Daniel Otera
A growing number of Nigerians are losing faith in government, public institutions, and national unity, according to findings from the 2025 Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey, conducted by the Africa Polling Institute (API). The report, released at the weekend in Abuja, paints a stark portrait of public sentiment, showing a sharp decline in trust across all arms of government.
Data from the nationwide survey revealed that 83 per cent of respondents expressed little or no trust in the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while 82 per cent reported similar distrust in the National Assembly, currently led by Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas.
The judiciary, long considered the last hope of the common man, is also facing a crisis of credibility. According to the survey, 79 per cent of citizens expressed low confidence in the judicial system, both under the former Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Justice Olukayode Ariwoola, and his successor, Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun.
Compared with earlier surveys conducted in 2019, 2021, and 2022, the 2025 edition reflects the most dramatic collapse in institutional trust since API began tracking social cohesion. While previous editions had shown fluctuating trends tied to elections and policy shifts, this year’s findings point to a more entrenched and widespread sense of disillusionment.
“Citizens’ trust and public confidence were at their lowest ebb,” the API noted. The organisation’s Executive Director, Dr Bell Ihua, added that the report represents “the sharpest drop in institutional trust we have recorded to date,” linking the trend to worsening economic conditions and public dissatisfaction with governance.
The Social Cohesion Index now stands at 46.8 per cent, a notable decline from 54.2 per cent in 2021. The index measures Nigerians’ sense of belonging, interpersonal trust, civic participation, and shared identity. According to API, this year’s results reflect a nation increasingly united by economic hardship rather than national identity.
“Every conversation these days begins and ends with how to survive transport fare, food price, or electricity billing. It’s like we are all in the same storm, even if we’re in different boats,” said a respondent from Kano State, as cited in the report.
Rising inflation, stagnant wages, and failing public services were among the most frequently mentioned grievances by survey participants. Over 53 per cent of respondents admitted they ‘feel disappointed in Nigeria’, a sentiment that cuts across class, region, and religion.
The survey highlights how economic despair has eroded citizens’ belief in the state’s ability to deliver public goods or uphold democratic values. API observed that respondents frequently cited the high cost of transport, unaffordable food prices, and a lack of economic opportunity under the current economic framework.
The Citizens’ Perception Survey (CPS) was carried out between January and February 2025, supported by the Ford Foundation. A total of 5,465 face-to-face household interviews were conducted using the Stratified Random Sampling technique to ensure national representation.
Respondents aged 15 years and above were interviewed in five major Nigerian languages English, Pidgin, Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba. Geographic quotas were applied across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to ensure demographic and regional balance.
According to API, the methodology was deliberately designed to reflect the diversity of the Nigerian populace and produce statistically robust insights to inform policy.
Analysts cited in the report warned that the deepening erosion of public trust could have far-reaching consequences for Nigeria’s democratic trajectory. As the trust deficit widens, citizens are increasingly disengaging from the political process, with rising vulnerability to misinformation, voter apathy, and identity-based agitation.
“Where citizens no longer believe in the fairness of institutions, democratic consolidation becomes increasingly difficult,” the report noted. API cautioned that low trust in political and judicial leadership undermines state legitimacy, weakens democratic participation, and creates fertile ground for extremist ideologies.
The report also identified insecurity, impunity, poor service delivery, and a perceived lack of transparency as central to the weakening social contract between citizens and the state.
“Where trust is low, citizens disengage from the state and become susceptible to alternative forms of authority, whether ethnic, religious, or even violent,” API warned.
The survey calls on all levels of government to urgently implement measures to rebuild public confidence, including transparent governance, inclusive policy-making, and effective service delivery, especially in the sectors of security, justice, education, and economic reform.
The 2025 Social Cohesion Survey provides a sobering but critical mirror of the national mood. It reveals a fragile unity, a disenchanted populace, and a country where democratic trust is increasingly at risk.