The TotalEnergies Africa Cup of Nations entered its decisive phase on Monday, with the final round of group-stage matches determining which teams progress to the knockout stage and which must pack their bags and leave Morocco disappointed. Only three nations had secured automatic advancement by Sunday, whilst the remaining qualification places became the subject of intense tactical calculations and mathematical permutations across the six groups.
According to the Confederation of African Football, Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria have already booked their places in the Round of 16 after winning their opening two matches, leaving the remaining 12 teams to battle over three days for the final 13 available knockout positions.
The tight competition stands in stark contrast to early tournament expectations. Across Africa’s premier football competition, held in Morocco until 18 January 2026, conventional wisdom has repeatedly failed to predict results. Teams considered strong performers have stumbled, whilst minnows have fought with the spirit of true giants.
Nigeria’s passage to the knockout stage came with more drama than comfort after a pulsating 3-2 victory against Tunisia on Saturday in Fez. The Super Eagles looked to be cruising to a straightforward win when they led 3-0, with goals from Victor Osimhen, captain Wilfred Ndidi and Atalanta’s Ademola Lookman, appearing to have settled the encounter.
Tunisia, however, mounted a remarkable comeback that tested Nigeria’s nerves. The North Africans scored twice through Montassar Talbi and Ali Abdi to transform a seemingly comfortable scoreline into a tense finale. With seven minutes of added time remaining, Tunisia fashioned two clear opportunities to level through Ferjani Sassi’s header and a shot from substitute Ismael Gharbi, both just missing their target.
The result left Nigeria with six points from their opening two matches, securing their progression to the last 16 despite the defensive vulnerabilities exposed by Tunisia’s second-half onslaught. The Super Eagles were seeking redemption after finishing as runners-up in the 2023 AFCON in Côte d’Ivoire, where they fell to defending champions Ivory Coast.
Head coach Eric Chelle faces a squad with considerable attacking talent through Osimhen and Lookman, both former CAF Player of the Year award winners. Nigeria’s remaining group fixture on Tuesday brings them face-to-face with Uganda in what has become a dead-rubber match, with the Super Eagles already assured of progression. Uganda, by contrast, face a must-win scenario to keep their knockout stage hopes alive after drawing 1-1 against Tanzania.
Egypt, the seven-time AFCON champions, arrived as one of the tournament’s most successful teams and demonstrated why, winning their opening two matches to secure six points. The North African giants already had their progression virtually assured before the final round of matches, leading their group convincingly atop the standings.
In Group B, South Africa sit in second place with three points, whilst Angola and Zimbabwe remain locked on one point each, with the final group standings to be decided on Monday. South Africa face Zimbabwe, whilst Angola confront Egypt in fixtures that carry enormous consequence for teams desperate to progress.
Algeria’s passage to the knockout stage came as little surprise, given their pedigree and strength. The North Africans won their opening two matches to secure six points, positioning themselves to finish top of their group regardless of their final fixture.
In Group E, Algeria’s dominance has left the remaining qualification spot uncertain. Burkina Faso and Sudan remain level on three points, locked in a fierce battle for the one remaining automatic qualification position available from the group.
Group A remains genuinely open, with hosts Morocco leading on four points after two matches, despite failing to register a victory. The Atlas Lions drew 1-1 with Mali through penalty conversions, maintaining their unbeaten record but leaving themselves vulnerable heading into their final fixture against Zambia.
Mali sit level with Zambia on two points, with both teams still harbouring realistic hopes of progression. Comoros, the group’s relative minnows, occupy fourth place with one point. The group stage suggests that Morocco, traditionally inconsistent at AFCON despite their continental success, have struggled to find their rhythm despite hosting the tournament on home soil.
Mali have not won their second group match at AFCON since 2004, a statistic that will weigh on coach Éric Chelle’s mind as his team faces Comoros in the final round. If Mali achieve victory and Morocco slip up against Zambia, the outcome could dramatically reshape Group A’s standings.
Group C, beyond Nigeria’s progression, has provided compelling entertainment. Tunisia’s recovery from conceding three goals to nearly salvaging an equaliser demonstrated the competitive spirit that defines modern African football. Uganda’s stalemate with Tanzania left the Cranes in a precarious position, with their last-16 hopes dependent on an unlikely result against Nigeria, a team that has already secured their knockout place.
Group D presents a similarly finely balanced scenario. Senegal and DR Congo sit level on four points, with Benin on three and Botswana yet to register a point. Senegal face Benin whilst DR Congo take on Botswana, with the final standings set to be determined by narrow margins.
Group F features defending champions Ivory Coast locked on four points with Cameroon, whilst Mozambique remain in contention on three points. Gabon has already been eliminated. The defending champions, who engineered one of AFCON’s most remarkable comebacks to defeat Nigeria in the 2023 final, appear positioned to progress but cannot afford complacency against either Cameroon or Côte d’Ivoire’s expected opponent.
Beyond the 12 automatic qualifiers from the top two positions in each group, the four best third-placed teams will also advance to the knockout stage. This format means that teams finishing third place with sufficient points remain in contention.
History provided a powerful reminder of this pathway’s significance. At AFCON 2023, hosts Ivory Coast finished third in their group but scraped through as one of the best third-placed finishers with just four points. The team’s margin for error proved minimal, but they ultimately proceeded to win the entire tournament in one of African football’s most remarkable comebacks.
To ensure sporting integrity and prevent any team gaining competitive advantage through knowledge of other results, CAF scheduled all matches within each group simultaneously. Group B’s matches kicked off on Monday, with simultaneous kick-off times in each pairing. Groups C and D followed on Tuesday, whilst the final group matches concluded on Wednesday, 31 December.
The format guarantees that when a team strikes their final goal or concedes the deciding own goal, their opponents face the same information vacuum, with neither side able to adjust their approach based on events unfolding elsewhere in their group.
As matches progressed through the final group stage, the tournament delivered on African football’s central promise: that AFCON rarely follows a script. The tournament’s opening two rounds offered sufficient evidence that conventional wisdom held limited predictive value.
The three teams who had progressed Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria joined the anticipated qualifiers. Yet the battles for the remaining qualification positions suggested that several upsets lay ahead. Teams considered outsiders had fought with the passion of true contenders, whilst favourites had faltered when least expected.
The knockout stage loomed, promising a completely different format. In the Round of 16, teams would face single-elimination matches, where one mistake or one moment of brilliance could determine the course of a tournament. For Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria and the 13 teams destined to join them, the competition was truly about to begin.