Nigeria’s Inflation Drops to 15.10 Percent In January, – NBS

 

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined marginally to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, down from 15.15 per cent recorded in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.

The development defied earlier projections by analysts who had anticipated that Nigeria’s inflation could climb to 19 per cent in January, marking a significant divergence between expert forecasts and actual economic performance.

The NBS report showed that the Consumer Price Index fell to 127.4 in January from 131.2 in December, representing a 3.8-point decrease within the one-month period.

According to the bureau, the January headline inflation rate was 0.05 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in December, indicating a modest but notable slowdown in the pace of price increases across the economy.

On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate of 15.10 per cent in January 2026 was 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025, reflecting a substantial deceleration in inflationary pressure compared to the same period in the previous year.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation stood at negative 2.88 per cent in January, compared to 0.54 per cent in December, indicating that the average price level declined during the month rather than increased.

“The Consumer Price Index declined to 127.4 in January 2026, reflecting a 3.8-point decrease from the preceding month (131.2),” the NBS report read.

“In January 2026, the Headline inflation rate eased to 15.10 per cent, down from 15.15 per cent in December 2025. Looking at the movement, the January 2026 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.05 per cent compared to the December 2025 Headline inflation rate.”

The bureau noted that the percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending January 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 21.97 per cent, which represents a 4.37 percentage point increase compared to the 17.59 per cent recorded in January 2025.

The twelve-month average figure provides a broader view of inflationary trends by smoothing out monthly fluctuations and capturing the sustained trajectory of price movements over an extended period.

A breakdown of the figures showed that urban inflation stood at 15.36 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, sharply lower than the 29.45 per cent recorded in January 2025, demonstrating significant price stability in Nigeria’s urban centres compared to the previous year.

On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation declined by 2.72 per cent, compared to 0.99 per cent in December, suggesting that prices in cities and towns actually fell during January rather than rising.

The corresponding twelve-month average for urban inflation was 22.30 per cent.

Rural inflation was 14.44 per cent on a year-on-year basis in January 2026, down from 25.04 per cent recorded in January 2025, indicating that rural areas experienced even greater price moderation than urban centres over the year.

On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation fell by 3.29 per cent compared to a negative 0.55 per cent in December, meaning rural prices declined more sharply in January than they had in the previous month.

The twelve-month average for rural inflation stood at 21.03 per cent.

Food inflation recorded a significant slowdown across the board. On a year-on-year basis, it stood at 8.89 per cent in January 2026, which was 20.73 percentage points lower than the 29.63 per cent recorded in January 2025.

The substantial decline in food inflation represents a major relief for Nigerian households, given that food items constitute a significant portion of household expenditure, particularly among low and middle-income earners.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation declined by 6.02 per cent in January compared to a negative 0.36 per cent in December, indicating that food prices fell more dramatically in January than in the preceding month.

The NBS attributed the decline to reductions in the prices of items such as water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, and cassava.

These commodities form staple components of Nigerian diets and are critical indicators of food security and household purchasing power across the country.

The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending January 2026 was 20.29 per cent, down from 38.47 per cent recorded in January 2025, reflecting sustained moderation in food price pressures over the year.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of underlying inflationary trends, stood at 17.72 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, compared to 25.27 per cent in January 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, core inflation declined by 1.69 per cent compared to 0.58 per cent in December, suggesting that non-food and non-energy prices also experienced downward pressure during the month.

The twelve-month average core inflation rate was 22.84 per cent, lower than the 27.24 per cent recorded in January 2025.

Core inflation is closely monitored by policymakers and central banks as it strips out the most volatile components of the price index and offers insight into persistent inflationary pressures that may require monetary policy intervention.

At the state level, inflationary experiences varied significantly across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Benue recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation rate at 22.48 per cent, followed by Kogi at 20.98 per cent and the Federal Capital Territory at 19.25 per cent.

These figures suggest that residents in these states faced steeper price increases compared to the national average, potentially reflecting local supply constraints, transportation costs, or other regional economic factors.

Ebonyi, Katsina, and Imo recorded the lowest year-on-year headline inflation rates at 8.72 per cent, 8.94 per cent, and 10.61 per cent, respectively, indicating relatively more stable price environments in these states.

On a month-on-month basis, Imo and Ondo recorded the highest increases at 1.93 per cent and 1.932 per cent, respectively, while Cross River, Ogun, and Kogi recorded the sharpest declines at negative 6.34 per cent, negative 6.30 per cent, and negative 6.03 per cent, respectively.

The wide disparity in monthly inflation rates across states underscores the heterogeneous nature of Nigeria’s economic landscape and the influence of local factors on price dynamics.

For food inflation specifically, Kogi recorded the highest year-on-year rate at 19.84 per cent, followed by Benue at 18.38 per cent and Adamawa at 17.29 per cent, while Ebonyi, Abia, and Imo recorded the slowest rise in food prices.

Nigeria has grappled with elevated inflation for several years, driven by a combination of factors including exchange rate volatility, supply chain disruptions, insecurity affecting agricultural production, and fiscal pressures. The Central Bank of Nigeria has implemented various monetary policy measures aimed at taming inflation, including interest rate adjustments and interventions in the foreign exchange market.

The January 2026 figures represent a continuation of a gradual cooling trend observed in recent months, although inflation remains above the central bank’s target range. Economists and policymakers will be closely monitoring subsequent data releases to determine whether the current trajectory is sustainable or if external shocks or policy changes could reverse the trend.