Samuel Omang
Nigeria’s political landscape is bracing for another major shake-up as reports intensify that two sitting governors — Peter Mbah of Enugu State and Douye Diri of Bayelsa State — are finalising arrangements to defect from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The planned move, which insiders say could be officially announced before the end of the month, is already sending ripples across the political spectrum and fuelling debates about the weakening of opposition politics and the deepening dominance of the ruling party under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
According to impeccable sources within both parties, the two governors have been in advanced discussions with key figures in the Presidency and the APC leadership over the past few weeks. The defection, sources say, is part of a broader realignment strategy by the Tinubu administration to consolidate political control ahead of the 2027 general elections. It also reflects what analysts describe as a growing disillusionment within the PDP, which has struggled to recover from its defeat in the 2023 polls and continues to grapple with internal divisions, financial distress, and leadership uncertainty.
Governor Peter Mbah, who has faced legal and political battles over his certificate and electoral legitimacy, is said to have been under mounting pressure from political heavyweights in the South-East to align with the centre in order to secure federal support for key infrastructure and security challenges facing Enugu State. In Bayelsa, Governor Douye Diri’s rumoured defection is reportedly tied to ongoing negotiations between influential political figures from the Niger Delta and the Presidency over resource control, federal appointments, and economic development projects. A senior APC source who spoke on condition of anonymity said, “Both governors have been in talks for weeks. The idea is to bring everyone under one umbrella of progress and national cooperation. The President wants to build bridges across party lines, and this is part of that process.”
However, opposition voices and civil society groups see things differently. Many argue that the wave of defections amounts to the systematic erosion of Nigeria’s multiparty democracy and the entrenchment of a one-party system through inducements, political intimidation, and selective patronage. For the PDP, which once prided itself as Africa’s largest political party, the anticipated exit of two influential governors — both considered stabilising forces within the party — could prove devastating. The PDP currently controls only a handful of states and is reeling from the defection of several lawmakers and political appointees to the APC since Tinubu assumed office in May 2023.
A member of the PDP National Working Committee who requested anonymity described the development as “a coordinated assault on the opposition” and accused the ruling party of using the lure of federal power to weaken political plurality. “This is not about ideology or governance; it’s about survival. The APC is weaponising access to federal resources and security agencies to make governors and lawmakers cross over. What we are seeing is the slow death of competitive democracy,” he said.
In contrast, the APC has defended its strategy as one of national inclusion, dismissing allegations of coercion or manipulation. Speaking in Abuja, APC National Publicity Secretary Felix Morka said the party welcomes any Nigerian leader who shares President Tinubu’s vision for renewed hope and national development. “Governor Mbah and Governor Diri are both patriotic leaders who want to deliver progress to their people. The APC is a home for all Nigerians who believe in development, stability, and accountability. It is not about partisanship; it is about service,” Morka stated.
Political analysts, however, note that while defection has become a recurring feature of Nigeria’s democracy since 1999, the recent spate of high-level crossovers underscores deeper structural problems within the country’s party system. Dr. Kemi Olagunju, a political scientist at the University of Ibadan, explained that Nigeria’s political parties are not bound by strong ideological foundations, making them susceptible to opportunism. “In advanced democracies, party loyalty is tied to clear ideological values. But in Nigeria, parties function more as vehicles for power acquisition than as platforms for policy direction. When governors or legislators switch allegiance, it often reflects a calculation of political advantage, not a shift in conviction,” she said.
The unfolding realignment also mirrors a trend observed during the tenure of former President Olusegun Obasanjo in the early 2000s, when the PDP dominated nearly all state governments and the National Assembly. Analysts warn that if unchecked, the APC’s current consolidation of power could lead to a similar one-party hegemony, stifling opposition voices and weakening checks and balances in governance. Some critics fear that the trend may embolden the ruling party to use state institutions to suppress dissent ahead of 2027, particularly in states where opposition control remains strong.
Beyond politics, the defections are also seen as strategic moves to secure state-level access to federal projects and funding. Under Nigeria’s federal structure, the central government wields significant influence over resource allocation, infrastructure development, and security operations. For governors, aligning with the party in power at the centre often means easier access to federal goodwill and cooperation. Governor Mbah, for instance, has been lobbying for federal intervention in reviving the Enugu coal corridor, completing road networks linking the South-East to other regions, and addressing security challenges posed by separatist agitations. In Bayelsa, Governor Diri has consistently pushed for greater federal engagement in the Niger Delta, particularly in environmental clean-up efforts and oil revenue management. Analysts say these legitimate concerns are being leveraged by the APC to lure opposition governors into its fold.
Within the PDP, reactions to the looming defections have been mixed. Some members blame the national leadership under Umar Damagum for failing to reconcile aggrieved stakeholders and rebuild the party’s internal cohesion. Others accuse prominent PDP figures of complicity in the defections, citing personal deals and survival politics. A former PDP lawmaker told reporters, “We warned about this months ago. The party has been rudderless since the 2023 election defeat. Governors are left to fend for themselves. The APC is capitalising on that vacuum. What’s happening now is the culmination of neglect.”
Meanwhile, the defections have also sparked conversations about the moral and legal implications of political cross-carpeting. Although Section 109 of the Nigerian Constitution prohibits lawmakers from defecting except in cases of internal crisis within their party, there are no similar restrictions for governors. As a result, Nigeria’s political class has frequently exploited this loophole, turning defection into a survival tool rather than an ethical dilemma. Critics have long called for constitutional reforms to make political defection more accountable and to preserve party discipline.
At the grassroots level, both Enugu and Bayelsa residents have expressed cautious optimism about the possible benefits of realignment. Some believe that joining the ruling party may enhance their states’ access to federal support, while others fear it could weaken the states’ bargaining power and accountability mechanisms. “If joining APC will bring development, why not? But we don’t want our leaders to sell us out just for personal gain,” said Chijioke Okafor, a trader in Enugu. Similarly, a Bayelsa civil servant, Martha Ebikeme, noted, “We’ve seen defections before, and nothing changed. What matters is delivery, not party colour.”
Observers believe that Tinubu’s broader political strategy is to stabilise his administration by neutralising opposition and expanding the APC’s influence in all geopolitical zones. The South-East and South-South remain critical to this agenda, given the APC’s historically weak presence in those regions. Bringing Mbah and Diri into the party would significantly alter the political map, giving the ruling party a foothold in areas long dominated by the PDP. It would also allow the President to project himself as a unifying national figure ahead of 2027, while simultaneously disempowering opposition structures at the state level.
Yet, the potential backlash cannot be ignored. Civil rights organisations and democracy advocates warn that the growing imbalance of power could shrink civic space and hinder democratic accountability. The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) in a statement cautioned that “a democracy without a credible opposition is a democracy in decline.” The group urged political leaders to prioritise institution-building over opportunistic alliances. “While political collaboration can promote stability, it becomes dangerous when it eliminates checks on executive power. Nigeria’s democracy thrives on diversity of opinion and political competition,” the statement read.
As political manoeuvring continues behind the scenes, both Governors Mbah and Diri have remained publicly silent about their intentions. However, sources close to the two leaders suggest that their official announcements may come after further consultations with local stakeholders and traditional rulers to manage the optics of the transition. In the meantime, the PDP leadership is reportedly reaching out to other governors to prevent further defections, while intensifying efforts to rebuild grassroots structures ahead of future elections.
The wave of defections, while not entirely new in Nigeria’s political history, underscores the persistent challenge of building a stable, issue-based democracy. With ideology largely absent from the political process, power continues to revolve around personalities, patronage, and pragmatism. For many Nigerians, the defection of governors and lawmakers no longer shocks; it only reinforces the belief that political allegiance in the country is fluid and transactional.
As the countdown to 2027 begins, President Tinubu’s administration appears determined to consolidate political control under the banner of unity and progress. Whether this translates into genuine governance reforms or deepens Nigeria’s culture of political opportunism remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the defection of key opposition figures such as Peter Mbah and Douye Diri will significantly reshape Nigeria’s political equilibrium — and perhaps, once again, test the resilience of its democratic ideals.