Temitayo Olumofe
On any given day in Nigeria’s major cities, you can see something most people wish would just go away: long queues at petrol stations. Under the hot sun, Nigerians line up, sometimes for hours, hoping to get enough fuel to power their cars, generators, and businesses. Children walk to school past fuel trucks stranded on quiet roads. Small business owners complain about shutting their shops early. Everyone asks the same question.
For years, the Nigerian government has promised change. Billions of dollars have been spent fixing the country’s giant refineries, the Port Harcourt and Warri plants at the center of this debate. But despite all this effort and money, these refineries remain mostly silent. When, on December 21, 2023, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) announced the “mechanical completion” of the Port Harcourt refinery, many believed relief was finally in sight.Only months later, with fuel shortages still common, the silence from the refineries is louder than ever.
Some people say the problem is technical. Others believe it’s about money. But a growing number of industry insiders are telling Nigerians the truth might be much simpler
For decades, the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries have symbolized Nigeria’s promise—and failure—when it comes to managing national resources. Built to be the backbone of Nigeria’s domestic fuel supply, both complexes were supposed to make the country self-sufficient, refining millions of liters of petrol and kerosene every day.
On December 21, 2023, loud headlines accompanied NNPC’s announcement: the Port Harcourt refinery had reached “mechanical completion” after over two years of intense rehabilitation work and nearly $1.5billion in investments. Officials celebrated the achievement, and the public waited.
By early 2025, trucks idled at the refinery’s loading bay, but no fuel was distributed. The usually bustling depot was quiet, and not a single tanker left with a delivery. After a brief moment of hope, the refinery’s fuel output had again fallen to zero.
The Warri refinery tells a similar story. Celebrated for coming back online by the end of 2024 after more than ten years out of operation, the company quickly announced another “planned maintenance shutdown” on January 25, 2025—less than a month after restarting production. “These intervention works are essential to ensure the production of on-specification products, particularly Automotive Gas Oil and Kerosene,” NNPC’s Chief Communications Officer, Olufemi Soneye, stated, promising that operations would resume “within a few days”.Weeks went by, and the supply remained unpredictable.
Those close to the industry say the recent rehabilitation efforts should have been enough to get things running. “After the last turnaround maintenance, these refineries are nearly as good as new, one senior oil engineer confided. Another stated, “Billions were spent. People saw the new equipment come in. If the government wanted them running, they would be running by now.
Even modernization efforts have gone past what was typical, with NNPC itself stating that the recent work at Port Harcourt and Warri exceeds traditional Turnaround Maintenance (TAM). So with all this investment and apparent progress, the public can’t help but ask, “Where is the fuel?”
Where Does All the Money Go?
Transparency has been a sore point. In 2021 alone, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved $1.48billion for the rehabilitation of both Warri and Kaduna refineries, not including the $1.5billion already claimed for Port Harcourt. Additional payments, sometimes in foreign currency and naira, continued without clear results. “We’re tired of announcements. Every time, billions go in, nothing comes out,” said one activist in Port Harcourt.
Africa’s Richest Man Feels the Pushback
In July 2024, Aliko Dangote, Africa’s wealthiest businessman and owner of the state-of-the-art $20billion Dangote Refinery, spoke frankly about the obstacles facing his private megaproject. Despite his plant being designed to refine 650,000 barrels per day and potentially solve the country’s fuel crisis, his fight has only gotten harder. According to Dangote, powerful players whose fortunes are tied to government-subsidized fuel imports are the ones quietly working to keep him—and any genuinely functioning Nigerian refinery—from succeeding.
At an investor forum in Lagos on May 4, 2025, Dangote said:
“We’re fighting, and the fight is not yet finished. But I have been fighting all my life, and I am ready and 100 percent sure I will win at the end of the day.”
He added that some interests “who for a very, very long time have made a lot of money from government-subsidised oil imports into Nigeria” were fighting to keep the refineries down.
The disputes have gone public. Instead of receiving support, Dangote’s refinery has faced regulatory blockades, uncooperative oil suppliers, and allegations about the quality of its product. On July 18, 2025, Nigeria’s downstream regulator, Farouk Ahmed, accused the refinery of producing “multiple times over the legal limit” in sulfur content, and questioned its operating license, suggesting the plant was acting as a monopoly. Dangote defended the plant’s progress, noting that initial high sulfur content had fallen, and flipped the accusation, stating:
“Some NNPC officials were benefiting from product imports, including through ownership of blending plants in Malta.”
Nigeria’s deputy oil minister later acknowledged the tension while vowing to find a solution, but the core problem lingered: powerful people profit from keeping Nigeria dependent on imported fuel.
Industry insiders voice a kind of resigned frustration. As one oil trader put it, “If all the refineries work—Dangote’s, Port Harcourt, Warri—then the fuel import business collapses. The deals, the middlemen, the off-books profits—they all disappear. Why would those in charge want that?”
The Mysterious Malta Connection—Insiders, Profits, Ghost Ships
One of the strangest twists is the rising importance of Malta, a tiny European island, in Nigeria’s fuel drama. In 2023, Nigerian petroleum imports from Malta surged from nearly zero to $2.8billion—despite no direct historical link in refining or trade. Malta’s ports have become a hub for blending and ship-to-ship transfers, often acting as a stopover for off-spec fuels from Russia and other sources which are then shipped back to Nigeria, sometimes after being “blended” to meet looser African standards.
Confidential industry reports—and public claims from Aliko Dangote himself—have pointed to close relationships between senior Nigerian officials, including members of President Bola Tinubu’s network, and the companies handling these Malta-based imports.
One explosive claim that circulated in August 2024 came from social media influencer Dan Bello, who alleged that President Tinubu’s nephew, Wale Tinubu, was using secretive companies to purchase Nigerian crude, ship it to Malta, have it refined or blended, and then sell it back to Nigeria at a huge markup. “For a year, Tinubu has sold the refined gasoline back to Nigeria at a huge markup,” the claim stated. Both Oando (Wale Tinubu’s company) and NNPC leaders strenuously denied any such ties, calling the allegations “completely false”.
An independent fact-checking organization reviewed some of the claims and concluded that while many accusations lack hard evidence, the core question remains: why does so much Nigerian crude get routed through small, offshore companies in Malta rather than being refined at home? These trade patterns favor a handful of businesses, often with deep connections to state oil allocations, which in turn raises prices for everyday Nigerians.
Consumers, meanwhile, are stuck with routine supplies of “blended” fuels, sometimes of questionable quality, brought in through elaborate international arrangements involving Malta, Russia, and intermediary companies registered in safe havens or with little real presence.
Real Transparency
The first step is honest accounting. Nigerians deserve to know where every rehabilitation dollar goes and who decides when the refineries come back online.
Experts agree: making Nigeria self-sufficient in refining its own crude is technically possible. “We can do it. Others, including Dangote, have shown it can be done. But unless government officials and their allies stop making money from imports, nothing will change,” an upstream specialist said.
Accountability From the Top
As long as those who set fuel policy are also involved in the business of imports and blending, domestic refining will be an uphill fight. Public pressure and investigative journalism will be essential in shining a light on the true beneficiaries of Nigeria’s “forever refineries”—plants that never run but always cost.
On May 27, 2025, after another costly maintenance shutdown, NNPC officials again reassured Nigerians that the country’s refinery problems could soon be solved.But without genuine reform, ordinary people fear this will be one more promise that comes and goes.
Until powerful interests both within government and in private industry are made to put Nigeria first, the pattern will repeat: refineries built at great public expense will stay silent, while a few continue to profit from keeping the nation in darkness. Only by facing these uncomfortable truths can there be hope for lasting solutions to the country’s fuel crisis. For now, the queues at the pumps remain, and the silence at the refineries continues to speak volumes