Esther Imonmion
Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam Freedom Party (PVV) faces a tight contest in Wednesday’s Dutch general election, with final opinion polls showing a decline in support. Even if Wilders tops the polls, analysts say his chances of forming a government remain slim.
Wilders, who led his party to victory in the November 2023 election, has seen his popularity dip as Dutch voters grapple with multiple crises — including a housing shortage, rising costs of living, and overcrowded asylum centres.
This time, his rivals have ruled out working with him after he brought down his own coalition government in June 2024 over immigration policy disputes. Voting across more than 10,000 polling stations continues until 21:00 (20:00 GMT) on Wednesday.
Commentators suggest the outcome could depend more on who finishes second than who wins outright, as coalition-building will determine the next government. Despite PVV’s earlier dominance, a coalition from the centre left or centre right now appears more likely.
More than a third of Dutch voters were still undecided on the eve of the election, underlining the uncertainty surrounding the vote. “It’s one of the most important elections because people need to have their faith restored,” said Sarah de Lange, professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University.
Fifteen parties are expected to win seats in the 150-member parliament, with four leading the race — Wilders’ PVV, GreenLeft-Labour led by former EU official Frans Timmermans, Rob Jetten’s liberal D66, and Henri Bontenbal’s centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA).
Housing has dominated debates, with a shortage of nearly 400,000 homes in a nation of 18 million. Wilders blames migration, while others cite planning delays and a rise in single-person households. Timmermans has pledged to build 100,000 homes annually, and Jetten proposes using 1% of farmland for housing.
Unemployment rose to 4% last month — still low by European standards but the highest in four years — with job insecurity a growing concern among workers.
Wilders, long considered an outsider, played a pivotal role in forming and later collapsing the last coalition. His former partner, Dilan Yesilgöz of the conservative-liberal VVD, has refused to work with him again, calling PVV “a one-man party with a Twitter account.”
Wilders faced further backlash this month after two PVV MPs shared AI-generated images depicting Timmermans in handcuffs, forcing him to apologise.
Analysts say Wilders risks losing both radical voters who may abstain and moderate supporters who could shift to other right-wing parties like Ja21. “Right now, I don’t think it’s very likely Wilders will be part of a government coalition,” said Matthijs Rooduijn of the University of Amsterdam.
If the centre right forms the next government, CDA leader Henri Bontenbal could emerge as a compromise figure. His party, which won only five seats two years ago, has made a strong comeback.
Bontenbal has campaigned on restoring stability, saying Dutch voters are ready for “boring politics” and “done with populism.” However, his campaign suffered after he initially defended religious schools’ right to teach against same-sex relationships — a statement he later retracted.
Coalition talks are expected to take weeks, and possibly months, before a new government is formed.