Daniel Otera
In recent days, media outlets have been awash with reports suggesting an attempted military coup against President Bola Tinubu, though these claims have been strongly denied by the Defence Headquarters (DHQ). While the official narrative dismisses the notion of a coup, the reported arrests of some army officers, including a top brass, has sparked concern, and many are left wondering about the true state of Nigeria’s political and military stability.
On October 18, 2025, Sahara Reporters and other outlets reported that at least 16 army officers, including a brigadier-general and several personnel connected to the Office of the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, were arrested by the Defence Intelligence Agency in connection with a coup attempt. According to sources, the plot was scheduled for October 1, 2025, coinciding with Nigeria’s 65th Independence Day celebrations in Abuja. The cancellation of the event on short notice, along with the arrest of high-ranking military officers, quickly raised suspicions of a coordinated military conspiracy.
However, the Defence Headquarters swiftly issued a statement on October 18, denying the coup allegations and clarifying that the military is investigating incidents of misconduct and indiscipline within its ranks. The Department of State Services (DSS) also downplayed the situation, describing it as a routine surveillance matter, claiming that no credible threat was found and that the security apparatus had acted in a preventive manner.
While no evidence has yet substantiated the coup allegations, the incident has inevitably stirred fears of instability, reminding many of Nigeria’s turbulent political history. The parallels with the 1993 era, when military tensions were high, are difficult to ignore. At that time, the military budget allocation accounted for 28% of Nigeria’s national expenditure, signifying the central role the armed forces played in governance.
In 2025, the Nigerian defense budget has grown significantly, with projections reaching ₦4.91 trillion, up from ₦3.25 trillion in 2024 a 27.5% increase. This sharp rise underscores the government’s commitment to securing the country amid growing internal and external threats. But despite the financial commitment, concerns about inefficiency and corruption within Nigeria’s security agencies persist.
The Auditor-General’s 2024 report revealed over ₦197 billion in irregular payments across various government sectors, drawing attention to systemic procurement issues. This echoes the discontent within the military during previous regimes, where budget inefficiencies contributed to tensions among security personnel.
In recent years, the Department of State Services (DSS) has played an increasingly vital role in national security, particularly in tackling internal threats. A joint DSS operation in 2025 dismantled key strongholds of the Eastern Security Network (ESN) in Imo State, seizing arms and eliminating top operatives. The DSS’s efforts to intercept security breaches have grown more frequent, with reports showing a 45% rise in successful operations against internal threats, many of which involve disgruntled military personnel.
Yet, challenges remain in coordinating across agencies. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has pointed out the fragmented data systems between the military, DSS, and the police, which hinder effective collaboration and leave vulnerabilities in the national security framework.
The growing instability, real or perceived, has been reflected in public sentiment. A recent Afrobarometer survey, conducted between late 2024 and mid-2025, found that only 22% of Nigerians express trust in the military, a sharp drop from 31% in 2022. This erosion of confidence is largely attributed to perceptions of political interference, casting doubt on the military’s neutrality.
The survey also showed a troubling trend in public views on government stability. In 2022, 74% of Nigerians believed elections failed to curb elite capture; by 2025, this figure had risen to 81%, highlighting the deepening frustration with the political system. These sentiments are reflected in the National Stability Index, which scored Nigeria a dismal 48 out of 100, signaling a decline in public trust and a heightened fear of social unrest. In fact, 62% of Nigerians in 2025 expressed support for protests against worsening economic conditions, up from 55% in 2022.
The economic repercussions of these tensions are also becoming evident. Investor confidence has taken a significant hit, with the Bloomberg Africa Investor Confidence Index for Q3 2025 showing a 12% decline in Nigeria’s score. This drop, coupled with a 19% decrease in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Q1 2025, is largely attributed to political instability. Many firms have pointed to this as a key factor in their decision to withdraw investments.
Additionally, the Nigerian Stock Exchange’s All-Share Index suffered a 3.2% drop between October 14 and 18, 2025, wiping out ₦450 billion in market value. Although sectors like oil show some optimism regarding reforms, the broader economic outlook remains fragile. The PwC Nigeria economic outlook for September 2025 predicts that unresolved security concerns could further dampen GDP growth, projecting a 1.5% reduction and an increase in unemployment from 5.3% to 6.8% by the end of the year.
As investigations continue and tensions simmer, the situation remains precarious. The federal government, through Information Minister Mohammed Idris, reassured the public on October 19 that “Nigeria’s democracy is resilient, and our security forces stand firm in defense of it.”