NGX Firms Post Record H1 Earnings As Presidency, Data Tell Two Stories

Corporate Nigeria has just closed one of its most profitable six months on record, and the Presidency is claiming credit for it. What the underlying numbers show is a more complicated story of policy, price and timing.

The claim came on Wednesday from Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, who argued in a statement that the strong financial performance of companies listed on the Nigerian Exchange in the first half of 2026 is attributable to key economic reforms implemented by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration since mid-2023. He singled out the unification of the foreign exchange market, ministerial approvals for landmark upstream oil transactions, the naira-for-crude policy, the removal of petrol subsidy, banking recapitalisation and ongoing tax reforms.

The earnings themselves are not in dispute. Ten of the NGX’s leading blue chip companies posted combined revenue of N14.4 trillion in the first half of 2026, up from N12.84 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025, a rise of 12.1 per cent. The NGX All Share Index closed July at 245,283.68 points with market capitalisation at N158.33 trillion and a year to date return of 57.62 per cent. The Banking Index alone gained 22.10 per cent in July, the best performing sectoral indicator in the month.

The two companies the Presidency named as evidence both had exceptional halves, but their filings point to a heavy commodity contribution.

Seplat Energy reported profit after tax of $164 million for the six months to June 30, 2026, a rise of 498 per cent, on revenue of $1.82 billion, up from $1.398 billion. Gross profit rose 68 per cent to $815.9 million and production averaged 139,509 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a 4 per cent increase on the 134,492 boepd recorded in the first half of 2025. The company’s realised oil price averaged $94.13 per barrel over the period. Earnings per share rose 565 per cent to 26.6 US cents and the board declared an interim dividend of 12.0 US cents per share.

Outgoing Chief Executive Roger Brown, in the results statement, was explicit about what carried the quarter. “Our first-half performance benefited from a supportive commodity price environment, translating into strong cash generation,” he said, adding that the company had prioritised balance sheet strength by repaying $200 million of outstanding APF debt, equivalent to 20 per cent of gross debt.

Aradel Holdings, the consortium member in the Renaissance transaction, told a similar story at greater scale. Pre-tax profit reached N752.71 billion for the half year, up 293 per cent from N191.31 billion, with revenue climbing to N2.49 trillion from N368.08 billion. A tax charge of N561.67 billion, up from N44.9 billion, brought profit after tax to N191.04 billion, a more modest increase of 30.5 per cent, while total assets grew 731 per cent to N10.88 trillion. Chief Executive Adegbite Falade attributed the outcome partly to pricing, noting that “a firmer price environment supported performance, generating net cash from operating activities of N975.6 billion and a closing cash balance of N1.7 trillion.” Average realised crude and gas prices stood at $90.4 per barrel and $2.08 per mmscf respectively.

That price environment was not domestic policy. Brent opened 2026 at around $61 a barrel and climbed to $72 by February as Middle East conflict risk rose, before spiking sharply after shipping traffic stopped transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Brent averaged $85 a barrel in June, some $22 below the May average, and fell below $70 on July 1 after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 18 to end the conflict and reopen the strait. Nigeria’s 2026 budget was benchmarked at $64.85 per barrel, with output of roughly 1.5 to 1.6 million barrels daily against a 2 million bpd capacity target.

Away from oil, the evidence for a currency and demand effect is firmer. Dangote Cement, BUA Cement and HBM Nigeria posted combined profit after tax of N1.17 trillion in the first half, a 40.48 per cent rise from N834.06 billion, on combined revenue of N3.91 trillion, up 23.68 per cent from N3.16 trillion. Dangote Cement grew revenue 21.4 per cent to N2.51 trillion, lifted EBITDA 25.8 per cent to N1.19 trillion at a margin of 47.3 per cent, and increased group volumes 11.8 per cent to 14.9 million tonnes. Cement and clinker exports from Nigeria rose 62.3 per cent to 1.1 million tonnes across 20 clinker shipments to Ghana, Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire. BUA Cement recorded the sharpest growth of the three, with profit after tax rising nearly 80 per cent, while HBM Nigeria’s earnings were driven by stronger volumes and pricing.

Banking earnings reflected the recapitalisation the Presidency cited. First HoldCo reported profit before tax of N653.5 billion for the half year, up 84.5 per cent from N356.1 billion, with profit after tax rising 81.6 per cent to N526.1 billion. The exercise itself was substantial. Nigerian banks raised N4.61 trillion in fresh capital under the programme, about 27 per cent of it from foreign investors, with 32 lenders confirmed compliant ahead of the March 31, 2026 deadline. The programme was announced in November 2023 and formalised through CBN directives published on March 28, 2024.

Gross external reserves stood at $52.52 billion as of July 17, 2026, up from $50.47 billion at end-May and $45.56 billion at the start of the year, a gain of 15.3 per cent, sufficient for about 11 months of import cover. Governor Olayemi Cardoso attributed the improvement largely to crude oil related tax receipts and third-party inflows, and told journalists the apex bank would “continue to maintain a transparent, liquid and market-driven foreign exchange market.” The Monetary Policy Committee retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent at its 306th meeting on July 20 and 21, holding Cash Reserve Ratio at 45 per cent for deposit money banks and 16 per cent for merchant banks.

Headline inflation eased to 15.91 per cent in June from 15.93 per cent in May, though food inflation quickened for a fifth month to 17.52 per cent. The naira traded at about N1,380 per dollar at the official window in late July, with the parallel market around N1,425. The economy grew 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 even as crude output slipped to 1.55 million barrels per day from 1.62 million a year earlier, with the oil sector contributing just 3.92 per cent of GDP.

The gap between corporate performance and household experience remains the sharpest counterweight to the Presidency’s framing. The World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria covering 2026 to 2032 found that significant structural challenges remain despite reforms that stabilised the economy, with 61 per cent of Nigerians living below the poverty line, 33 per cent classified as ultra-poor, and 79 per cent either poor or vulnerable to falling back into poverty.

The naira-for-crude policy the Presidency credited with turning Dangote Refinery into a net exporter has also proved uneven. Nigeria recorded a net petrol export balance in March 2026, shipping 44,000 barrels per day against imports of 41,000 bpd, but petrol imports surged again in June as the refinery scaled back domestic sales in favour of exports to generate foreign currency for crude purchases. When the plant reverted to naira pricing on July 22, it set a new ex-gantry price of N1,215 per litre, 13.02 per cent above the previous N1,075, linking the increase directly to the crude price rally.

For investors, the second half will test which explanation holds. With Brent back near pre-conflict levels and the tax charge on Aradel’s books showing how quickly headline profit can be reshaped below the line, the durability of these results will depend less on what happened in the first six months than on whether reform gains survive a softer oil market.