NGX ASI Hits Record High as $100 Oil Ignites Energy Stocks
The Nigerian equities market closed the first week of March 2026 on a bullish trajectory, as the All-Share Index (ASI) surged 2.14% week-on-week to settle at an all-time high of 196,968.15 points. This rally, which added approximately ₦2.67 trillion to investor wealth, was primarily fueled by a dramatic spike in global crude oil prices. As Middle East hostilities threaten the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude has breached the $100 per barrel threshold, prompting a frantic rotation into energy-linked equities on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
The Oil & Gas Index emerged as the week’s undisputed leader, soaring by 9.4%. Investors flocked to upstream and integrated energy firms, with Aradel Holdings hitting a new 52-week high of ₦1,300.40 after a 9.1% weekly gain. Oando and Seplat also saw heightened demand as the “war premium” on crude prices improved the outlook for domestic production margins. Analysts note that with the 2026 budget pegged at $64.85 per barrel, the current price surge provides a substantial fiscal cushion for the federal government, albeit at the cost of rising domestic energy inflation.
Industrial heavyweights provided the second leg of the market’s support. Dangote Cement and BUA Cement recorded gains of 4.6% and 2.7% respectively, as the Industrial Goods Index climbed 3.9%. This move suggests that institutional investors are looking past immediate inflationary pressures toward the long-term infrastructure spend promised by the administration. However, the rally was not universal; the Insurance and Consumer Goods indices both dipped into the red, as concerns over rising input costs and a potential interest rate hike weighed on sentiment.
Despite the headline gains, the underlying market activity showed signs of exhaustion. Trading volume and value plummeted by 32.7% and 31.7%, respectively, indicating that many retail investors are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach. The negative market breadth, with 58 decliners against 44 gainers, suggests that the rally is being concentrated in a few high-cap “bellwether” stocks, leaving smaller equities to struggle under broader macroeconomic weight.
Financial institutions reported a muted week, with the Banking Index edging up a mere 0.2%. While higher interest rates (currently at 26.50%) theoretically boost bank margins, the threat of increased non-performing loans (NPLs) in a high-cost environment remains a persistent fear. Institutions like Zenith Bank and GTCO remained the preferred liquidity anchors, but lacked the explosive momentum seen in the energy sector.
The outlook for the coming week remains tethered to the clouds over the Persian Gulf. Cordros Capital analysts warn that while the “oil windfall” is a net positive for the ASI, any further escalation that pushes crude toward $150 could trigger a “risk-off” flight from emerging markets. For now, the Nigerian bourse remains an accidental beneficiary of global instability, provided the local economy can withstand the resulting pressure on the naira and domestic pump prices.