Mathew Amaechi
In a development that could spell significant relief for Nigerian consumers, the ongoing petrol price competition between Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) is expected to drive fuel prices down until June 2025. Esteemed economist Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, shared this optimistic projection during an interview on Tuesday.
Rewane highlighted that both Dangote Refinery and NNPCL have recently reduced their petrol prices, initiating a competitive landscape that favors consumers. He anticipates that this trend will persist over the next few months, leading to a continued decline in fuel costs.
“So, generally, between now and June, we will see prices begin to decline,” Rewane stated. “But after June, as things stabilize, depending on what happens in the global oil and currency market, we might begin to see some stabilization.”
The price war between these industry giants has been unfolding over recent months. In December 2024, Dangote Refinery reduced its ex-depot price to ₦899.50 per liter, prompting NNPCL to match this reduction by slashing its own price from ₦1,020 to ₦899 per liter.
This competitive pricing has led to increased consumer interest in Dangote’s petrol offerings, with many Nigerians reportedly favoring Dangote’s fuel over NNPCL’s due to perceived quality and cost-effectiveness.
The rivalry intensified further in February 2025, with Dangote Refinery lowering its loading costs to ₦890 from ₦950 per liter, challenging NNPCL’s market position. This move has pressured NNPCL to reconsider its pricing strategy to maintain its customer base.
Rewane emphasized that such competition ultimately benefits consumers, at least in the short term. “In a price war, nobody wins; the consumers win in the short run. Then, eventually, the market goes back to where it should be,” he explained. He also noted that the trajectory of global oil prices and currency market fluctuations would play pivotal roles in determining long-term fuel prices in Nigeria.
As the nation approaches mid-year, consumers can look forward to more affordable petrol prices, a welcome respite amid economic challenges. However, stakeholders remain vigilant, understanding that market dynamics can shift rapidly, influenced by both domestic policies and international economic trends.
The ongoing developments underscore the critical importance of competition in the downstream oil sector, highlighting how strategic pricing decisions by major players like Dangote Refinery and NNPCL can directly impact the daily lives of millions of Nigerians
