Daniel Otera
Nigeria’s electoral system is on the precipice of a critical transition, with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) bracing for a leadership overhaul. Data suggests that nearly half of INEC’s senior officials will retire by the end of 2025, potentially jeopardizing the credibility of the 2027 general elections.
Experts are raising concerns that this leadership vacuum, coupled with existing logistical challenges and political pressures, could lead to an erosion of public trust and the manipulation of electoral processes (The Guardian Nigeria, 2025).
As the countdown to the 2027 elections ticks down to just 554 days, stakeholders stress the urgent need for reforms backed by data and transparent appointments to safeguard the democratic progress Nigeria has made. Without these measures, the country risks repeating past cycles marked by low voter turnout and election irregularities (Yiaga Africa, 2023).
Leadership Transition at INEC
According to a recent report by The Guardian Nigeria published on August 16, 2025, nearly half of INEC’s senior leadership comprising the chairman, national commissioners, and resident electoral commissioners (RECs) will retire between December 2025 and early 2026. This includes the chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, who will step down in October 2025 after completing his two-term limit, as mandated by Nigeria’s Electoral Act (The Guardian Nigeria, 2025).
INEC’s leadership structure includes one chairman, 12 national commissioners, and 37 RECs across the states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Recent adjustments, such as the swearing-in of two new national commissioners by President Bola Tinubu in May 2025, have been made to fill vacancies. However, experts warn that the impending retirement of up to six national commissioners could disrupt institutional memory and operational continuity, leaving the commission vulnerable to political influence and inefficiencies (Pulse Nigeria, 2025).
Historical Context and Voter Disillusionment
Nigeria’s history of electoral challenges highlights the risks posed by leadership instability. The 2007 general elections were marked by widespread fraud, voter apathy, and violence, with a voter turnout of just 57 percent. The European Union Election Observation Mission documented over 1,000 incidents of irregularities, including ballot stuffing, leading to a legitimacy crisis that prompted then-President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua to establish the Uwais Electoral Reform Committee in 2008. The committee’s recommendations, particularly the need to insulate INEC from executive influence, remain critical today (TheCable, 2025).
In recent years, voter turnout has steadily declined. The 2019 elections saw 84.004 million registered voters, but only 34.75 percent cast their ballots. By the 2023 elections, voter registration had risen to 93.47 million, but only 26.72 percent participated. This drop in turnout is closely tied to socioeconomic factors, such as poverty and inequality. Regions like the North-West, where poverty rates exceed 70 percent, recorded turnouts as low as 25 percent in 2023, as noted by the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILDS, 2023).
Electoral System Failures and Technological Gaps
Recent elections have also exposed systemic weaknesses. Yiaga Africa’s post-election assessment of the 2023 polls flagged significant failures in the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) at over 20 percent of polling units. Over-voting was particularly prevalent in states like Rivers (15 percent of units) and Lagos (12 percent), highlighting technological gaps that could worsen under leadership instability (Yiaga Africa, 2023).
Moreover, the quality of the electoral process is further undermined by logistical challenges and the politicization of INEC appointments. The 2023 elections were marred by a lack of trust in the commission’s ability to manage the election effectively. As noted by Yiaga Africa’s Executive Director, Samson Itodo, the absence of competent, independent leadership in INEC threatens to compromise the quality of future elections: “We must be worried about these transitions. Without investment in people with the competence and independence to manage elections, INEC could be weakened, and the quality of the next elections will be compromised” (Yiaga Africa, 2025).
Recognizing these vulnerabilities, INEC has embarked on a reform agenda. In May 2025, the commission unveiled a 142-point plan aimed at improving logistics, technology, and inclusivity ahead of 2027. This includes phasing out the Permanent Voter Cards as the sole accreditation tool and enhancing electronic result transmission, building on the provisions of the 2022 Electoral Act. However, the legislative process for amendments remains sluggish, and many of the proposed reforms have yet to be implemented (Punch Nigeria, 2025).
The Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2025 (HB.2479), which focuses on improving local election integrity and cost-effectiveness, was introduced in the House of Representatives in August 2025, and the Senate is expected to advance similar reforms soon. Additionally, the inclusion of diaspora voting, as suggested by Yiaga Africa’s 2023 report, could boost voter turnout by an estimated 5-7 percent, offering a glimmer of hope for increased civic participation (Yiaga Africa, 2023).
With just over 550 days left until the 2027 elections, the urgency for reforms is palpable. The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) has warned that without early trust-building measures, voter turnout in 2027 could dip below 25 percent, further eroding the legitimacy of the electoral process (CDD, 2025).
Experts have called for a more transparent and accountable appointment process for INEC’s leadership.
The proposal, echoed by civil society organizations, includes public shortlists and citizen objections to ensure that leadership appointments are free from political interference.
As Kole Shettima of the MacArthur Foundation aptly stated, “The president should be mindful of his legacy. A transparent appointment process could restore trust ahead of 2027” (MacArthur Foundation, 2025).
Regional Comparisons and International Context
Looking beyond Nigeria, other African nations have shown that reform and transparency can yield results. Ghana’s 2024 elections saw a 62 percent voter turnout and a high degree of electoral commission autonomy, ranking higher than Nigeria in the Perceptions of Electoral Integrity (PEI) Index (PEI, 2025). South Africa also demonstrated strong electoral integrity, with a turnout exceeding 66 percent in 2024 (UNDP, 2025).
In contrast, Nigeria’s electoral management body (EMB) autonomy has fallen, as highlighted by the 2025 V-Dem report, which shows a decline in Nigeria’s EMB score from 0.60 in 2019 to 0.55 in 2025.
This decline correlates with a rise in election irregularities, putting Nigeria at risk of amplifying continental trends of democratic regression (V-Dem, 2025).
The future of Nigeria’s electoral integrity hinges on the decisions made in the coming months. The leadership transition at INEC, compounded by existing systemic issues, could prove to be the tipping point for the 2027 elections.
If the necessary reforms are not implemented if the commission’s leadership remains politically compromised and the technology is not updated Nigeria could see its democracy unravel.
For this to be avoided, a commitment to transparency, independence, and data-driven reforms is crucial. As the countdown to the 2027 elections continues, Nigerians must hold their leaders accountable, ensuring that the progress made since the country’s last electoral crisis is not lost.