Middle East War Poses Military,Economic Threats To Africa

 

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have placed Africa in a precarious position, with military installations in the Horn of Africa emerging as potential targets for Iranian retaliation and the continent’s economies bracing for fallout from disrupted global trade and soaring energy costs.

The continent remains “structurally exposed” to the ongoing war, according to Hubert Kinkoh, senior researcher at the CARPO think tank. “Energy imports, foreign military bases, and its proximity to maritime chokepoints mean the war’s effects reach African shores quickly,” Kinkoh stated.

Among the key vulnerabilities are sites in the Horn of Africa that could draw Iranian strikes. Djibouti’s Camp Lemonnier hosts around 4,000 US military personnel and lies less than 100 miles (160 kilometres) from Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels maintain an arsenal of ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles, and drones.

The Houthis, despite vowing involvement, have not yet engaged in the current conflict but previously disrupted major trade routes through attacks on Red Sea shipping during the Israel-Hamas war.

Just south of Djibouti, Somaliland hosts the Berbera port and a military base operated by the United Arab Emirates, another adversary of Iran. Israel recently became the only country to recognize Somaliland’s independence from Somalia, with a Western diplomat informing AFP that Israeli troops may already be present there.

“Berbera is not a confirmed target, but its location (near the southern entrance to the Red Sea) leaves it vulnerable, particularly as Iran-aligned groups widen the range of facilities they view as linked to US or allied operations,” Kinkoh noted.

Economically, the timing of the war exacerbates challenges for Africa, arriving just as a weaker dollar and lower interest rates had provided some relief to its heavily indebted nations. The conflict disrupts global trade by diverting vessels from the Suez Canal to the longer, costlier route around the Cape of Good Hope, driving up prices for energy, food, and other goods.

While oil producers like Nigeria might typically benefit, the country has secured low prices through long-term export contracts and remains a net importer of refined fuels due to inadequate refining capacity. Pump prices in Nigeria rose by about 14 percent this week.

The Nigerian think tank SBM Intelligence critiqued the government’s “wait-and-see” approach to international affairs, arguing it leaves the nation’s “economic interests subject to forces beyond our control”—a sentiment applicable to many African countries.

African economies also depend on remittances from hundreds of thousands of migrant workers in the Gulf, now at risk amid the instability. Past Middle East crises have exposed the absence of evacuation plans or emergency support for these workers.

Diplomatically, some African nations face scrutiny for their engagements. South Africa, having opposed Israel and hosted Iranian warships for naval exercises in January, draws particular attention—even as the government later disavowed involvement, claiming the military acted against presidential orders.

“South Africa will want to reinforce the signalling to the world that it is a non-aligned neutral actor. That is a message it’s going to really struggle to sell, given that Iran was so active in the exercise,” observed Timothy Walker of the Institute for Security Studies.

William Gumede, professor of public management at the University of Witwatersrand, warned that South Africa’s geopolitical positioning could invite US sanctions on government members. “Our economy is so vulnerable… We do not have a luxury to try to grandstand globally,” he said.

In the longer term, the war influences regional geopolitics, where Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and others have expanded into Africa—constructing ports, infrastructure, supplying drones, establishing bases, and exploring oil, especially in East Africa.

Gulf powers have faced accusations of fueling conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, prompting hopes that the current war might yield positives. “A UAE forced to concentrate on defending its own airspace and territory may reduce its footprint in African conflicts, creating space for African-led peace processes to function more effectively,” SBM Intelligence suggested.

Africa’s entanglement with Middle East conflicts traces back decades, shaped by colonial legacies, Cold War rivalries, and post-colonial alignments. During the 1970s and 1980s, African nations navigated the Arab-Israeli wars, with many aligning through the Non-Aligned Movement while others, like Ethiopia under Mengistu Haile Mariam, received Soviet support amid regional proxy battles. The 1973 Yom Kippur War triggered an oil embargo by OPEC, dominated by Gulf states, causing global price shocks that crippled import-dependent African economies, leading to debt crises and structural adjustment programs in the 1980s.

Military bases in Africa reflect longstanding great-power interests. Camp Lemonnier, originally a French Foreign Legion outpost, was leased to the US in 2002 following the 9/11 attacks, becoming the only permanent American base on the continent and headquarters for counterterrorism operations in the Horn and Yemen. Its personnel has grown over 400 percent since inception, underscoring Washington’s focus on regional stability amid threats from al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates.

In Somaliland, the UAE’s Berbera base, established in 2017 to support Yemen operations, has expanded amid geopolitical shifts, including Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland—the first such move globally, aimed at securing Red Sea interests against Houthi threats. This ties into broader Gulf rivalries, with the UAE investing over $442 million in Berbera port, transforming it into a strategic hub.

Economic dependencies have deepened over time. Remittances from the Gulf to Africa reached $22.7 billion for Egypt alone in 2024, with Nigeria at $19.8 billion and Morocco at $12.05 billion, often surpassing foreign aid and FDI. These flows, vital for household incomes and GDP (up to 35 percent in South Sudan), face disruption as wars threaten migrant safety and jobs.

South Africa’s relations with Iran date to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when Tehran imposed sanctions on apartheid-era Pretoria. Post-1994, ties resumed, with Iran joining BRICS in 2023 at South Africa’s summit. However, recent naval exercises involving Iranian warships, against presidential directives, have strained US relations and highlighted civil-military tensions.

Gulf influence in Africa has evolved from oil diplomacy to comprehensive engagements. Since the 2010s, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar have invested billions in infrastructure, agriculture, and ports, often amid intra-Gulf rivalries like the Qatar blockade. In East Africa, UAE and Turkish ports in Somalia and Sudan exemplify this, sometimes exacerbating local conflicts but also driving development.

As the Middle East war persists, Africa’s exposure underscores the need for diversified energy sources, robust diplomacy, and contingency planning to mitigate impacts on its fragile economies and security landscape.