Hauwa Ali
Climate change is hitting Africa where it hurts most, its health.
A sweeping new report warns that rising heat, disease, and food insecurity could cost the global economy over $1.5 trillion by 2050, with Africa carrying the heaviest burden. The message is blunt: what’s coming isn’t just a health crisis, it’s an economic one, and time to act is running out.
The study, released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and Boston Consulting Group (BCG), finds that Africa is uniquely exposed to climate-driven illnesses, from malaria and diarrhea to heat-related deaths and zoonotic outbreaks. With fragile health systems already stretched thin, the continent is facing a collision of environmental and economic pressures that threaten to undo decades of progress.
“We’re talking about a continent that already carries 94% of global malaria cases,” said Regina Osih, BCG’s Associate Director for Global Health in Johannesburg. “When you add a 63% jump in zoonotic diseases and over half a million diarrheal deaths in a single year, you see just how stretched African health systems already are.”
The numbers aren’t just grim statistics; they describe real people living through real emergencies.
Take malaria, for example. Mosquitoes thrive in warm, wet conditions, and as the planet heats up, their territory expands. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported 233 million malaria cases in Africa in 2022, 94% of the global total.
Meanwhile, diarrheal diseases are surging as floods contaminate drinking water and droughts dry up wells. In 2022 alone, 515,000 Africans died from diarrheal illnesses, according to the WEF/BCG report. For families living without reliable access to clean water, climate change is turning daily survival into a gamble.
Then there’s the rise in zoonotic diseases, those that jump from animals to humans. Africa has a 63% increase in such outbreaks over the last decade, caused by deforestation, changing rainfall patterns, and expanding human settlements that disturb wildlife habitats.
Each of these health threats feeds into the next. When farmers fall ill, food production drops. When crops fail, malnutrition grows. When hunger spreads, immune systems weaken. Climate change, in short, is dismantling the building blocks of health.
The WEF/BCG report does what few have tried before: it puts a price tag on illness.
Across just three sectors — food and agriculture, the built environment, and healthcare, climate-related diseases could wipe out more than $1.5 trillion in global output by 2050.
Food and Agriculture: $740 billion in projected losses as heat, drought, and pests devastate crops.
Built Environment: $570 billion in lost productivity from heat stress and unsafe work conditions.
Healthcare Workforce: $200 billion in output lost to illness and absenteeism.
And that’s just a mid-range scenario. The true costs, when insurance claims and indirect effects are included, could be much higher.
For Africa, where two-thirds of the workforce depends on agriculture and informal labour, the economic blow will be devastating. Lower harvests mean less food, higher prices, and worsening hunger, all of which further weaken communities’ ability to cope with disease.
The data is already showing up in daily life across the continent.
In Zimbabwe, malaria cases have spiked sharply, with health officials reporting over 110,000 infections and hundreds of deaths after prolonged rains. “The mosquitoes are here longer than ever before,” said one community health worker in Manicaland Province. “People are sick for months.”
In Nigeria, extreme weather swings, flooding in the south, and drought in the north, have wrecked farms and driven up food prices. The government declared a food security emergency in 2024, warning that millions face hunger as climate shocks disrupt staple crops such as maize and cassava.
Across East Africa, drought has displaced families, dried up rivers, and pushed malnutrition to crisis levels. The Africa CDC says the continent now faces two new disease outbreaks every week, 75% of them zoonotic. The climate is shifting faster than the health systems can adapt.
For many African nations, the crisis is not just the climate, but it’s capacity.
Hospitals and clinics across the continent are under-equipped and under-staffed. Rural areas often lack power, clean water, or the cold chains necessary to store vaccines. When floods destroy roads, communities can be cut off from care for weeks.
The World Health Organization warns that between 2030 and 2050, climate change could cause an additional 250,000 deaths every year in Africa from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress, and that’s a conservative estimate.
Health workers are already struggling to keep up. “We used to worry about outbreaks once or twice a year,” said a nurse in Uganda’s Lira District. “Now it feels like every season brings a new one.”
The consequences extend far beyond hospitals. As the report notes, health is a proxy for productivity.
When heatwaves keep construction workers home, projects stall. When floods eradicate crops, food prices soar. When droughts force migration, schools and clinics break down under new pressures. The chain reaction undermines not just individual livelihoods, but national economies.
“Protecting people’s health isn’t just humanitarian, it’s strategic,” said Eric White, Head of Climate Resilience at the WEF. “If companies don’t safeguard workers now, their entire supply chains could break down later.”
And when African economies stumble, the effects echo globally, from disrupted exports to rising global food prices and shifting migration flows.
Despite the grim outlook, the continent isn’t powerless. Across Africa, scientists, entrepreneurs, and communities are finding creative ways to adapt.
In Kenya, farmers are experimenting with drought-tolerant sorghum and climate-resilient maize to keep harvests alive. In Ghana, solar-powered cold rooms are preserving vaccines and food. And in West Africa, engineers are developing cooling jackets and low-energy fans to protect outdoor workers from heatstroke.
New insurance models are emerging too, like parametric insurance, which automatically pays out when temperatures or rainfall hit certain levels, helping farmers recover before hunger sets in.
The WEF/BCG report argues that investing early in such innovations is not just smart, it’s profitable. Companies that develop heat-stable medicines, resilient crops, or cooling technologies will find new markets as climate risks grow.
Funding remains far below what’s needed. Most African countries allocate less than 5% of GDP to health, and climate adaptation finance remains concentrated in energy and infrastructure, instead of health.
Data is another challenge. Without accurate, integrated climate-health monitoring, it’s difficult to track outbreaks or target vulnerable regions effectively.
And then, there’s coordination. Health, agriculture, and environment ministries often work in silos. Effective climate adaptation requires them to work together, and that’s still rare.
The WEF’s message is clear: health resilience must become part of Africa’s core economic strategy, not an afterthought.
“The $1.5 trillion figure should be a wake-up call,” said Regina Osih. “If we don’t act now, the cost later will be unbearable.”
That means investing in climate-resilient hospitals, warning systems, sanitation infrastructure, and local health training. It means ensuring that every climate finance dollar considers its impact on health. It means businesses must start treating worker safety and wellbeing as part of long-term sustainability.
The upcoming B20 Summit in South Africa, themed “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability,” will be a chance to push that agenda, linking private capital with public action to build a more climate-resilient health system.
At the heart of all these numbers are people, farmers, nurses, and children, trying to survive the most unpredictable climate in modern history.
Climate change isn’t some distant threat to Africa. It’s the heat that scorches the maize fields, the flood that sweeps through a clinic, the fever that keeps a parent from working. And while the science paints a grim picture, the choices made now, by governments, by businesses, by communities, can still rewrite the ending.
If Africa can build the systems to withstand what’s coming, it won’t just survive the climate crisis. It could lead the way in showing the world what true resilience looks like.