Nigeria’s domestic refineries turned sharply to foreign crude in July, buying 5.13 million barrels from abroad, a 151.5 per cent jump from the 2.04 million barrels imported in June, as local deliveries to the plants weakened once more. The figures, contained in the July 2026 Midstream and Downstream Statistics of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, NMDPRA, capture a problem that has trailed the country’s refining drive for almost two years: a stubborn gap between the crude allocated to local refineries and the volume that actually reaches them.
According to the NMDPRA, domestic refineries received 17.88 million barrels of crude in July, made up of 12.75 million barrels supplied locally and 5.13 million barrels imported. Imported crude therefore accounted for 28.7 per cent of total receipts during the month, up from a much smaller share in June. Total receipts themselves fell by 6.5 per cent, from 19.12 million barrels in June, while domestic supply dropped by 25.4 per cent, from 17.08 million barrels. The regulator put the average daily crude allocation to the plants at 585,000 barrels in July, down from 632,000 barrels a month earlier.
The July spike fits a volatile pattern through 2026. NMDPRA data show imported crude rose from 0.71 million barrels in January to 4.25 million in February before peaking at 9.43 million barrels in March, the highest monthly figure so far this year. Imports then collapsed to 0.41 million barrels in April, recovered to 2.08 million in May and 2.04 million in June, then climbed again in July. The swings track the uneven flow of Nigerian crude to the refineries rather than any settled trend, with importation rising whenever domestic supply falls short.
Much of the pressure falls on one facility. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the 650,000 barrels per day plant in Lagos that supplies more than 60 per cent of domestic fuel, operated at an average capacity utilisation of 71.09 per cent in July. That marked a steep drop from June, when the NMDPRA recorded utilisation of 101.36 per cent, meaning the plant had been running above its rated capacity. In July it produced an average of 25.9 million litres of petrol, 19.1 million litres of diesel and 15.6 million litres of aviation fuel a day, and closed the month with 446.1 million litres of petrol in storage.
The state owned refineries offered no relief. The NMDPRA confirmed that the Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna plants owned by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited remained shut throughout July and produced nothing, leaving Dangote as the only major active large scale refinery in the country. That concentration is one reason the import numbers matter. When a single plant supplies most of the market, any disruption to its crude intake feeds quickly into supply, price and the nation’s foreign exchange position.
The heart of the matter lies in the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation and the naira for crude arrangement. Under a directive approved by the Federal Executive Council in October 2024, the NNPC was to supply about 385,000 barrels of crude a day to Dangote in local currency, a scheme meant to ease pressure on the naira and lower pump prices. In practice, deliveries have repeatedly fallen below target.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, showed that in the first quarter of 2026, 61.9 million barrels were allocated to local refineries and producers offered 68.7 million barrels, but actual deliveries came to only 28.5 million barrels, about 46 per cent of the volume allocated. The commission said producer compliance later improved to more than 90 per cent, measured against allocated volumes rather than refinery demand.
Dangote’s management has said the shortfall forces it into costly foreign purchases. The refinery’s chief executive, David Bird, said earlier in the year that the plant was receiving only about five of the 13 to 15 crude cargoes it needed each month under the programme, obtaining the rest from suppliers in Brazil, Angola, Algeria, the United States and elsewhere, at times paying premiums as high as 18 dollars a barrel over the Brent benchmark. In July, Reuters reported that the refinery had begun pricing some local fuel sales in dollars, citing difficulties securing enough crude and higher global prices. Analysts have linked the domestic squeeze to Nigeria’s oil backed loans and joint venture contracts, which tie up much of national output before it can reach the refineries.
The NNPC has rejected suggestions that it is withholding crude. Its spokesman, Andy Odeh, said in July that “NNPC Limited has met its 2026 supply obligations to the refinery,” adding that the two sides were resolving any gaps together. The Federal Government is separately reviewing the domestic crude framework, with officials weighing new rules to cut feedstock costs that Dangote says add three to four dollars a barrel because purchases are routed through producers’ trading arms.
For consumers, the crude question is inseparable from price. Dangote raised its petrol gantry price by 20 naira a litre, from 1,165 to 1,185 naira, with effect from 21 August 2026, underscoring how feedstock costs move through to the pump. Every barrel imported also drains scarce dollars, working against the very currency relief the naira for crude scheme was designed to deliver.
What is confirmed is that imports rose again in July, that domestic supply fell, and that the country’s largest refinery ran well below its June peak. What remains unresolved is whether the reworked crude framework, still under review, will finally close the gap between the barrels Nigeria allocates on paper and the barrels its refineries actually receive.