores a commitment to fostering self-reliance, stimulating local industries, and reducing dependency on foreign goods and services. This approach intends to build a resilient economy that can withstand external shocks while providing job opportunities for Nigerians. Central to this policy is the emphasis on indigenous production, local entrepreneurship, and sustainable development.
President Tinubu’s vision reflects the need to reverse decades of reliance on imports in agriculture, energy, and manufacturing sectors. The campaign promises to prioritize homegrown solutions not merely as a reaction to global economic pressures but as a transformative strategy that harnesses the potential of Nigeria’s abundant resources and human capital.
A major area of concern regarding the seriousness of the Nigeria First policy is the nation’s persistent reliance on imported fuel. Despite the inauguration of the Dangote Refinery, which has the capacity to reduce fuel imports significantly, the country still grapples with the realities of a deeply entrenched petroleum importation culture. According to recent media reports, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released a total sum of $1.259 billion to oil sector players for the importation of petroleum products and other related items into the country. The amount released between the first three months of 2025 is against the backdrop of the insistence of marketers to continue fuel import despite the availability of petrol from Dangote Refinery.
According to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Petroleum marketers imported 69 percent of the 21 billion litres of petrol consumed between August 2024 and the first 10 days of October 2025.
Fuel imports, a significant consumer of foreign exchange, impact the country’s foreign reserves and exchange rate. Thus, the CBN’s release of $1.259 billion to oil sector players for the importation of petroleum products, as well as the private petroleum marketers’ continued importation of fuel, raises questions about the effectiveness of the Nigeria First initiative in practice.
The Dangote Refinery, located in Lagos, was heralded as a game-changer for Nigeria’s oil industry. With its capacity to process 650,000 barrels per day, it stands poised to meet the domestic demand for fuel and even export surplus products. Besides the Dangote Refinery, other functional refineries in Nigeria include the Waltersmith in Imo, Aradel in Rivers, Duport Midstream, and OPAC modular refineries both in Edo, as well as the government-owned Warri and Port Harcourt refineries, which are undergoing rehabilitation. These refineries process crude oil to produce various products such as diesel, kerosene, and naphtha, and symbolize Tinubu’s ambitions to bolster local production capabilities, thereby reducing the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.
However, the full operationalization of these facilities faces several hurdles. Infrastructure limitations, regulatory challenges, and inconsistencies in policy implementation hinder the refineries from achieving their full potential. Furthermore, the political and economic stability necessary for a thriving industrial sector is still fragile. The persistence of fuel importation amid the existence of these refineries implies that more needs to be done to align policies with practical realities.
Several interrelated factors elucidate the challenges facing the Nigeria First policy in terms of fuel independence, such as:
Infrastructure Deficiencies – Adequate infrastructure is crucial for any manufacturing or refining operation. Issues related to road networks, power supply, and logistics create bottlenecks that hamper the timely distribution of locally refined products.
Regulatory Environment – For the Nigeria First policy to succeed, a stable regulatory framework is paramount. However, frequent policy changes, coupled with bureaucratic inefficiencies, can deter investment and limit the growth of local industries.
Market Dynamics – The fuel market in Nigeria is heavily influenced by global oil prices and foreign exchange rates. The fluctuation in these external factors often undermines local production efforts, making it challenging for domestically produced fuel to compete against imported alternatives.
Economic Diversification – A reliance on oil has historically rendered Nigeria vulnerable to economic shocks. The lack of diversification within the economy often forces the government’s hand toward importing fuel rather than fostering reliable local alternatives. This challenge reflects broader issues within the Nigerian economy, such as an insufficient focus on developing other sectors that could complement and support the energy sector.
Corruption and Mismanagement – Endemic corruption remains a significant obstacle to the effective implementation of the Nigeria First policy. Mismanagement of funds, lack of accountability, and corrupt practices undermine efforts to build a thriving petroleum sector and stifle the broader goals of economic independence.
The Tinubu administration has demonstrated a commitment to addressing these challenges through various initiatives, including fostering collaborations with local businesses and encouraging foreign direct investment. However, the seriousness of the Nigeria First policy rests on its ability to translate intentions into tangible results. Consequently, the government must ensure that policies designed to enhance local production are consistently implemented and supported by the necessary infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.
A critical aspect of this commitment also involves engaging with stakeholders across the energy sector—from local producers to international investors—to foster an environment favorable to Nigerian businesses. Transparency and accountability should be prioritized to regain public trust and encourage investment, both domestically and internationally.
The Nigeria First policy under President Tinubu holds promise for transforming Nigeria into a self-reliant and robust economy, but significant challenges remain, particularly concerning the persistent importation of fuel. While the Dangote Refinery represents a monumental step towards self-sufficiency, its impact on reducing dependency on imports cannot be fully realized without addressing fundamental issues like infrastructure, regulation, market dynamics, economic diversification, and corruption.
To fulfill the aspirations of the Nigeria First policy, the government must adopt a multi-faceted and pragmatic approach that goes beyond merely setting policy directives. Engagement with the private sector, investment in infrastructure, and a transparent regulatory environment are essential to realize the full potential of local production and redefine Nigeria’s economic landscape. Only through such comprehensive measures can Nigeria assert its position as a leader in the African continent and emerge victorious in its quest for economic independence and prosperity.