Chris Okpoko
As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu reaches the mid-term mark of his administration, it is an opportune moment to reflect on his performance against the backdrop of his “Renewed Hope Agenda.” This agenda, which encapsulates his vision for Nigeria, aims to transform the nation economically, politically, and socially. In this article, we will evaluate key areas of Tinubu’s scorecard, including economic reforms, security challenges, infrastructure development, healthcare improvements, and foreign policy, while considering how these efforts align with his overarching goals.
Economic Reforms and Fiscal Policy
Source: NBS – National Bureau of Statistics, CBN – Central Bank of Nigeria, CEIC – CEIC Data, OPEC- Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, IMF – International Monetary Fund
The Nigerian economy has been under scrutiny following a tumultuous financial landscape marked by fluctuating oil prices, and global economic uncertainty. To review the performance of President Tinubu’s administration in its first half, we explored areas such as GDP growth, inflation rates, unemployment figures, exchange rates, external reserves, and foreign investments.
One of the most significant indicators of economic performance is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Under President Tinubu, Nigeria’s GDP has seen a cautious recovery. In his first year in office, economic growth was reported at approximately 3.4%, up from about 2.86% in the preceding year. This growth signifies a shift towards stability and indicates that economic activities have been boosted following the emergence of a new administration.
While positive GDP growth is encouraging, the specter of high and rising inflation poses significant challenges. Inflation in Nigeria surged to levels not witnessed in many years, peaking at around 34.2% in the second quarter of 2024. At 23.71% (April 2025), the inflation rate is still high. High inflation erodes purchasing power and disproportionately affects low-income households, leading to increased poverty rates. The high inflation rate is attributed to various factors, including the removal of fuel subsidies, which led to higher transportation costs and consequently affected the prices of goods and services. While the decision to remove subsidies was to create a more sustainable fiscal environment, the immediate impact has been detrimental for many Nigerians. The administration is tasked with implementing social safety nets and targeted subsidy programs to mitigate the effects of inflation on the most vulnerable segments of society. In addition to managing inflation, the government faces external pressure due to global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, which have further complicated efforts to stabilize prices. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has responded by tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates in an attempt to curb inflation. However, this approach must be balanced carefully, as high or excessive rate hikes could stifle economic growth.
Unemployment remains one of the most pressing challenges facing Nigeria today. The latest figures indicate that the unemployment rate is rising, with youth unemployment being particularly alarming. This statistic represents a critical issue for Tinubu’s government, as many young Nigerians grapple with joblessness and limited opportunities for skill development.
The administration has acknowledged this crisis and has made job creation a priority. Initiatives aimed at vocational training and entrepreneurship support are essential. Programs focused on enhancing skills in technology, agriculture, and trades are vital to equipping the youth for the labor market. Moreover, collaborating with private sector stakeholders to foster internships and apprenticeships can provide invaluable experience and reduce barriers to employment.
The volatility of the Naira against major currencies has been a significant point of concern for the Tinubu administration. The CBN has faced immense pressure to stabilize the currency, which has experienced considerable depreciation. Efforts to unify the exchange rates have created challenges, especially for businesses that rely on imports and foreign investments.
To address these issues, the administration has adopted measures aimed at enhancing foreign exchange liquidity and reducing speculation against the Naira. Implementing transparent and consistent foreign exchange policies is crucial for restoring investor confidence. Moreover, maintaining open channels of communication with stakeholders in the foreign exchange market will help mitigate volatility.
However, this challenge is intertwined with Nigeria’s trade balance. With a reliance on imports for many essential products, the trade deficit continues to widen. To boost exports, President Tinubu’s government has sought to enhance trade relations with neighboring countries and diversify export commodities, focusing on non-oil exports, such as agricultural products and solid minerals.
Encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI) is integral to enhancing Nigeria’s economic prospects. The Tinubu administration has initiated reforms aimed at improving the investment climate. Streamlining bureaucratic processes, enforcing property rights, and ensuring a stable regulatory framework are pivotal steps to attracting FDI. Early reports show a cautiously optimistic outlook for FDI inflows, with investors expressing interest in sectors such as renewable energy, technology, and infrastructure development. However, to fully capitalize on this interest, the administration must address underlying concerns, such as corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and security risks. Creating an enabling environment that fosters trust and collaboration between foreign investors and local businesses is essential for sustainable economic growth.
Agriculture
President Tinubu’s renewed hope agenda promised to enhance agricultural production and ensure food security. However, two years into his first term, Nigeria faces a hunger crisis more severe than when he came into office. This crisis is primarily attributed to the removal of fuel and foreign exchange subsidies. These policies substantially increased the costs of transportation and agricultural inputs. The soaring prices of goods and services have occurred alongside a decline in purchasing power and insecurity in rural areas, particularly in food-producing states, continued to disrupt agricultural activities.
In the last two years, President Tinubu’s administration:
- Introduced the Dry Season Farming Initiative on 500,000 hectares of farmland, financed by the African Development Bank with $134 million to promote year-round farming, supported with irrigation and storage facilities.
- The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (FMAFS) and Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) of Brazil signed an MOU to advance private sector development in fertilizer production, hybrid seed technology, and agricultural finance. FGV is the lead implementer of the Green Imperative Project (GIP), one of the largest international agricultural technology transfer initiatives. Conceived in 2018, GIP is a $1.2 billion cooperative effort between Brazil and Nigeria, designed to modernize Nigeria’s agricultural sector through Brazilian expertise in tropical agriculture.
- According to the government, over the next five years, the project will identify and support one agribusiness in Nigeria’s 774 local government areas with technical and financial resources, driving sustainable development and economic growth.
- Recently declared a state of emergency on food insecurity, targeting the food supply shortfall and rising food prices. He unveiled a comprehensive food security, affordability, and sustainability intervention plan with short-, medium-, and long-term goals.
One of President Tinubu’s primary focuses has been economic recovery and growth, particularly in the wake of the global economic downturn. His government recognized the need for urgent fiscal reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy, reducing inflation, and enhancing productivity. Central to his economic agenda has been a concerted effort to diversify the economy away from reliance on oil revenues, traditionally the backbone of Nigeria’s finances.
To this end, Tinubu’s administration has sought to promote solid minerals, agriculture, and technology as viable alternatives. Furthermore, Tinubu has championed the digital economy, facilitating partnerships with tech companies and investing in digital infrastructure to drive innovation and create job opportunities for the youth.
However, the success of these initiatives has been mixed. While there have been signs of growth in certain sectors, challenges such as bureaucratic bottlenecks and infrastructural deficits continue to impede progress. The administration’s ability to navigate these hurdles will be crucial for achieving the ambitious targets set out in the Renewed Hope Agenda.
Security Challenges
Security remains one of Nigeria’s most pressing issues, with various threats ranging from Boko Haram insurgency to banditry and kidnappings. President Tinubu’s mid-term scorecard reflects a commitment to addressing these challenges head-on. His administration has pledged to enhance national security through improved funding for the military and law enforcement agencies, coupled with a focus on intelligence gathering and community policing. Recently, the President approved the establishment of a National Forest Guard system and ordered the recruitment of over 130,000 armed operatives to secure the country’s 1,129 forest reserves.
In addition to traditional security measures, Tinubu has recognized the importance of socio-economic factors in addressing insecurity. By promoting youth employment and creating viable economic opportunities, the administration hopes to mitigate some of the underlying causes of unrest. However, despite these efforts, the security situation in some regions remains tenuous, and the President faces criticism for not adequately addressing the rising wave of violence, particularly in rural areas.
Infrastructure Development
Infrastructure is a critical pillar of Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, with plans to improve transportation networks, energy supplies, and urban development. His government has prioritized funding for road construction, rail projects, and renewable energy initiatives, recognizing that robust infrastructure is essential for economic growth and social cohesion. Midway through his term, several key projects are underway, including the building/expansion of major highways and the revitalization of railway services. Additionally, the administration has indicated its commitment to increasing electricity generation through investments in renewable sources—a move crucial for sustainable development.
However, concerns over the pace of project implementation and corruption within the procurement processes have been raised. Infrastructural development is crucial in supporting overall economic growth and Investments in power generation and distribution are particularly pressing, as reliable electricity remains a bottleneck for manufacturing and small businesses. Critics argue that delays in execution jeopardize the potential benefits of these initiatives. For the Renewed Hope Agenda to resonate with Nigerians, the administration must ensure transparency and efficiency in infrastructure development.
Healthcare Improvements
The healthcare sector is another critical focus area for Tinubu, as the administration seeks to address longstanding deficiencies. His mid-term assessment shows efforts to revitalize healthcare services through increased funding, expanded access to medical facilities, and reform of the health insurance system.
Tinubu’s government promotes public-private partnerships (PPPs) to bolster healthcare infrastructure and enhance service delivery. Notably, there have been attempts to improve maternal and child health programs, vaccination drives, and awareness campaigns about preventable diseases. Other achievements include:
- Several health infrastructures are currently being built across the country in a bid to improve the quality of health services for Nigerians.
- Most recently, the Hon Minister of Health commissioned 10 projects in the University of Abuja including a 34-bed male medical ward, a 50-room residential block for interns, and a 50-room call duty block among others. The same commissioning was done in Ibadan many months ago. Several such projects are also currently being built across federal medical centres in the country.
- Recently, President Tinubu inducted 774 National Health Fellows. All 774 were also granted automatic employment by the Federal Government. The one-year programme aims to empower young professionals to drive meaningful change and innovation in the healthcare sector, focusing on improving primary healthcare delivery and promoting universal health coverage. It will also contribute to the construction of 8,800 primary healthcare facilities across the 774 Local Governments in the country.
- The expansion of six major cancer infrastructure projects, of which three are scheduled for commissioning next month.
- Strengthened the Health Management Information System – At the inception of this administration in 2023, about 15 percent of all facilities shared data electronically with the national aggregate data system (DHIS-2), with over 75 percent of Federal Tertiary Hospitals (FTHs) owning Electronic Medical Record (EMR) systems. There were, however, no established minimum standards for the deployment and implementation of EMRs in the country. In addressing the above, President Tinubu’s administration established the Nigeria Digital in Health Initiative (NDHI), with the aim of not only integrating EMR systems into Nigeria’s health system by ensuring seamless interoperability and system efficiency but also enhancing healthcare delivery and the experience of care.
Despite these intentions and achievements, the healthcare system continues to face significant challenges, including strikes by medical personnel, inadequate facilities, and inequitable access to care. While progress is noted, many citizens remain skeptical about the administration’s capacity to deliver meaningful reforms in this sector.
Foreign Policy and Relations
On the international front, President Tinubu has sought to reshape Nigeria’s foreign relations, emphasizing diplomacy, economic partnerships, and regional stability. His administration has actively engaged with neighboring countries to combat transnational threats such as terrorism and human trafficking, prioritizing collaborative approaches to shared security challenges. Moreover, Tinubu has made noteworthy strides in strengthening trade relationships, particularly with countries in Africa, Europe, and Asia. By advocating for Nigeria’s position within regional organizations such as ECOWAS and the African Union, he aims to bolster Nigeria’s leadership role on the continent.
Nonetheless, the effectiveness of Tinubu’s foreign policy initiatives will largely depend on the domestic situation. Economic instability or widespread insecurity could undermine Nigeria’s standing and diplomatic influence abroad. Therefore, a cohesive approach that aligns domestic prosperity with international engagement is vital.
In conclusion, as President Tinubu marks the mid-point of his administration, his scorecard presents a complex picture. The Renewed Hope Agenda encapsulates a bold vision for revitalizing Nigeria; however, the path forward is fraught with challenges.
The economic indicators reflect both achievements and challenges. While GDP growth shows promise, the administration must tackle high inflation, staggering unemployment, currency volatility, and foreign investment challenges with urgency. The government must adopt a holistic approach, balancing short-term interventions with long-term strategic planning to ensure sustainable economic growth.
Nigeria stands at a crossroads, with the potential to emerge as a regional economic powerhouse if guided by effective leadership and resilient policies. The path forward requires cooperation among stakeholders, innovative thinking, and a steadfast commitment to addressing the systemic issues that have historically hindered the nation’s economic progress.
The economic reforms show promise, but the need for transparent governance and structural improvements remains urgent. Similarly, while efforts to address security and infrastructure issues are commendable, tangible progress is required to restore public confidence. Moving forward, the success of Tinubu’s presidency will hinge on the administration’s ability to adapt to changing circumstances and respond effectively to citizens’ needs. By fostering an inclusive dialogue with various stakeholders and maintaining a steadfast commitment to accountability, Tinubu can work towards realizing the aspirations of the Renewed Hope Agenda and securing a more prosperous future for Nigeria.
