Michael Ogueke
The truth is, if Tinubu had been president instead of Buhari from 2015 to May 2023, he would have killed the Dangote refinery. That refinery wouldn’t have seen the light of day.
Buhari was committed to ending fuel subsidies but never wanted to implement it in a way that would destroy the economy, businesses, and the lives of Nigerians. To achieve this, Buhari’s government took substantial shares in the Dangote refinery, cleared all administrative and legal bottlenecks to enable construction to begin in 2016, and steadily pumped billions through the Central Bank of Nigeria into the project as part of the Federal Government’s shares until its completion and commissioning in the first quarter of 2023.
While Buhari’s administration was investing heavily in the Dangote refinery, it was also partnering with private businesses for modular refineries and investing heavily in rehabilitating the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries. Work on all these was at advanced stages, with some modular refineries already completed and producing, and the Port Harcourt refinery rehabilitation 98% complete before Buhari left office.
Buhari’s aim with all these investments in local refineries was fourfold:
- To end fuel importation and save billions of dollars annually that could be channeled into Nigeria’s developmental infrastructure, public utilities, healthcare, education, security, agriculture, social interventions, and overall improvement of Nigerians’ living conditions.
- To not only meet domestic fuel consumption needs but also produce excess for export, generating billions of dollars in export earnings yearly to aid development, reduce borrowing, stabilize the naira and exchange rates, and grow foreign reserves monthly.
- To alleviate unemployment by employing hundreds of thousands of Nigerians, while fostering human capital development through training in world-class management, technology, engineering, environment, and computer skills, as well as bringing in technological transfers from global industrial partners involved in construction and rehabilitation.
- To end fuel subsidies and the fraud inherent in the system by enabling these refineries to sell fuel directly to marketers.
These refineries would have ended subsidies without negatively impacting Nigerians’ lives because Buhari’s plan was to flood the market with cheap, locally produced fuel free from importation costs, with crude oil sold by the Federal Government to the refineries in Naira.
These and many other substantial investments in agriculture—already yielding results—developmental infrastructure across Nigeria, enhanced security, and social intervention programs are verifiable solid foundations that Buhari left for Tinubu to build on and succeed without much disruption to the economy or the lives of Nigerians.
If Tinubu had followed these arrangements, as many of us who supported his presidency believed he would, Nigerians wouldn’t be paying more than 300 naira per litre of petrol today. The naira would not have depreciated beyond 600 naira to the dollar naturally, without intervention from the Central Bank of Nigeria. Our economy and living conditions would not be in the current difficult state.
Unfortunately, incompetence, ego, tribal hegemonic pursuits, insatiable greed for money and power, and micromanagement of the country—often through his son to exert total control—have led Tinubu to employ incompetent tribal loyalists and opposition members he holds ransom with the EFCC to do his bidding. These factors have caused him to abandon the solid foundations Buhari laid, chasing distractions for over two years now, while deceiving himself with propaganda and purchased or coerced endorsements, thinking he is fooling Nigerians.
If Buhari had not ensured that the Dangote refinery, which has the largest capacity among the refineries he was working on simultaneously, was completed before he left office, Nigerians would now be paying over 2,000 naira per litre of petrol.
Tinubu’s only apparent plan regarding the controversial fuel subsidy removal seems to be allowing his family and cronies, through NNPC and Oando, to become the sole importers of fuel into the country, selling at prices they set while secretly profiting from subsidies through opaque channels, without transparency or accountability—much like his other projects, expenditures, and borrowings since taking office two years ago.
The three state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna should by now be producing enough fuel for the entire country and helping to reduce prices, given the massive investments Buhari made and the upfront payments he ensured to keep work uninterrupted, even after leaving office. Curiously, these refineries are not producing any fuel. Production appears to have been deliberately halted to benefit certain individuals through continued fuel imports, to the detriment of Nigerians.
When Tinubu and his associates could not control Dangote’s fuel supply to manipulate prices as they wished, they resorted to efforts aimed at undermining Dangote refinery. To deny the refinery liquidity essential for maintaining operations, Tinubu canceled the payment of the remaining federal government balance owed for the 20% stake in the refinery that Buhari had negotiated and partially paid before leaving office.
When that did not succeed, the government canceled the sale of crude oil to the Dangote refinery in naira and drastically cut the crude supply quota, forcing the refinery to source funds and crude oil abroad.
When those measures failed, a large-scale propaganda campaign was launched falsely accusing Dangote of being unconcerned about Nigerians’ suffering, claiming his refinery sought monopoly status, and alleging that Dangote fuel was substandard and fake.
If Dangote were not a strong, resolute, courageous, and patriotic Nigerian who deeply believes in the country, these tactics could have destroyed the refinery and forced Nigerians to pay over 2,000 naira per litre for imported fuel.
This pattern of behavior extends across every sector of the economy under Tinubu’s administration.
Agricultural subsidies and soft credit facilities—which are standard support mechanisms for farmers worldwide—were deliberately withdrawn. Meanwhile, waivers were granted to his family members and associates to import duty-free, cheap, substandard Asian rice, flooding the Nigerian market. As a result, Nigeria has fallen from being the largest rice producer in Africa just two years ago to now the largest rice importer on the continent. Millions of farmers have been forced to close their farms due to these policies, swelling the ranks of unemployed Nigerians. Yet, some overly enthusiastic Tinubu supporters are shamelessly celebrating on social media as if rice selling for 50k a bag is a victory.
The same goes for electricity. Buhari’s Siemens deal, which was gradually moving Nigeria toward steady electricity supply, was abandoned by Tinubu. Today, we face a 300% increase in electricity costs but still get nothing but darkness in return.
Tinubu also removed education subsidies that enabled children from poor families to attend school and replaced them with a controversial education loan scheme. This scheme has enriched some cronies through fraud, and it remains unclear how beneficiaries will repay their loans given the high unemployment rates post-graduation.
Every foundation for growth, development, progress, unity, and improved living conditions that Buhari laid has been abandoned by Tinubu. Instead, he has pursued ego-driven, tribal hegemonic policies and unchecked greed for money and power, micromanaging the country with his son to maintain total control and perpetuate his hold on power.
And that is still not enough for him. Tinubu is determined to destroy Buhari’s legacy and claim all his achievements as his own.
Tinubu and those who support his betrayal and exploitation of Nigeria, under the guise of politics, risk leading the country toward instability and hardship. True progress and national unity require accountability, transparency, and commitment to the foundations laid for the benefit of all Nigerians.
Michael Ogueke can be reached at michaelogueke@gmail.com
