Raphael Uche
Japan’s ruling coalition is poised to lose its majority in the upper house following Sunday’s elections, according to exit polls, increasing political pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government.
The potential loss comes at a critical moment, as Japan faces an August 1 deadline to negotiate a trade deal with the United States to avoid punitive tariffs.
Exit polls conducted by public broadcaster NHK showed the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito winning between 32 and 51 seats out of the 50 required to maintain control of the 248-seat chamber.
Other networks projected 41–43 seats, which would mark the coalition’s worst performance since 1999.
The defeat follows October’s lower house election, where Ishiba’s administration suffered its weakest showing in 15 years, making it vulnerable to no-confidence motions and internal calls for leadership change.
Rising consumer prices, especially a sharp increase in rice costs, dominated voter concerns. Opposition parties campaigning on tax cuts and stricter immigration policies made significant gains.
“The LDP was largely playing defence in this election, being on the wrong side of a key voter issue,” said David Boling, a director at Eurasia Group.
The populist Sanseito party, with its “Japanese First” platform and hardline stance on immigration, emerged as a major winner, expected to secure 10–15 seats, up from just one previously.
Adding to economic concerns, Japan’s government faces pressure from investors over its growing debt. A trade impasse with the U.S. could further challenge the world’s fourth-largest economy.