Petrol Imports Surge 59% Despite Dominant Local Refining -NMDPRA

Nigeria’s petrol imports rose sharply by 59.5 percent in May as oil marketers turned back to foreign suppliers to shore up domestic inventory. The latest operational data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reveals that daily inbound shipments of Premium Motor Spirit climbed to 5.9 million litres, up from 3.7 million litres in April. This sudden influx of foreign fuel disrupted months of steady import contractions driven by the scaling output of local private refiners. The data underscores a persistent domestic structural vulnerability, showing that supplementary imports remain highly necessary to bridge local supply deficits.

The reliance on foreign fuel returned even as domestic refineries remained the dominant source of national fuel supply. Locally refined petrol accounted for nearly 88 percent of the total 47.4 million litres distributed daily across the country during the month. The mega Dangote Petroleum Refinery spearheaded this internal supply chain, retaining its entire motor spirit output for the domestic market and exporting zero petrol. The 650,000-barrel-per-day facility expanded its domestic delivery marginally to 41.5 million litres daily. This impressive output means that a single private enterprise effectively insulated the national transport sector from a total energy freeze.

However, beneath this dominant market share lies a concerning decline in raw feedstock allocation to local processing plants. Crude oil deliveries to domestic refineries dropped by 5.6 percent, falling from 612,000 barrels per day in April to 578,000 barrels per day in May. This supply friction directly mirrors mechanical adjustments at the Dangote plant, which temporarily reduced the operating capacity of its gasoline-making unit due to component maintenance and lighter crude feed configurations. When local production lines slow down even slightly, the national supply buffer thins rapidly, forcing regulators to accommodate supplementary foreign shipments.

This narrow supply-demand balance has triggered an alarming contraction in the country’s national fuel stock sufficiency levels. Nigeria’s emergency petrol reserves tightened to just 16 days in May, down from a comfortable peak of 33 days recorded at the start of the year. This low inventory threshold leaves the domestic market highly exposed to minor logjam disruptions along critical maritime distribution corridors. The state-owned refining infrastructure offers zero support to cushion these shocks. The three major public refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna remained entirely inactive throughout the month, prolonging their multi-year rehabilitation drag.

The structural transition toward full domestic energy self-sufficiency remains highly uneven across different refined product categories. While petrol required external support, the domestic middle-distillate market recorded extraordinary gains. Local diesel production jumped by 121.2 percent to 18.8 million litres per day, entirely erasing the national need for foreign diesel imports during the month. Similarly, localized aviation fuel supply climbed 38.5 percent to 3.6 million litres daily, outpacing national consumption. These distinct successes demonstrate that local processing plants can eliminate foreign dependence when feedstock allocations remain consistent.

Ultimately, ninety days of erratic import data show that building national fuel security requires much more than simply constructing massive refining complexes. The regulatory apparatus cannot comfortably lock out foreign fuel traders while domestic crude feed allocations remain volatile. Until the state guarantees uninterrupted crude feedstock flows to local private refiners, supplementary imports will continue to return to bridge the gaps. True energy independence will arrive only when domestic crude output consistently matches local refining capacity.