United States President Donald Trump has played down the prospect of a return to full scale fighting with Iran, describing renewed conflict as highly unlikely even as he kept the threat of fresh strikes alive and tied any lasting calm to Tehran signing what he called a strong agreement. Speaking in a television interview on Sunday, Trump said his decision would depend on whether Iran committed to a deal, while boasting that earlier American attacks had struck the country hard.
His comments carried unusual political weight. They came only days after his Republican Party lost control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections, a defeat widely linked to the war and to the high fuel and grocery prices that followed it. Trump, whose approval ratings have slipped into the 30s, was due to host Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, at the White House on Monday, his first meeting with a foreign leader since the loss.
Iran has struck a cautious note. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said mediation had effectively paused while both sides weighed the fallout of the American vote, telling state television that the results had unsettled everyone involved. He argued that American voters were tired of being drawn into prolonged Middle East wars, a message Tehran has pushed as it seeks leverage in stalled talks.
The war is now in its ninth month, far longer than Trump once predicted. It began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, with Trump initially suggesting the campaign would last only four to six weeks. Instead it hardened into a grinding confrontation centred on the Strait of Hormuz, punctuated by a short lived ceasefire, an American naval blockade of Iranian ports first imposed in April, an interim deal in June that briefly lifted it, and a reimposed blockade in July after Iran attacked commercial ships in the waterway.
That chokepoint explains much of the war’s global reach. Before the fighting, roughly a fifth of the world’s traded crude oil and natural gas moved through the Strait of Hormuz, and the disruption has driven sharp swings in energy prices that have rippled through markets far beyond the Gulf, including oil dependent economies. Iranian state television said the island of Qeshm, inside the strait, was hit overnight on Sunday, hours after reports of two explosions there, a sign that skirmishing has continued despite the diplomatic push.
Economic pain has become central to the standoff. Trump has argued that sanctions and military pressure are forcing Iran toward his terms, claiming the country was suffering inflation of 301 per cent. That figure is far above the official data: Iran’s own statistics put annual inflation at close to 90 per cent in September, still severe but well short of the president’s claim. Earlier in the war, senior Iranian officials said President Masoud Pezeshkian had warned that the blockade was crushing the economy and that he would step down if no ceasefire was approved.
Efforts to end the conflict have been led for months by Qatar and Pakistan, with little to show for it. Previous rounds of talks collapsed over Iran’s nuclear programme and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, control of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief and war reparations. Araghchi has repeatedly accused Washington of shifting its demands, while Trump has insisted he will not accept any deal that leaves Iran able to build a nuclear weapon, something Tehran denies it is pursuing.
For now, the confirmed developments are narrow: a presidential signal that further escalation is unlikely, a high profile meeting with a key mediator, and entrenched positions on both sides. Whether that translates into a durable agreement remains uncertain, and much is likely to depend on how a weakened Trump recalibrates after an election defeat that the conflict helped to produce.