Services Sector Boosts Nigerian GDP to 4.07% Growth – NBS
Nigeria’s economy closed 2025 on a high note, recording a real GDP growth of 4.07% in the fourth quarter. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows a steady acceleration from the 3.76% seen during the same period in 2024. The services sector remains the undisputed engine of this expansion, accounting for nearly 56% of the aggregate output. This performance brought the full-year growth for 2025 to 3.87%, a notable improvement over the 3.38% managed in the previous year.
While services led the charge with a 4.15% growth rate, agriculture and industry showed surprising resilience. Agriculture grew by 4.00%, nearly doubling its 2.54% performance from the previous year, primarily driven by crop production. The industrial sector also gained significant momentum, climbing to 3.88% from 2.49% in late 2024. In nominal terms, the economy’s sheer size expanded to N122.81 trillion, reflecting a 17.55% year-on-year growth that highlights both real gains and inflationary pressures.
The oil sector provided a mixed but ultimately positive contribution to the annual figures. Real growth in the oil sector jumped to 6.79% in Q4, up from a measly 2.08% a year earlier. Average daily production reached 1.58 million barrels (mbpd), slightly higher than the 1.54 mbpd recorded in late 2024, though it dipped from the 1.64 mbpd achieved in the third quarter. Despite these fluctuations, the oil sector’s annual growth of 8.50% significantly outpaced the 5.54% recorded in 2024.
Despite the headlines often grabbed by crude oil, the non-oil sector remains the backbone of the Nigerian economy. It contributed a staggering 97.13% to the GDP in the final quarter of 2025. Key drivers within this segment included information and communication, real estate, trade, and financial services. Manufacturing also played a vital role, particularly in the food, beverage, and tobacco sub-sectors. This broad-based growth suggests an economy that is slowly diversifying its productive base, even as it remains sensitive to oil price volatility.
The 2025 figures offer a glimmer of optimism for a country grappling with high living costs. A growth rate of 3.87% for the year indicates that the economy is expanding faster than the population—a critical metric for poverty reduction. However, the marginal increase in the services sector’s share of the GDP suggests that the transition toward a more industrialised economy remains a slow-burning process. The reliance on services like trade and telecommunications provides stability but lacks the massive job-creation potential of large-scale manufacturing.
As Nigeria navigates 2026, the challenge for this administration will be to sustain this momentum amidst global economic headwinds. The resilience shown in Q4 2025 provides a solid foundation, but the quarter-on-quarter dip in oil production remains a red flag. If the government can harmonise this growth with lower inflation, the “broad-based resilience” cited by the NBS might finally be felt in the pockets of the average citizen. For now, the services sector continues to carry the heavy lifting of the Nigerian economy.