Nigeria Net Forex Inflow Declines 18.3 Percent To 61.29 Billion Dollars In Eleven Months

Net foreign exchange inflow into the Nigerian economy fell by 18.3 per cent year on year to 61.29 billion dollars in the eleven months ended November 2025.

The Central Bank of Nigeria data showed the drop from 69.61 billion dollars recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. This development stemmed from a 25.2 per cent decline in inflows through the Central Bank of Nigeria and a 3.5 per cent reduction in autonomous sources.

Total forex inflows into the economy declined by 12.3 per cent to 102.51 billion dollars in the eleven-month period, down from 116.99 billion dollars in the same period of 2024. Forex outflows also decreased to 41.26 billion dollars from 47.35 billion dollars.

A detailed breakdown revealed that inflows through the Central Bank of Nigeria fell sharply by 25.2 per cent to 35.55 billion dollars from 47.54 billion dollars. Inflows through autonomous sources edged lower by 3.5 per cent to 66.97 billion dollars from 69.45 billion dollars.

On the outflow side, flows through the Central Bank of Nigeria dropped by 21.7 per cent to 29.72 billion dollars from 37.98 billion dollars. Autonomous outflows, however, rose by 18.8 per cent to 11.54 billion dollars from 9.36 billion dollars.

As a result, net forex flow through the Central Bank of Nigeria declined significantly by 39 per cent to 5.83 billion dollars from 9.56 billion dollars. Net flows through autonomous sources fell by 7.7 per cent to 55.42 billion dollars from 60.09 billion dollars.

Nigeria has long depended on foreign exchange to support imports, service external debts and stabilise the naira. For decades the economy faced chronic shortages driven by heavy reliance on oil export receipts routed through the Central Bank of Nigeria and rigid multiple exchange rate windows that discouraged autonomous inflows such as remittances and foreign direct investment. The situation worsened in the early 2020s when low oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic reduced inflows while demand for dollars surged.

The turning point came with the foreign exchange market reforms launched in June 2023 under Governor Olayemi Cardoso. The unification of exchange rates eliminated arbitrage opportunities and boosted confidence. Autonomous inflows rose sharply in the following quarters as diaspora remittances and non-oil export proceeds found easier entry points. Over the six-year period from 2020 to 2025 the country posted cumulative net forex inflows of 237.51 billion dollars according to Central Bank of Nigeria figures compiled by BusinessDay. This positive cumulative performance helped lift net foreign exchange reserves from 3.99 billion dollars at the end of 2023 to 23.11 billion dollars at the end of 2024 and further to 34.8 billion dollars by December 2025 as announced by the governor himself.

The latest eleven-month figures therefore represent a moderation within an otherwise improving longer-term trend. Autonomous sources continued to dominate inflows at 66.97 billion dollars, underscoring their growing importance even as they recorded a mild decline. The Central Bank of Nigeria channel, which handles official oil and debt-related flows, bore the brunt of the slowdown.

The CBN Monthly Economic Report for November 2025 provided further insight into the monthly movement. It stated that foreign exchange flows through the economy resulted in a net inflow of 5.28 billion dollars compared with 7.91 billion dollars in October. Aggregate foreign exchange inflow decreased to 8.80 billion dollars from 10 billion dollars in October while aggregate foreign exchange outflow increased to 3.52 billion dollars from 2.09 billion dollars in the preceding month. The report noted the 33 per cent month-on-month decline in net inflow followed the combined effect of lower overall inflows and higher outflows in the review period.

Interpreted against the broader backdrop, the data highlight the delicate balance between official and market-driven channels. While the Central Bank of Nigeria outflows fell, the rise in autonomous outflows suggests increased repatriation by investors and importers taking advantage of improved liquidity. The net position nonetheless remained positive at 61.29 billion dollars, indicating that inflows still outpaced outflows despite the year-on-year contraction.

The second leg of the year will test whether seasonal factors, including year-end remittances and potential oil windfalls, can reverse the recent softening. Policymakers continue to monitor the flows closely as they shape monetary decisions and exchange rate stability in Africa’s largest economy.