Raphael Kanu
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) has agreed to increase oil production from October, with Saudi Arabia leading efforts to regain market share despite expectations of weaker global demand in the months ahead.
At an online meeting on Sunday, eight members of the group endorsed a production rise of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning in October. The increment is considerably smaller than the 555,000 bpd increases in August and September and 411,000 bpd in July and June, reflecting caution over a potential oversupply during the winter.
The decision also signals the start of an early unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd cut introduced by eight members in 2023, more than a year ahead of schedule. Since April, OPEC+ has already reversed a first tranche of 2.5 million bpd in cuts, equivalent to about 2.4% of global demand.
“The barrels may be small, but the message is big,” said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official. “The increase is less about volumes and more about signalling – OPEC+ is prioritizing market share even if it risks softer prices.”
The group’s output strategy comes at a time when oil prices have fallen 15% this year, squeezing company profits to their lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic and triggering widespread job losses. Prices currently hover around $65 per barrel, cushioned by sanctions on Russia and Iran.
Analysts warn that the real test will come in the fourth quarter, when demand typically slows. While OPEC+ members collectively pledged increases, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have spare capacity to add significant volumes, with others already pumping near their limits.
OPEC+ reaffirmed its flexibility, saying it could accelerate, pause, or reverse hikes depending on market conditions. The next ministerial meeting is scheduled for October 5.
Saudi Arabia’s assertive stance reflects both market and political considerations. Riyadh has moved to punish overproduction by members such as Kazakhstan while backing the UAE’s push for higher output targets following capacity expansions.
The group has also faced external pressure. Earlier this year, U.S. President Donald Trump urged OPEC+ to raise supply to help bring down American fuel prices, tying the issue to his election commitments.
OPEC+ still maintains another 2 million bpd cut shared across the entire coalition, in place until the end of 2026, even as it gradually rolls back other reductions.