Chris Okpoko
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report for the third quarter of 2025, released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), showed that Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.98 percent year-on-year in real terms. It grew by 4.23 percent (year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2025 and by 3.13 percent in the first quarter of 2025, averaging 3.78 percent. According to the NBS, in the quarter under review, aggregate GDP at basic prices stood at N113,587,291.77 million in nominal terms or $78.50 billion at at an exchange rate of N1,447.42.
President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda for 2030, a medium-term development plan focused on achieving a $1 trillion economy through key priorities such as economic reform, national security, and improved agriculture, is a major goal that requires a significant growth rate and sustained reforms. The target of reaching a $1 trillion economy by 2030 looms large, but the question that arises is whether a GDP average growth rate of around 3.78 percent can propel this ambition. With projections indicating a 3.98 percent GDP for the third quarter of 2025, coupled with the likelihood of achieving the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) anticipated 3.9 percent GDP growth for 2025, this article delves into the economic factors at play and the feasibility of hitting such an ambitious goal.
Nigeria has faced numerous challenges over the years, including political instability, corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and fluctuating oil prices. Despite these obstacles, the Nigerian economy has shown resilience. Recent data indicate a gradual recovery, as fiscal strategies and reforms have begun to yield positive results. Currently, the IMF’s forecast of 3.9 percent for 2025 marks a steady increase from previous years, reflecting potential stability and growth.
However, aiming for a $1 trillion economy requires more than just optimistic projections; it necessitates an unwavering commitment to structural reforms and economic diversification. The notion of a 3.78 percent GDP growth rate might appear modest against the backdrop of significant global economic dynamics, yet it could represent a crucial stepping stone if navigated correctly.
The rate of 3.78 percent poses both promises and challenges. Historically, Nigeria’s economy has relied heavily on oil exports, making it susceptible to fluctuations in global oil prices. This dependency highlights the need for diversification. However, compelling growth could still emerge from sectors such as agriculture, technology, and services. Nigeria is witnessing a burgeoning tech ecosystem, boasting numerous startups that are attracting international investments.
Furthermore, agricultural reforms aimed at increasing productivity can significantly contribute to GDP growth. A focus on improving farming techniques, expanding arable land, and enhancing supply chains could help bolster food security while simultaneously driving economic development. If Nigeria capitalizes on these sectors in addition to oil, its GDP could start to grow significantly.
While the prospects are brighter, significant hurdles remain. Infrastructure deficits continue to plague the country, inhibiting business efficiency and capital flow. Roads, railways, and power supply are critical areas requiring substantial investment. Nigeria needs approximately $100 billion annually to bridge its infrastructure deficit, a figure supported by several sources, including the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC), the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF), and the African Development Bank (AfDB).
Governance issues remain a major concern. Corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies erode investor confidence, stifling growth potential. The government must enact policies that promote transparency, ease the business environment, and create a level playing field for all economic players. Effective anti-corruption measures, alongside clarity in regulatory frameworks, would foster an atmosphere conducive to both local and foreign investments.
With over 200 million people, Nigeria boasts one of the youngest populations in the world. This demographic dividend presents immense potential for economic growth if harnessed effectively. By investing in education, vocational training, and entrepreneurship programs, Nigeria could cultivate a skilled workforce ready to contribute meaningfully to the economy.
Technological literacy will be crucial as the global economy continues to embrace digitization. If the government and private sectors prioritize youth engagement through educational reforms and job creation, a motivated and productive workforce could accelerate growth beyond the projected rates.
The external environment also plays a pivotal role in Nigeria’s economic trajectory. Global market trends, oil price volatility, and geopolitical stability influence the nation’s economic performance. As economies worldwide grapple with the post-pandemic realities, fluctuations in demand for oil could impact Nigeria’s oil revenues.
Simultaneously, global shifts towards renewable energy sources highlight the need for Nigeria to consider developing alternative energy resources. By investing in renewables, Nigeria could not only stabilize its energy market but also position itself as a leader in the evolving global energy landscape.
To facilitate a substantial leap toward the $1 trillion goal, Nigeria must implement strategic interventions. These include:
1. Diversifying the Economy: Beyond oil, sectors like agriculture, technology, and tourism need prioritization. Building infrastructure and capabilities in these sectors can mitigate risks associated with oil dependence.
2. Enhancing Governance: Establishing transparent systems and reducing bureaucratic bottlenecks will attract foreign investments. Strengthening institutions and promoting public-private partnerships will also play critical roles.3. Investing in Human Capital: Education and skill development must be at the forefront. Programs targeting youth employment and training in emerging sectors can boost productivity and innovation.
4. Infrastructure Development: Addressing infrastructure deficits through public-private partnerships (PPPs) and innovative financing solutions can pave the way for enhanced productivity and economic growth.
5. Strengthening Trade Partnerships: Expanding trade agreements and exploring new markets could diversify Nigeria’s export base, reducing vulnerability to external shocks.
6. Combating Insecurity: Resolving insecurity issues could significantly accelerate GDP growth by attracting investment, stabilizing economic activities like agriculture and trade, reducing unemployment, and freeing up government funds for development. Insecurity currently hampers growth by deterring investment, disrupting supply chains, and diverting resources from public services to security expenditures.
In conclusion, while the aspiration for Nigeria to achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2030 amid a modest growth rate of 3.78 percent may seem challenging, it remains within reach with the right strategies. By focusing on diversification, governance improvements, human capital development, and infrastructure investment, Nigeria can navigate its economic hurdles. The secret is in comprehensive and disciplined economic management, creating an environment that promotes sustainable growth. If these elements align seamlessly, Nigeria may not only meet its ambitious target but sustain it well into the future, catapulting the nation into a new era of economic prosperity.