Oil Price Surge Pressures Nigerian Aviation Sector
Nigeria’s domestic aviation sector remains under pressure as airlines continue operations despite renewed threats of a shutdown over rising jet fuel costs, highlighting deep tensions between global oil shocks and local pricing realities.
Carriers under the Airline Operators of Nigeria had warned of a possible suspension of services, yet flight data shows key operators including Air Peace, Max Air and Rano Air continued flying. The group did not issue an immediate update explaining the reversal, marking the second time in recent weeks that a strike threat has been shelved.
The cost pressures stem from a sharp escalation in global crude prices, which climbed above $126 per barrel, their highest level since 2022, following military tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran. The disruption has tightened global fuel supply chains, with some European airlines already cutting back flights.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has not been insulated from the surge. Although the Dangote Refinery began operations in 2024 and has ramped up jet fuel production, domestic prices remain elevated. Data from energy analytics firm Kpler shows maritime jet fuel shipments from the refinery reached a record 154,000 barrels per day in April 2026, with roughly half exported outside Africa.
Preliminary figures indicate a slight increase in volumes retained for Nigeria, even as exports to other African markets dipped. However, analysts note that the refinery’s exposure to international crude pricing limits its ability to shield local buyers from global volatility.
Industry voices remain divided on pricing. Jide Pratt of Tradegrid suggested there is room for local cost moderation through blending strategies, noting that reduced reliance on international benchmarks could ease pricing pressures. In contrast, Clement Isong of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria argued that crude oil pricing remains globally determined, regardless of whether it is sourced locally or imported.
Fuel costs have become the central concern for operators. Airlines claim jet fuel prices have surged to about ₦3,300 per litre, more than triple previous levels. Marketers and independent analysts dispute this figure, placing current prices closer to ₦2,000 per litre, underscoring the lack of consensus in the market.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has also rejected reports that it plans to impose price caps, signalling a continued reliance on market-driven pricing mechanisms.
Aviation has taken on increased importance in Nigeria amid persistent security concerns on major highways, including kidnappings and armed attacks, pushing many travellers towards air transport despite higher fares.
With government discussions on debt relief for airlines ongoing, the sector’s immediate stability appears fragile, tied closely to developments in global oil markets and unresolved questions around domestic fuel pricing.