Food Inflation Returns to Double Digits
Nigeria’s food inflation rate climbed back into double-digit territory in February 2026, rising to 12.12 per cent and reversing the single-digit slowdown recorded just one month earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.
The February figure represents a sharp month-on-month increase of 3.23 percentage points from the 8.89 per cent recorded in January 2026, signalling renewed pressure on household food costs and raising concerns about the sustainability of recent price stability gains. The January reading had marked the first single-digit food inflation rate in over a decade, offering temporary relief to Nigerian households grappling with elevated living costs.
Despite the monthly surge, the year-on-year comparison shows substantial improvement over the previous year. The NBS report stated, “The Food inflation rate in February 2026 was 12.12 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This was 14.86 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in February 2025 (26.98 per cent).”
On a month-on-month basis, food prices rose by 4.69 per cent in February, reflecting what the statistics office described as a resurgence in short-term price pressures across food markets nationwide. The bureau attributed the increase to rising prices of several staple items that form the core of Nigerian household consumption.
The report stated that the surge was “attributed to the rate of increase in the average prices of Beans, Carrots, Okazi Leaf, Cassava Tuber, Crayfish, Millet Flour, Yam Flour, Snails, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon) – dried ungrinded, cow peas, etc.”
Farmers across the country have pointed to escalating input costs as the primary driver of rising food prices, calling on the federal government to intervene urgently to stabilize production costs and prevent further price increases.
The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending February 2026 stood at 19.08 per cent, according to the NBS. This represents a significant drop from the 37.40 per cent recorded in February 2025, indicating a longer-term easing trend despite the monthly volatility. The report stated, “The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending February 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 19.08 per cent, which was 18.31 percentage points lower compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in February 2025 (37.40 per cent).”
Nigeria’s food inflation crisis has been building since 2015, driven by a combination of factors including foreign exchange volatility, insecurity in major food-producing regions, high transportation costs, and climate variability affecting agricultural yields. Between 2020 and 2023, food inflation consistently remained above 20 per cent, peaking at over 40 per cent in early 2024 as the naira’s devaluation and fuel subsidy removal compounded price pressures across supply chains.
The temporary dip to single digits in January 2026 had been attributed to a combination of factors including improved security in some farming communities, government food importation interventions, and seasonal harvest cycles. However, the February rebound suggests that structural challenges remain unresolved, and that month-to-month price stability cannot yet be guaranteed.
State-level data released by the NBS showed significant regional variations in food price movements, reflecting differences in local production capacity, security conditions, and market access. On a year-on-year basis, Kogi recorded the highest food inflation rate at 26.91 per cent, followed by Adamawa at 23.12 per cent and Benue at 21.89 per cent.
Conversely, Katsina recorded the slowest increase in food prices at 5.09 per cent, while Bauchi and Imo posted 7.09 per cent and 7.65 per cent respectively. The relatively lower inflation rates in northern states like Katsina and Bauchi likely reflect stronger agricultural production bases and better food availability compared with states experiencing higher insecurity or supply chain disruptions.
On a month-on-month basis, Bayelsa recorded the highest increase in food prices at 8.81 per cent, followed by Ebonyi at 8.51 per cent and Edo at 7.72 per cent. Meanwhile, Katsina recorded a slight decline in food inflation at minus 0.70 per cent, while Nasarawa and Kano recorded increases of 0.17 per cent and 1.39 per cent respectively.
The February Consumer Price Index report also showed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased marginally during the period, declining to 15.06 per cent from 15.10 per cent in January. The report stated, “In February 2026, the Headline inflation rate eased to 15.06 per cent, down from 15.10 per cent in January 2026,” indicating a slight moderation in the pace of price increases across the broader economy.
The Consumer Price Index rose to 130.0 in February 2026 from 127.4 in January, reflecting a 2.6-point increase within the month. The CPI, which measures the average change over time in the prices of goods and services consumed by households, serves as the primary gauge of inflationary trends in the Nigerian economy.
According to the bureau, the inflation rate declined sharply on a year-on-year basis. “The February 2026 Headline inflation rate was 11.21 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in February 2025 (26.27 per cent),” the report noted, reflecting the impact of relative exchange rate stability and monetary tightening measures implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria over the past year.
However, despite the yearly slowdown, prices rose faster on a monthly basis. The NBS said the month-on-month inflation rate stood at 2.01 per cent in February 2026, compared with a decline of 2.88 per cent recorded in January. “This means that in February 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in January 2026,” the bureau explained.
The statistics office noted that food prices remained the largest driver of overall inflation, accounting for the highest contribution to the headline index. Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 6.03 percentage points to overall inflation, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 1.95 percentage points and transport at 1.61 percentage points.
Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels accounted for 1.27 percentage points, while education services contributed 0.93 percentage points to the headline index. The dominance of food in Nigeria’s inflation basket reflects the reality that the average Nigerian household spends a disproportionately high share of income on food, making food price movements particularly consequential for living standards and poverty levels.
Urban inflation remained slightly higher than rural inflation during the period under review. On a year-on-year basis, urban inflation stood at 15.53 per cent in February 2026, significantly lower than the 28.49 per cent recorded in February 2025. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate increased to 2.55 per cent from a decline of 2.72 per cent in January.
The NBS stated that rural inflation also declined on a yearly basis but rose compared with the previous month. Rural inflation was recorded at 13.93 per cent year-on-year in February 2026, compared with 22.73 per cent in February 2025. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation increased to 0.71 per cent in February, up from a decline of 3.29 per cent recorded in January.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices and therefore provides a clearer picture of underlying price trends, also declined on a yearly basis. According to the report, core inflation stood at 15.88 per cent year-on-year in February 2026, compared with 25.66 per cent recorded in February 2025. On a month-on-month basis, however, the core inflation rate rose to 0.89 per cent, from a decline of 1.69 per cent in January.
The NBS added that the twelve-month average inflation rate for the period ending February 2026 increased to 21.03 per cent, compared with 18.01 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, suggesting that while month-to-month improvements have occurred, the cumulative inflation burden over the year remains elevated.
State-level analysis showed wide variations in overall price movements across the country. On a year-on-year basis, Kogi recorded the highest all-items inflation rate at 23.57 per cent, followed by Benue at 22.85 per cent and Anambra at 22.09 per cent. Conversely, Katsina recorded the lowest inflation rate at 7.78 per cent, followed by Imo at 11.66 per cent and Ebonyi at 11.71 per cent.
On a month-on-month basis, Enugu recorded the highest inflation increase at 5.92 per cent, followed by Ogun at 4.39 per cent and Anambra at 4.11 per cent. Meanwhile, Zamfara recorded the steepest decline in monthly inflation at minus 2.14 per cent, followed by Bauchi at minus 1.23 per cent and Katsina at minus 1.06 per cent. The bureau noted that inflation comparisons across states should be interpreted carefully because consumption patterns and weights used in calculating the CPI differ across locations.
The return of double-digit food inflation comes amid growing concerns within the agricultural sector about input costs and profitability. In February 2026, reports emerged that farmers across the country were considering scaling down or completely boycotting the upcoming planting season as rising input costs and falling produce prices continue to squeeze profit margins.
The President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, Mohammed Magaji, said many farmers are already reconsidering their participation in this year’s farming cycle due to mounting losses. “It’s very bad in the sense that the farmers will not go to farm again. Most of the farmers we are talking to now are saying they will not go to farm this time around; they will wait and buy. What does it mean? It has a lot of implications,” Magaji said in comments reported in February.
The threat of reduced planting activity raises serious concerns about food security in the coming months, as lower agricultural output would likely trigger another surge in food prices and worsen the inflation trajectory. Nigeria’s agricultural sector, which employs roughly 36 per cent of the labour force according to World Bank data, has struggled with persistent challenges including inadequate infrastructure, limited access to credit, insecurity in farming communities, and high costs of fertilizers, seeds, and fuel.
Members of the Organised Private Sector have warned that the marginal easing in headline inflation offers little tangible relief to businesses and households, citing persistent increases in food and energy costs that continue to erode purchasing power and operational viability.
The President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, said the slight drop in inflation was largely driven by seasonal demand factors rather than structural improvements in the economy. “I think the reason for the marginal reduction in the inflation rates is well imagined, and I think it’s because you would agree that until this recent time, there’s been some stability in effects, which definitely would drive down inflation. At the same time, we are now in the post-holiday season, so demand has reduced because the Christmas and New Year period has passed, and purchases are not very tight,” Egbesola said.
He stressed that the marginal decline was not enough to warrant celebration among small and medium-sized enterprises. “For us as Small and Medium Enterprises, I don’t think it is a call for celebration yet because the reduction is still very marginal, and of course, the major driver of inflation, which is food, is still there, and energy costs remain high. Food and energy are big issues for SMEs, and they are still high,” he said.
Egbesola added that the current inflation figures have not translated into relief for businesses or households. “At the moment, this is not reflecting in businesses, this is not reflecting in the livelihood of the common man on the streets, and this is not reflecting in the prices of goods, commodities, and services. Prices continue to go higher, particularly with the recent increase in fuel prices,” he said.
He urged the government to strengthen monetary policy measures to ensure inflation moderates further and begins to benefit businesses. “The government needs to firm up monetary policies so that they can maintain this inflation rate and possibly get it reduced further. That is the only way we can begin to see a trickle of benefits. We should not be celebrating on paper or in surveys; the results should reflect in the realities of businesses and the lives of citizens,” Egbesola said.
He also warned that rising global energy prices linked to tensions in the Middle East could push inflation higher in the coming months. “Yes, we foresee an increase in inflation in March driven by the war going on in the Middle East. We are already seeing the effect in terms of the cost of energy and even the cost of inputs that are imported from other countries, and it will reflect in the March report,” he said.
Egbesola urged businesses to reduce dependence on imported inputs. “It is also a warning for businesses not to relax yet. We need to buckle up and see how we can do backward integration to begin to use things that we have locally rather than depending more on imported goods, raw materials, or inputs,” he added.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, described the drop in headline inflation as statistically insignificant. “The decrease in headline inflation is very marginal, which is not significant; it is as good as saying that there is no material change in it. Generally, at about 15 per cent, we can say that inflation is still rather elevated,” Yusuf said.
He expressed concern about the rise in food inflation, noting that the return to double-digit levels signals persistent structural challenges. “If food inflation has jumped from single digits to about 12 per cent, then that should be concerning because we were celebrating the fact that food inflation was in single digits in January. That means we still have some challenges to deal with, especially insecurity and logistics costs,” Yusuf said.
He added that insecurity and high transportation costs continue to constrain agricultural productivity and food supply. “Productivity levels are still low, largely because of insecurity and some structural issues. Even the importation of food that helped temporarily was only a momentary intervention,” he said.
Yusuf also warned that rising energy prices could intensify inflationary pressures in the coming months. “Energy cost is a major factor in inflation. Each time we have a spike in energy cost, it increases inflation, so in March, we are likely to see the impact of this current energy crisis that we are facing and a much higher inflationary pressure,” he said.
While acknowledging the decline in core inflation, he stressed that broader structural challenges still pose risks to price stability. “The stability of the exchange rate has helped to moderate core inflation, but generally we still need to worry about what is happening to food inflation because the spike from single digits to double digits is significant,” Yusuf added.
The outlook for food prices in the coming months remains uncertain, with multiple factors likely to influence the trajectory. Rising global energy costs, ongoing security challenges in major food-producing regions, exchange rate volatility, and the potential impact of reduced planting activity by farmers could all contribute to upward pressure on food inflation. At the same time, government interventions including continued food importation, enhanced security operations in farming communities, and targeted support for agricultural input costs could help moderate price increases.
The Central Bank of Nigeria has maintained a tight monetary policy stance in recent months, raising the monetary policy rate to historic highs in an effort to control inflation and stabilize the exchange rate. However, analysts have noted that monetary policy tools have limited effectiveness in addressing food inflation, which is driven primarily by supply-side factors including production costs, security challenges, and infrastructure deficits rather than demand-side pressures.