Daniel Otera
As Nigeria prepares for the by-elections scheduled for Saturday, August 16, 2025, across 16 constituencies in 12 states, the country’s democratic processes face a crucial moment of truth.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has mobilized substantial resources to ensure a credible election, deploying 30,451 officials to serve 3,553,659 registered voters across 32 local government areas, 356 wards, and 6,987 polling units. The by-elections will fill vacancies in two senatorial districts, five federal constituencies, and nine state constituencies, all resulting from the death or resignation of elected officials since the inauguration of the National and State Assemblies in June 2023.
INEC has identified the affected constituencies, including Anambra South and Edo Central senatorial districts; federal constituencies such as Ovia South-West/Ovia South-East (Edo), Babura/Garki (Jigawa), Chikun/Kajuru (Kaduna), Ikenne/Shagamu/Remo North (Ogun), and Ibadan North (Oyo); and state constituencies like Ganye (Adamawa), Onitsha North I (Anambra), Dekina/Okura (Kogi), Zaria Kewaye and Basawa (Kaduna), Bagwai/Shanono (Kano), Mariga (Niger), Karim Lamido I (Taraba), and Kauran Namoda South (Zamfara).
However, elections will not be held in two state constituencies: Khana II in Rivers State, due to a state of emergency, and Talata Mafara South in Zamfara State, due to a legal challenge.
INEC Chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, explained: “The non-conduct of by-elections in Rivers is due to the current state of emergency, while in Zamfara, it is due to a pending legal issue.”
The commission will also conduct court-ordered re-run elections in Enugu South I (Enugu) and Ghari/Tsanyawa (Kano) state constituencies, which were previously disrupted by violence. These elections will be held alongside the by-elections, with security assurances from the relevant agencies.
INEC has outlined a stringent timeline for the by-elections, in line with the Electoral Act 2022. Party primaries were conducted between 17 and 21 July 2025, while nomination forms were submitted via INEC’s online portal from 22 to 26 July. Public campaigns took place from 2 August to midnight on 14 August, in compliance with the legal requirement to halt 24 hours before election day.
To ensure accurate voter verification, INEC will deploy the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS). Yakubu emphasized, “No PVC, no voting.” Only registered voters with valid Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) will be allowed to vote, starting at 8:30 a.m. on election day. All electoral materials have been distributed, confirming the commission’s preparedness for the polls.
As of the 2023 general elections, Nigeria has 93.4 million registered voters, with the 3,553,659 voters in the by-elections constituting a significant portion. The 6,987 polling units have been strategically spread to ensure accessibility, although logistical challenges remain, particularly in rural areas.
Voter turnout remains a concern, with a noticeable decline in recent elections. In the 2023 general elections, voter participation dropped to an all-time low of just 26.72%, down from 34.75% in 2019. This trend of voter apathy poses a major challenge to the credibility of the electoral system.
The by-elections take place amid intense political competition, with Nigeria’s major parties the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Labour Party (LP) all vying for influence. The exclusion of LP candidates in certain constituencies, especially in Edo, due to internal party disputes, has sparked controversy.
Peter Obi, LP’s 2023 presidential candidate, urged supporters to back the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Edo, claiming that “INEC refused to recognize the Labour Party candidates for the by-elections, having emerged through the primaries conducted by the Abure-led faction.”
The by-elections in Edo Central Senatorial District and Ovia Federal Constituency are particularly sensitive, given their proximity to the September 2024 governorship election, which was marred by allegations of result manipulation. The Coalition of Observer Groups in Nigeria has raised concerns, warning that similar tactics might be employed again: “We have received worrying indications that similar tactics may be deployed, with fears that results could be predetermined through the unlawful preparation of duplicate result sheets.”
The group has called on INEC to ensure transparency, noting: “The August 16 by-elections are a test of INEC’s commitment to electoral integrity.”
In Edo Central, the home constituency of Governor Godwin Obaseki, scrutiny is particularly high. Observers have urged the governor to promote peace and fairness during the elections. Simon Diogu, spokesperson for the Coalition of Observer Groups, said, “We urge the governor to demonstrate leadership by promoting peace and fairness during the elections.”
The by-elections face significant challenges, including voter apathy, security concerns, and allegations of incumbency abuse. INEC has acknowledged opposition party complaints regarding restricted access to public facilities for campaigns.
Yakubu stated, “These actions violate the Electoral Act 2022, which prohibits the use of incumbency to the advantage or disadvantage of any political party or candidate.” He added that INEC will work with the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC) and the Advertising Regulatory Council of Nigeria (ARCON) to take legal action against offenders.
Security remains a key concern, particularly in states like Edo and Kano, where past elections have been disrupted. The Coalition of Observer Groups warned against “militarization of the electoral environment,” which could intimidate voters and restrict access to collation centers. Data from Dataphyte shows that electoral violence affected 15% of polling units in previous by-elections since 2019, underscoring the need for strong security measures.
Voter turnout continues to be a major issue. Dr. Yusuf Dantalle, IPAC Chairman, lamented: “Poor turnout during elections indicates a lack of trust in credible democracy.” He urged all stakeholders to “uphold the sanctity of the ballot box” to restore public confidence.
Historical data from INEC’s election result analysis portal indicates that by-elections typically see lower participation due to their limited scope compared to general elections.
Simultaneously, INEC has resumed Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) to update the voter register. In Anambra, CVR ran from 8 to 17 July 2025 across 326 wards, while nationwide registration will begin online on 18 August and in-person on 25 August. This exercise will register new voters, facilitate transfers, and replace lost or damaged PVCs.
Yakubu emphasized, “Voter registration and the compilation of the voters’ register must be completed not later than 90 days before the date fixed for the election, as required by law.”
The by-elections and CVR are pivotal for Nigeria’s democratic trajectory, especially as the country approaches the 2027 general elections. Dantalle underscored the role of technology in shaping the future of elections: “The upcoming Anambra governorship election is an opportunity for INEC to demonstrate technological advancement in election administration, particularly with the use of Artificial Intelligence.”
By-elections provide a controlled environment to test electoral innovations, such as BVAS and real-time result transmission.
The 2024 Edelman Trust Barometer reveals that only 23% of Nigerians trust INEC, a significant drop from 35% in 2017. This decline in trust is largely due to concerns over technological failures, operational inefficiencies, and allegations of voter suppression. These issues contribute to growing skepticism about INEC’s ability to conduct free, fair, and transparent elections.
Further, a report by Afrobarometer shows that many Nigerians view the electoral system as deeply flawed, with a significant portion of the population believing that elections are neither competitive nor reflective of the people’s will. These findings underscore the challenges INEC faces in restoring confidence in the electoral process.
With 3.5 million voters at stake, these by-elections carry considerable weight in shaping perceptions of electoral fairness.
The August 16, 2025 by-elections are more than just a routine process to fill vacant seats; they represent a critical opportunity to strengthen Nigeria’s democratic institutions.