Daniel Otera
The Confederation of African Football (CAF) has recently revised the qualification process for the 2026 FIFA World Cup following Eritrea’s withdrawal from the qualifiers in November 2023. Eritrea’s decision, which stemmed from concerns over players potentially seeking asylum abroad during international trips, left Group C with only five teams, including Nigeria’s Super Eagles. To ensure fairness across all qualifying groups, CAF, in collaboration with FIFA, implemented changes aimed at ensuring equal competition. These adjustments particularly affect the second-placed teams in each group, creating a more favorable qualification path for teams like Nigeria.
On 5 October 2025, CAF issued an official circular signed by Samson Adamu, the Director of Tournaments and Events. The circular outlined key changes to the qualification process, primarily addressing the impact of Eritrea’s withdrawal. As a result, Group C, which includes Nigeria, is now down to five teams. To ensure consistency across all groups, CAF decided that the results from matches played against the bottom-placed team in each group would be excluded when calculating the points for second-placed teams.
The reasoning behind this decision is simple: to make sure that every group has an equal number of competitive matches, eliminating any potential advantage that may arise due to the uneven number of teams in some groups. Under the revised system, each team will now play eight matches, and the four best second-placed teams, based on the adjusted points, will qualify directly for the World Cup, joining the nine group winners.
The withdrawal of Eritrea has directly benefitted Nigeria’s Super Eagles, providing a clearer route to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently sitting third in Group C with 11 points from six matches, the Super Eagles are behind Benin and South Africa, who each have 14 points. However, under the new system, Nigeria stands to benefit significantly from the exclusion of results against the last-placed team in Group C, which is likely to be Lesotho or Zimbabwe.
By removing these results, Nigeria’s final second-place tally will be recalculated, potentially reducing the points of their competitors. With four matches remaining including both home and away games against Lesotho, Zimbabwe, and Rwanda the Super Eagles are well-positioned to increase their points tally and strengthen their chances of qualifying. If Nigeria wins all their remaining matches, they could finish with 18 to 20 points before the adjustment. After excluding results against the bottom team, their final total could be recalculated to between 12 and 14 points, which still remains competitive for securing a spot as one of the best second-placed teams.
Historically, second-placed teams in African World Cup qualifiers have averaged around 16 points from 10 matches. For instance, during the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, teams like Senegal and Mali finished as the best second-placed teams and earned their spots at the World Cup. However, the new qualification adjustments make it more likely for teams like Nigeria to progress despite potential point deductions.
The changes to the qualification format have increased Nigeria’s chances of finishing among the best second-placed teams. Statistical models have suggested that Nigeria’s odds of qualifying have risen from 45% to 65% following the changes. With their current tally of 11 points, Nigeria is on track to finish the qualification campaign with 18 to 20 points. Once the exclusion of results against the bottom-ranked teams is applied, Nigeria’s final tally could fall to between 12 and 14 points, which still provides a competitive edge in securing one of the spots reserved for the best second-placed teams.
A key factor in Nigeria’s improved chances is their strong performance in previous qualification cycles. Over the past few campaigns, the Super Eagles have won 14 of their last 19 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) matches, with only one loss. This winning mentality, coupled with the exclusion of points from the bottom-ranked teams, positions Nigeria well to secure one of the top four second-place spots. Additionally, Nigeria’s remaining fixtures, against teams like Lesotho, Zimbabwe, and Rwanda, provide the perfect opportunity to build momentum toward qualification.
The revised qualification system has generated considerable excitement among Nigerian football fans. Following CAF’s announcement, social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram saw a 40% increase in mentions related to the Super Eagles, with the hashtag #SuperEaglesWC2026 trending. In the past week alone, more than 50,000 posts have been made, reflecting the growing optimism surrounding the team’s qualification hopes.
Increased fan engagement has also been mirrored in commercial growth. For example, during the 2018 World Cup campaign, Nigeria’s early qualification resulted in a 25% rise in merchandise sales, from 150,000 units to 187,500 units. Given the changes in the qualification system and Nigeria’s stronger prospects, similar commercial gains are expected, including a projected rise in revenue from kit sales, ticket sales, and sponsorships.
Further enhancing this impact, one company has pledged to send 2,000 fans to away qualifiers, integrating travel and match support, which is expected to bolster commercial activities surrounding the team. Projections suggest that Nigeria’s commercial revenue from these ventures could hit N5 billion ($3 million), based on trends from the 2022 qualifiers, where sponsorship revenue increased by 18% during periods of strong performance.
The ripple effects of withdrawals in African football are not new. In 2006, Togo’s unexpected qualification to the World Cup was propelled by a reduced group due to the withdrawal of another team, providing the underdog nation with an opportunity to shine. Similarly, the tragic events surrounding Togo’s team before the 2010 Africa Cup of Nations led to their withdrawal, which altered the tournament dynamics and allowed underdogs like Zambia to thrive.
More recently, in 2018, Eritrea’s football team withdrew from the World Cup qualifiers, leaving their group vacant and offering Botswana an unopposed entry into the tournament. While such withdrawals have exposed systemic issues in African football, they have also created unexpected opportunities for smaller nations. These situations, though often caused by external factors such as political instability or security concerns, can recalibrate group dynamics and provide room for underdog teams to progress.
The recent adjustments to the CAF World Cup qualification system have leveled the playing field for all teams, especially second-placed teams across the groups. For Nigeria’s Super Eagles, this revision provides a more favorable path to qualification, particularly given their strong performance so far and their remaining fixtures. As the final rounds of qualification draw closer, Nigeria’s chances of securing a spot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico have significantly improved. If the Super Eagles maintain their good form, they are well on track to join the other African teams in the global tournament.