Petrol Pricing Under Scrutiny As NMDPRA Proposes Competition Rules
Nigeria’s petroleum regulator has moved to place the country’s fuel pricing culture under formal competition law, unveiling draft rules that would outlaw collusion, artificial scarcity and quiet coordination among operators in a market where pump prices have swung by hundreds of naira within single months.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority published a notice inviting licensees, permit holders and other stakeholders to comment within 21 days on the proposed Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Prevention of Anti-Competitive Practices and Behaviour Regulations, in compliance with Section 216(1) of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, which requires consultation before regulations are finalised. The notice was signed by the Authority Chief Executive, Rabiu A. Umar, and a stakeholders’ consultation forum is fixed for September 22, 2026, at the Authority’s headquarters in Abuja.
The draft, set out under a part titled Collusive Agreements and Anti-Competitive Coordination, targets agreements, arrangements and understandings, whether formal or informal, written or oral, explicit or tacit, that have the object or effect of preventing, restricting or distorting competition. Its prohibitions cover coordinated pump prices, ex-depot prices, margins, discounts and freight charges; market allocation by customer, territory or supply area; bid rigging in procurement; joint reductions in imports or production that create scarcity; and tacit collusion through trade associations or public signalling. Exchange of commercially sensitive information, including future pricing plans, production schedules, customer lists and bidding intentions, would also fall within the ban where such disclosure weakens competition.
The proposal lands directly on top of an unresolved dispute. The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria accused major fuel importers of selling imported petrol at about N1,350 per litre, saying the practice defeated the purpose of import licences meant to encourage competition and moderate prices. IPMAN’s National Publicity Secretary, Chinedu Ukadike, named AA Rano and Matrix among the importers, saying the licences issued to them were being used to peg petrol far above what Dangote had been selling to marketers. The importers had notified marketers on July 16, 2026 that depot prices would rise from N1,230 to N1,350 per litre from July 17, citing higher cargo costs. Those allegations remain contested and no regulatory finding of collusion has been published.
Weeks earlier, the competition regulator had already sounded a warning. The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, in a statement issued on June 28 by its Director of Corporate Affairs, Ondaje Ijagwu, said gantry and retail prices showed only token reductions that did not match the steep fall in global crude prices, with petrol still averaging about N1,200 nationwide while some local refiners quoted gantry prices between N1,025 and N1,075. The Commission’s Executive Vice Chairman, Tunji Bello, said liberalisation does not remove the duty to compete fairly, adding that credible evidence of anti-competitive conduct would attract investigation and enforcement. Under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act 2018, firms found liable for anti-competitive practices face fines of up to 10 per cent of the preceding year’s turnover, alongside divestiture orders and injunctions.
Official price data explain the pressure on regulators. National Bureau of Statistics figures show the average pump price stood at N1,034.76 per litre in January 2026 and N1,051.47 in February, before surging to N1,288.54 in March, N1,532.93 in April and N1,596.25 in May.
The May figure represented a 55.31 per cent rise over the N1,027.76 recorded in May 2025, with Edo posting the highest state average at N1,722.91 and Bauchi following at N1,715.47. Diesel moved even faster, climbing 50.16 per cent month on month to an average of N2,474.69 per litre in April.
Supply data tell a parallel story of concentration and reversal. NMDPRA reported that Dangote Petroleum Refinery accounted for 87.55 per cent of petrol supplied to the domestic market in May 2026, delivering 41.5 million litres daily out of total supply of 47.4 million litres, while imports accounted for 5.9 million litres per day.
Between January and May, the refinery supplied about 5.836 billion litres against roughly 1.330 billion litres imported by marketers, giving it about 81.4 per cent of total supply. That balance flipped sharply within weeks. The regulator’s June fact sheet showed imports jumping 207 per cent to 18.1 million litres per day, domestic output falling 22 per cent to 32.5 million litres, and daily consumption rising 7 per cent to 50.6 million litres. Consumption for the first half of 2026 came to about 9.316 billion litres, marginally below the 9.368 billion litres of the same period in 2025. NMDPRA’s May statistics also classified the Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries as being under shutdown status, leaving the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote plant as the country’s main refining hub.
Competition in the sector is being litigated as well as regulated. Dangote Petroleum Refinery, in suit number FHC/L/CS/857/2026, is asking the Federal High Court in Lagos to nullify import licences it says were issued or renewed around May 6, 2026 in favour of NNPC Limited and marketers including NIPCO, AA Rano, Matrix, Shafa, Pinnacle and Bono, arguing that the approvals breached an April 29 order to maintain the status quo and contravene Section 317(9) of the PIA, which permits imports only where a domestic shortfall is proven.
The matter was adjourned to October 7 after the judge was unavailable. NNPC, in a preliminary objection, urged the court to dismiss the suit, contending that the PIA and the Backwards Integration Policy empower NMDPRA to issue import licences to safeguard availability and energy security. In earlier proceedings on a similar 2024 suit, NMDPRA maintained that it is also mandated to promote competition and prevent abuse of dominance in the sector.
NMDPRA was created in August 2021 under the PIA from the merger of the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency, the Petroleum Equalisation Fund Management Board and the midstream and downstream divisions of the former Department of Petroleum Resources, with a mandate that includes promoting competition and private sector participation.
Umar was confirmed by the Senate on May 7, 2026, after President Bola Tinubu nominated him on April 29 following the removal of Saidu Mohammed. His career includes senior roles at Oando Plc, Ashaka Cement and six years as Group Chief Commercial Officer at Dangote Group, a background market participants have noted given the refinery’s weight in the market he now regulates.
The draft also fits a wider transparency push. Umar, who chairs the West Africa Regulators Forum, has argued for a regional pricing benchmark, saying the aim is a credible marketplace where products trade efficiently and transparently, ahead of the second West Africa Refined Fuel Conference holding in Abuja on August 11 and 12, 2026 with S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Prices continue to move while the consultation runs. Dangote cut its ex-depot petrol price to N1,165 per litre from N1,215 and diesel to N1,570 from N1,650, effective August 6. Pinnacle responded at N1,175 per litre, with other depots yet to fully align. NNPC outlets in Lagos were selling at N1,265 per litre after a N35 reduction, while its Abuja price was cut to N1,299 from N1,335.
Whether the regulations survive stakeholder scrutiny in their current form, and how their enforcement will sit alongside the FCCPC’s existing statutory powers, remains to be determined. Submissions close 21 days from publication, with the Abuja forum in September the first public test of industry appetite for the rules.