Chijioke Gabriel
Nigeria’s hopes of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup have been significantly boosted after the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) upheld FIFA’s decision to deduct six points from Equatorial Guinea for fielding an ineligible player.
The sanction stemmed from striker Emilio Nsue’s participation in World Cup qualifying matches despite not having received proper clearance to switch allegiance from Spain, where he previously played at youth level. Nsue scored decisive goals in Equatorial Guinea’s 1–0 wins over Namibia and Liberia in November 2024.
In May, FIFA overturned both results, awarding 3–0 victories to Equatorial Guinea’s opponents. CAS has now dismissed the country’s appeal, confirming the punishment.
Shake-up in Group H Standings
The ruling has dramatic implications:
Equatorial Guinea has dropped from second place with 16 points to fifth with 10 points in Group H.
Namibia has risen to second place with 15 points, staying in contention for the continental play-offs.
More importantly for Nigeria, the reshuffle improves their chances of qualifying as one of the four best runners-up across Africa’s nine groups.
Currently, Group C is led by South Africa (17 points), followed by Benin (14 points) and Nigeria (11 points). The Super Eagles must finish strongly in their final fixtures against Lesotho (away) and Benin (home) to remain in the race.
Possible Twist with South Africa
Nigeria’s hopes could be further lifted if FIFA sanctions South Africa, who are under investigation for fielding Teboho Mokoena in a March fixture against Lesotho. Mokoena had accumulated two yellow cards in earlier matches and should have served a suspension.
If found guilty, South Africa could lose the three points from that game, dropping them from 17 to 14 points, which would tighten Group C and create an opening for Nigeria.
Path to the World Cup
Africa will send nine teams directly to the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, while the four best runners-up will contest play-offs for a spot in the inter-confederation play-offs.
With the Equatorial Guinea case setting a precedent and South Africa under review, Nigeria’s qualification prospects are suddenly looking brighter. Victories in their upcoming fixtures could put the Super Eagles back on course for a place at the global showpiece.