Raphael Kanu
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s 2025 economic growth forecast upward to 3.4%, a 0.4 percentage point increase from its 3.0% projection in April. The IMF also upgraded its 2026 growth estimate for Africa’s largest economy to 3.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the earlier forecast of 2.7%.
The latest projections, contained in the July 2025 edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), come alongside a general upward revision of global growth expectations. The global economy is now expected to expand by 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, representing increases of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively.
For Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF forecasts growth at 4.0% in 2025, holding steady compared to earlier estimates, before accelerating to 4.3% in 2026. The Fund attributed the regional improvement to stronger commodity prices and improved investment inflows.
Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, said the IMF’s revised projection for Nigeria aligns with the bank’s internal estimates based on recent National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. “The upward revision likely reflects improved oil production volumes and a stronger performance in the services sector,” he explained.
He, however, cautioned that while the upward trend is encouraging, the country’s growth trajectory remains modest relative to its population size and poverty levels. “Single-digit growth will not be sufficient to significantly reduce poverty or close income gaps,” Abidoye added.
The IMF noted that sustaining reforms to stabilise the macroeconomic environment, boost investor confidence, and diversify the economy would be critical in maintaining positive momentum beyond 2026.