Osun Election: 29 Deaths Claimed As Violence Claims Deepen
The final 48 hours before Saturday’s Osun governorship election have shifted attention from campaign promises to a more troubling question: how much violence has the state actually recorded, and can voters safely participate in the poll?
The Accord Party says at least 29 people have been killed in incidents it links to the political crisis in Osun, while Senator Francis Fadahunsi, the APC lawmaker representing Osun East, has put the figure above 40 in his own account of violence in the district. Neither figure has been independently established as the official death toll from election related violence.
The competing figures matter because they show how difficult it is to establish a reliable picture of the security situation when rival political camps are providing sharply different accounts.
Accord’s national chairman, Maxwell Mgbudem, made the 29 death claim in a letter dated August 12 to Gautier Migot, Head of the European Union Delegation to Nigeria and ECOWAS. The party asked the EU to use preventive diplomacy to help reduce tensions before Saturday’s election. It also alleged that more than 60 of its members and supporters had been arrested and detained in Abuja and Nasarawa State.
Those are allegations contained in a political party’s petition, not independently verified casualty or arrest figures.
There are now at least two competing casualty counts in the public record.
Accord says 29 people have died in incidents allegedly connected to the political situation.
Fadahunsi says more than 40 people were killed in Osun East during the past year, including what he claimed were 30 APC members killed within the last month. He also alleged that 12 APC members were killed within 24 hours in recent attacks. The Adeleke camp has rejected his account.
The gap between the figures is substantial, but neither should automatically be treated as the definitive death toll.
The claims cover different geographical and possibly different time periods. Accord’s figure concerns deaths it links to the political environment across Osun, while Fadahunsi’s account focuses heavily on Osun East and includes incidents from the preceding year.
That makes direct comparison difficult without a verified incident by incident database showing the location, date, victim, cause of death and whether each case was confirmed as politically motivated.
The casualty claims are not occurring in a vacuum.
INEC’s Osun Resident Electoral Commissioner, Oluwatoyin Babalola, said in June that the commission had identified 385 security flashpoints across the state’s 30 local government areas. It also identified about 200 difficult terrains that could complicate access during the election.
The 385 figure does not mean 385 places have experienced confirmed political violence. INEC described them as flashpoints identified through its risk assessment and shared the findings with security agencies.
Even that assessment has been challenged. Accord officials and a federal lawmaker questioned how the locations were classified and called for greater transparency over the assessment.
So the available evidence points to a state where security concerns were identified well before the latest political dispute, but it does not establish that every reported incident is election related.
The controversy over the casualty figures has unfolded alongside the dispute over Fadahunsi’s viral “kill Accord” remark.
The senator was questioned by police for more than two hours on Wednesday. He denied inciting violence and said his words were interpreted incorrectly. He told journalists that he meant APC supporters would “kill them with our votes” at the election. Police said the invitation was intended to clarify statements capable of causing public disturbance.
The remark has nevertheless attracted demands for action from Amnesty International and the National Human Rights Commission.
The NHRC called for Fadahunsi’s suspension, arrest and possible prosecution pending investigation, while Amnesty urged authorities to hold him accountable over what it described as alleged incitement.
The senator’s own response has been to shift attention back to violence allegedly suffered by APC supporters, which the Adeleke camp has rejected.
That exchange is important because it shows the difficulty of separating genuine security concerns from partisan claims in the final stage of the campaign.
The Federal Government has nevertheless treated the security situation as serious enough to strengthen the election command structure.
Inspector General of Police Olatunji Disu deployed Deputy Inspector General Ishyaku Mohammed to coordinate police operations for the election. Assistant Inspectors General and Commissioners of Police were also deployed across the three senatorial districts, according to the police.
The police said the operation would protect voters, INEC officials, election materials, polling units, collation centres, observers and journalists.
That deployment does not prove the rival casualty claims. It does, however, show that security agencies are preparing for a high risk election environment.
The most important unresolved issue is the actual scale of election related violence.
The public figures now range from 29 deaths claimed by Accord to more than 40 deaths claimed by Fadahunsi in Osun East alone. There are also individual cases being reported by civil society groups, including the reported death of 14 year old Ezekiel Olapade in Ilobu and other shootings and killings.
But a credible death toll requires more than competing political statements. It requires verification through police records, hospital records, death certificates, court documents, credible eyewitness accounts and, where possible, independent incident reporting.
Until such records are reconciled, the safest conclusion is not that Osun has recorded either 29 or more than 40 confirmed election related deaths. It is that rival political actors are reporting serious casualties, while electoral authorities and security agencies have already identified significant security risks.
The EU intervention sought by Accord is therefore about prevention rather than proof of the party’s allegations.
With voting only days away, the immediate test is whether the security arrangements now being deployed can prevent further violence and allow voters to participate without intimidation.