Mathew Amaechi
Nigeria’s key crude oil grades—Bonny Light, Brass River, and Qua Iboe—have jumped above $77 per barrel, marking their highest levels in months, as escalating military confrontations between Israel and Iran rattle global energy markets.
Data from Oilprice.com as of Sunday shows Bonny Light trading at $78.62 per barrel, with Brass River and Qua Iboe closing at $77.09 and $77.14, respectively. This sharp uptick represents a significant leap from the sub-$65 average recorded earlier in the week.
The price rally comes on the back of renewed geopolitical instability in the Middle East, after Israel launched targeted military strikes on Iran. Although oil infrastructure has so far remained untouched, market fears over a wider regional conflict and possible disruption to global oil transit routes have fueled a surge in crude futures.
“The geopolitical risk premium is back,” Oilprice.com noted, adding that Brent futures rose to $74.23 per barrel, while WTI climbed to $73.
For Nigeria, the higher prices offer a rare fiscal silver lining. With the 2025 national budget benchmarked at $75 per barrel, the current figures surpass expectations and could provide the government with short-term revenue relief.
However, energy experts caution that this windfall may be bittersweet. Higher crude prices are likely to raise the cost of petrol and diesel domestically, given Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined fuel and the pressure it places on local refiners’ margins.
“There’s a fine line between oil revenue gains and inflationary consequences,” said Lagos-based energy analyst, Temitope Afolabi. “A sustained spike in crude prices could feed into higher landing costs for fuel, potentially leading to another round of pump price adjustments.”
Markets were further unsettled over the weekend by Israel’s precautionary shutdown of some gas production facilities and growing fears that shipping through the Red Sea or the crucial Strait of Hormuz could be targeted. The Strait is a vital oil artery, with nearly 19 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passing through daily—around 20% of global demand.
Though the current price surge is largely conflict-driven, and not rooted in supply-demand imbalances or OPEC+ production cuts, its implications are global. A prolonged disruption could stress oil-importing economies and compound existing inflation woes.
This latest spike follows months of price swings triggered by trade tensions and broader geopolitical instability. With no clear de-escalation in sight, oil markets are bracing for further volatility in the days ahead.
