Christopher Okpoko
Within hours of his inauguration on Monday, January 20, 2025, as the 47th President of the United States, President Donald Trump signed several executive orders and presidential memoranda to fulfill several of his campaign promises. According to The Reporter Magazine, “the guest list for the inaugural ceremony that took place indoors this year due to cold weather in Washington, D.C., featured former presidents, Silicon Valley billionaires, social media personalities, and leaders from Europe, Latin America, and Asia. There was not a single African leader invited to attend, although reports indicate that many had shown interest in doing so. Insiders say Trump sidelined African leaders due to the prevalence of corruption, bad governance, and inefficiency on the continent, among other things”.
As we move further into the 21st century, the complexities of global politics continue to evolve, with nations grappling not only with internal challenges but also their positions on the international stage. One significant actor in this global arena is the United States, where policies emanating from its leadership can have far-reaching effects across the globe. With Donald Trump having returned to a prominent role in U.S. politics, it is essential to consider how his policies may influence Nigeria and other African nations in the next four years.
The list of actions Trump promised during his campaign for his second term covered the economy and trade, foreign policy, immigration and border control, and energy, among others. One potential impact on Nigeria and Africa at large lies in his administration’s trade policies. Trump’s trade and economic promises have ranged from general sentiments to ultra-specific policy proposals, and one of particular interest is:
Imposing tariffs on imports from foreign countries, including a 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico and an even higher rate for Chinese goods.
The United States is the largest foreign investor in Nigeria, with U.S. foreign direct investment concentrated largely in the petroleum/mining and wholesale trade sectors. In 2022, the two-way trade in goods between the United States and Nigeria totaled over $8.1 billion. At $3.4 billion in 2022, Nigeria is the second largest U.S. export destination in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Q2 2024, Nigeria’s total merchandise trade stood at N31,892.46 billion representing a decrease of 3.76% over the value recorded in the preceding quarter and a rise of 150.39% compared to the value recorded in the corresponding period of 2023. In the quarter under review, exports accounted for 60.89% of total trade with a value of N19,418.93 billion, showing a marginal increase of 1.31% compared to the value recorded in Q1 2024 (N19,167.36) billion and a 201.76% rise over the value recorded in the second quarter of 2023 (N6,435.13) billion. The U.S. exports to Nigeria include vehicles, wheat, machinery, fuels, and plastics. Nigerian exports to the United States include crude oil, cocoa, cashew nuts, and animal feed. Multiple U.S.-based film and entertainment companies are active in Nigeria, and Nigeria’s creative industries have significant export potential. (CIA World Factbook and NBS)
With a strong emphasis on protecting American jobs and industries, Trump’s government may seek to renegotiate trade agreements that he deemed unfavorable to the United States as he did in his first term. For African nations, including Nigeria, this could lead to significant disruptions in trade relations. Historically, U.S. engagement with Africa has been through programs that encourage exports from African countries, such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). If trade agreements are re-evaluated or curtailed, Nigeria could face reduced access to the American market, hampering its economic growth and limiting opportunities for local businesses to expand.
In addition to trade, the effect of Trump’s presidency on Nigeria can be scrutinized through its foreign aid policies. The U.S. is a significant provider of financial assistance to Nigeria, aimed at addressing various issues ranging from health (especially HIV/AIDS) to security concerns related to the Boko Haram insurgency. According to the U.S. Embassy and Consulate in Nigeria’s website, in 2024, the United States provided financial assistance to Nigeria for humanitarian aid, disaster relief, healthcare, and security as follows:
Humanitarian aid ($27 million) as part of a $536 million humanitarian aid package for Sub-Saharan Africa; $927 million required to meet the needs of 4.4 million people in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe States; Over $6.5 million provided to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to address flood-related humanitarian needs; Disaster relief- nearly $100 million provided to respond to the urgent needs of those impacted by disasters, including floods.
Trump’s budget proposals may tend towards a reduction in foreign aid expenditures, reflecting his administration’s inclination towards prioritizing domestic funding over international commitments. If implemented, these cuts could undermine critical development programs in Nigeria, exacerbating challenges related to poverty, health, and education. Furthermore, diminished support could weaken Nigeria’s capacity to tackle pressing security threats, potentially leading to increased instability not only within Nigeria but across the West African region.
However, recent reports indicate that the Nigerian government has already launched a committee to develop a transition and sustainability plan for USAID-funded health programs following U.S. President Donald Trump’s 90-day halt of most foreign aid. According to the health minister, the multi-ministerial committee aims to secure new financial support for critical health programs to ensure that patients receiving treatment for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria do not experience setbacks amid the uncertainty over U.S. foreign policy.
Diplomatic relations serve as another crucial area that may be affected by Trump’s presidency. During his first term, there was a noticeable shift toward transactional diplomacy rather than the more collaborative approach seen in previous administrations. Trump’s unfiltered rhetoric and unpredictable nature could alienate important allies in Africa, including Nigeria. For instance, his comments regarding African nations often reflected a lack of sensitivity towards the continent’s complexities and challenges. Such language could foster resentment and create friction that complicates diplomatic relationships. If key African leaders perceive the U.S. as an impulsive partner, trust may erode, impacting cooperative efforts on mutual issues like governance, human rights, and economic partnership.
On border and immigration, Trump promised to:
Close the border and carry out the “largest mass deportation program in history.”
End birthright citizenship, the policy that automatically grants citizenship to any person born in the U.S., regardless of his or her parents’ legal status.
Restore the travel ban from his first term that barred people from five Muslim-majority countries as well as North Korea and Venezuela and expand it to include refugees from the Gaza Strip.
According to The New York Times, “the number of Africans apprehended at the southern border jumped to 58,462 in the fiscal year 2023 from 13,406 in 2022,” with Mauritania, Senegal, Angola, and Guinea the largest sources of migration from Africa to the United States. These, of course, are only the reported numbers, and illegal migration, by definition, is not fully accounted for. And while the number of African migrants entering the United States each year still pales in comparison to that of Latin American migrants, they are no longer insignificant numbers. As refugee, asylum, and immigration systems are being revised, and if 2025 brings the unprecedented level of attention and focus on deportations that the political climate is forecasting, then it’s almost inevitable that African migrants will be affected by whatever immigration policies the new administration implements.
Deportations to African countries are nothing new, as US Immigration and Customs Enforcement have routinely carried out removal flights to the continent. What would be different is the scale and the political landscape around them. There is a strong possibility that a significant number of African migrants will be returned to their countries of origin as part of a broader push against illegal immigration.
Trump’s actions regarding immigration and his stance on Muslims and African immigrants will contribute to shaping global perceptions of the U.S., which might echo in African nations. His travel ban targeting several predominantly Muslim countries could influence Nigeria, where large populations are affected by issues related to Islamic extremism. This could hinder collaborative international efforts to combat terrorism, as allies may be reluctant to engage with the U.S. if they feel it does not regard their strategic interests and partnerships seriously. In turn, this could have detrimental effects on regional security, affecting broad counterterrorism initiatives that are vital to Nigeria’s fight against Boko Haram and similar extremist groups.
On energy, he has one overarching goal and plans to reverse Biden’s policies:
Expand oil drilling in the U.S. and make America ‘energy dominant.’
Reverse Biden’s order setting a nationwide goal of 50% of all new cars and trucks sold being zero-emission by 2030.
Donald Trump’s campaign promise to prioritize energy independence and conventional energy resources has profound implications not only for the United States but also countries like Nigeria and other African nations. His focus on boosting domestic production of fossil fuels could shift global energy dynamics, affecting how African nations engage with energy markets.
Firstly, Trump’s emphasis on oil, coal, and natural gas may lead to increased competition in international energy markets. As America ramps up its production capabilities, Nigerian oil exports could face challenges due to potentially lower prices and a larger supply from the U.S. This could negatively impact Nigeria’s economy, which relies heavily on oil revenue. The Nigerian government may need to adapt its fiscal policies and seek alternative sectors for growth to mitigate the effects of reduced income from oil exports.
Moreover, an increase in U.S. energy exports might lead to shifts in investment patterns. African nations traditionally reliant on foreign investment from the West may need to enhance their allure to attract foreign capital amid changing geopolitical landscapes. This could foster collaborations or partnerships between African countries and emerging economies like China or India, looking to secure energy supplies to meet their growing demands.
Additionally, Trump’s approach may reinforce the focus on fossil fuels, delaying the transition to renewable energy sources. For African nations grappling with energy deficits, this could hinder progress toward sustainable energy solutions. They might find themselves in a quandary: prioritizing immediate fossil fuel development while facing the urgent need for green energy initiatives to combat climate change.
Moreover, in Trump’s first term, the U.S. disengaged from multilateral organizations and agreements, which historically provided platforms for addressing African issues. For example, the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement demonstrated a retreat from global leadership, impeding collaborative efforts towards climate change—an issue that greatly affects African nations. Nigeria, being heavily reliant on agriculture, is particularly vulnerable to climate-related phenomena like droughts and flooding. A lack of U.S. leadership could stymie international support mechanisms crucial for developing nations facing environmental challenges.
Despite the potential for diversification, the overall impact of Trump’s presidency may be fraught with uncertainties. The enduring challenges that Nigeria faces—a struggling economy, insecurity, and governance issues—require external partnerships that may be hindered by changes in U.S. policy. The potential for reduced foreign aid and trade barriers directly affects local economies and governmental capabilities, which could exacerbate existing problems.
However, the effects of Trump’s presidency may not be universally negative. Some African governments should view a more isolationist U.S. as an opportunity to diversify their international partnerships. Increasingly, countries like China and Russia have been establishing themselves as alternative partners for African nations, offering investments and trade relations that might be less conditional on governance and human rights records. This shift may encourage Nigerian and African leaders to explore new avenues for bilateral cooperation, diminishing dependence on U.S. support and fostering greater autonomy.
Moreover, the broader implications of Trump’s presidency extend beyond Nigeria, affecting the perceptions of African states towards the U.S. and its commitment to the continent. If the U.S. policy reflects isolationism and self-interest, it could breed scepticism about long-term U.S. intentions, leading African nations to recalibrate their diplomatic strategies accordingly. Building relationships based on mutual respect rather than one-sided interests becomes increasingly imperative.
In conclusion, Donald Trump’s presidency presents a complex web of causes and effects that may reverberate through Nigeria and wider African nations. From altering trade dynamics and slashing foreign aid to fostering strained diplomatic relations, Trump’s actions may lay the groundwork for significant changes in U.S.-Africa interactions. While some African countries might seize the opportunity to strengthen ties elsewhere, the potential ramifications of U.S. disengagement could pose serious challenges to Nigeria’s development and stability. As the world moves deeper into the age of globalization, constructive international collaboration remains paramount for addressing the multidimensional challenges confronting Africa today. Despite the shifting tides of U.S. foreign policy, the hope is that a more interconnected world can still pave the way for equitable partnerships beneficial to both Nigeria and the African continent at large.
