Revenue collected by Nigeria’s electricity distribution companies rose from N218.16 billion in the first half of 2018 to about N1.2 trillion in the same period of 2026, an increase of roughly 450 per cent. Over the same eight years, total electricity supply grew by just 4.8 per cent, from 16,861 gigawatt-hours to 17,668GWh, according to figures from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission.
The gap is even wider over a decade. Annual DisCo revenue climbed from N302.93 billion in 2016 to N2.32 trillion in 2025, a rise of about 666 per cent. Average daily power generation moved from 3,276 megawatts to 4,475MW over the same period, an increase of roughly 36 per cent. In 2025 alone, revenue rose from N1.66 trillion to N2.32 trillion while annual supply fell 15.7 per cent, from 37,093.70GWh in 2024 to 31,251GWh.
The supply side has weakened. Average available generation capacity fell 41 per cent, from 7,565.5MW in the first half of 2018 to 4,456MW in the first half of 2026. NERC’s first-quarter 2026 report put average available capacity at 4,457.96MW, with actual average hourly generation at 4,112.72MW, still below the government’s 6,000MW target. The country has installed capacity of more than 13,000MW, but a combination of gas constraints, grid limitations and plant maintenance keeps output far below what the system can carry.
The revenue itself is incomplete. DisCos received N1.9 trillion worth of energy from the market in the first half of 2026 but collected N1.2 trillion, leaving N700.53 billion unpaid. Collection efficiency has improved over the years, but aggregate technical, commercial and collection losses across the 11 utilities stood at 37.03 per cent in 2025, well above the 20.54 per cent allowed under the multi-year tariff order. Kaduna recorded the highest loss rate at 71.88 per cent, followed by Jos at 62.15 per cent and Yola at 61.19 per cent, while Eko posted the lowest at 16.13 per cent. Only about 55 per cent of customers were metered as of the third quarter of 2025.
Behind the distribution figures sits a subsidy bill that the government has struggled to fund. NERC put the Federal Government’s gross tariff subsidy obligation at N1.928 trillion in 2025, or 57.44 per cent of the total Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading invoice, averaging N160.69 billion a month. The obligation fell from N536.40 billion in the first quarter to N418.79 billion in the fourth, but the underlying gap between cost-reflective tariffs and what consumers pay remains. Nigeria’s average allowed end-user tariff in 2025 was $0.08 per kilowatt-hour, compared with $0.27 in South Africa, $0.18 in Ghana and $0.22 in Kenya.
The government has turned to the bond market to settle legacy debts owed to generation companies, estimated at about N6 trillion. In September 2026, it signed a N728.979 billion Series 2 bond under a N4 trillion power sector debt reduction programme, comprising N402 billion in cash bonds and N326.979 billion in non-cash bonds allotted to participating GenCos. The first series, completed in January 2026, raised about N501 billion, bringing total bond issuance under the programme to roughly N1.23 trillion.
The debt overhang has real consequences. Early in 2026, 16 of the country’s 33 power plants were not supplying the grid, with the remaining facilities generating a combined 3,705MW, according to industry data. Generation companies have warned that unpaid obligations affect their ability to buy gas, maintain equipment and keep plants running.
Thirteen years after the November 2013 privatisation of generation and distribution assets, the reform has not delivered the transformation its architects promised. The distribution companies were handed over to private investors with the expectation that commercial discipline would drive investment and improve service. That expectation has collided with a tariff regime that is politically difficult to adjust, a metering gap that leaves revenue exposed, and a transmission network that cannot always move what is generated.
The Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, has pointed to recent gains, citing generation and transmission above 5,000MW over several weeks and a peak of 5,330MW in August and September 2026. He has also flagged the restoration of the 375MW Alaoji plant and transformer upgrades in Lagos and Abuja that unlocked more than 900MW of transmission capacity. The Rural Electrification Agency estimates that about 85 million Nigerians still lack access to electricity.
Bode Fadipe, a lawyer and lead consultant at Sage Consulting on the power sector, said the revenue and supply figures raise a straightforward question about value for money. “What this data has just confirmed is that Nigerians have been paying for darkness,” he said. He called for strict enforcement of NERC’s investment directive and forensic audits of DisCo spending.
Princewill Okorie of the Electricity Consumer Protection Advocacy Centre said the revenue numbers do not answer the question of how bills are generated. “The appropriate question to ask is: how did they generate these bills? Were they justifiably, accountably and transparently generated?” he asked.
Lanre Babalola, special adviser to the President on power and chairman of the Presidential Task Force on Power Sector Reset and Restoration, has acknowledged that the reform remains unfinished. “Our deeper problem is that we have not yet built a system capable of consistently converting available capacity into reliable electricity, commercial value and sustainable investment,” he said.
The figures do not resolve that problem. They show a sector collecting more money than ever while delivering only marginally more power, carrying a debt burden that has forced the government into the bond market, and still short of the generation target it set for itself.