Mohamed Garba
Nigeria has recorded a dramatic reduction in its petrol import bill, with figures plummeting by over N2 trillion in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year. This significant drop, largely attributed to the increasing domestic output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, signals a potential structural shift in the nation’s long-standing reliance on imported refined fuels.
According to the latest foreign trade statistics report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), petrol imports in Q1 2025 stood at N1.76 trillion, a staggering 54 percent year-on-year decline from the N3.81 trillion recorded in Q1 2024. This also represents a 47 percent reduction from the N3.3 trillion spent on petrol imports in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The sharp decline reverses a five-year trend of steadily rising petrol imports that culminated in an all-time high in Q1 2024. Petrol imports, which were N732 billion in Q1 2020, had surged to N1.29 trillion in Q1 2021 and further to N2.69 trillion in Q1 2022. While there was a slight dip to N2.03 trillion in Q1 2023, the subsequent spike to N3.81 trillion in Q1 2024 underscored the nation’s import dependence. The 2025 figures mark a return to pre-2022 levels, ushering in a new era for Nigeria’s petroleum trade dynamics.
The primary driver behind this remarkable turnaround is the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is steadily ramping up operations. The facility is currently producing at approximately 85 percent of its 650,000 barrels per day installed capacity, effectively displacing foreign petrol suppliers and fostering greater competition in the downstream market. This increased domestic supply has already seen petrol retail prices in Lagos drop to as low as N860 per litre in early 2025.
Despite the significant gains, the NBS report highlights that regional trade routes remain crucial in meeting domestic fuel demand, as full local sufficiency is yet to be achieved. Petrol remained Nigeria’s most imported product from ECOWAS countries in Q1 2025, accounting for N89.18 billion (44.51 percent of all imports from the region). It also represented 41.86 percent of Nigeria’s total imports from West Africa and 11.63 percent of imports from the entire African continent. Other notable petroleum-based imports from the ECOWAS region included gas oil (N23.15 billion) and petroleum bitumen (N20.58 billion).
The report further listed petrol among the top five most imported commodities nationwide, alongside gas oil, crude petroleum oils, cane sugar for refining, and durum wheat.
While the refinery’s impact is undeniable, it has not been without its initial hurdles. In March, the Dangote Refinery temporarily suspended local currency sales due to challenges in sourcing foreign exchange for crude oil purchases, which are made in dollars, while payments are received in naira. However, the Federal Government has since intervened to resolve this “naira-for-crude bottleneck,” ensuring the refinery’s continued operation and further reducing import reliance.
Looking ahead, the President of the Dangote Group and founder of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Aliko Dangote, hinted at an impending “major shakedown” in Nigeria’s downstream sector, going beyond mere price reduction. Speaking after a recent visit by President Bola Tinubu to the $20 billion refinery in Lekki, Lagos, Dangote stated, “It is not the reduction of price, it will be the total overhaul of the downstream.” He also reiterated plans for the refinery’s listing on the stock exchange, beginning with the fertilizer company this year.
Dangote expressed unwavering commitment to Nigeria’s economic transformation, emphasizing the refinery’s extensive benefits to the economy and its people, declaring that “the days of long fuel queues were over in Nigeria.” With the Dangote Refinery forging a new path, Nigeria is poised for a future with greater energy independence and a more robust domestic petroleum industry.
