Fuel Imports: NMDPRA Denies 2026 Approvals
Vessels carrying 129,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit and Automotive Gas Oil are scheduled to dock at Nigerian ports between March 14 and 17, 2026, even as the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority maintains that no new petrol import licences have been issued this year.
The arrivals, documented in the Nigerian Ports Authority’s Shipping Position Daily obtained on Monday, March 16, include multiple vessels delivering substantial volumes of refined petroleum products to Lagos and Calabar ports at a time when Nigerians are grappling with retail petrol prices exceeding N1,200 per litre in most locations across the country.
According to the shipping manifest, the vessel Mosunmola arrived at Lagos Ports via the Bulk Oil Plant on Sunday, March 14, carrying 20,000 metric tonnes of PMS. Another vessel, Kobe, docked at Kirikiri Lighter Terminal Phase 2, Tin Can Island Port, on the same day with 22,000 metric tonnes of AGO.
On Tuesday, March 17, Bora is scheduled to arrive at Kirikiri Lighter Terminal 3B with 27,000 metric tonnes of PMS, while Ashabi will deliver 30,000 metric tonnes of AGO to the same terminal. Additionally, Oluwajuwonlo offloaded 15,000 metric tonnes of PMS at Calabar Ports through Ecomarine Nigeria Limited on Sunday, March 15, and Mosunmola is expected to deliver another 15,000 metric tonnes of PMS to Calabar Ports via a North West Petroleum Gas Company Limited terminal on March 17.
The vessel arrivals have sparked questions about the apparent contradiction between NMDPRA’s public position on import licences and the continued flow of imported petroleum products into Nigerian ports, particularly as the country faces one of its most severe fuel price crises in recent years.
Retail petrol prices have surged to between N1,200 and N1,300 per litre in several areas following Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s decision to raise its gantry price for PMS to N1,175 per litre. The increase has triggered a cascade of economic consequences, pushing up transport fares and driving up the cost of goods and services nationwide. Economic analysts have projected that petrol costs could exceed N1,500 or approach N2,000 per litre if escalating tensions between the United States and Iran continue to drive crude oil prices higher, with Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel.
Labour unions and private sector leaders have called on the Federal Government to provide relief measures, with some stakeholders suggesting subsidies to mitigate the impact on citizens and businesses. The Nigeria Labour Congress and Trade Union Congress have warned that continued price increases could exacerbate inflation, which stood at 34.8 per cent in January 2026 according to the National Bureau of Statistics, and further erode purchasing power among workers already struggling with stagnant wages.
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria has confirmed that independent marketers are prepared to lift imported products to ensure availability and maintain competition in the downstream petroleum sector.
IPMAN spokesperson Chinedu Ukadike stated, “We, the independent marketers, are always on the receiving side. Wherever the product is coming from, and it is in the tanks of depot owners or NNPC, we will buy it. The most important thing is availability. If NMDPRA made a statement categorically that there is no import licence, I don’t know where this one is coming from. But we are ready to receive the products and sell. Maybe that will also breed competition, and this price volatility may have sustainability. So, I think it is also a welcome development.”
Ukadike suggested that the incoming vessels might be operating under licences issued in 2025, noting that delays at sea, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz where geopolitical tensions have disrupted shipping routes, could explain their late arrival in Nigerian waters.
“It might also be an old importation licence issued since last year. It is acceptable. The imported products would not have any impact on prices unless the price of crude oil declines. The price depends on the volume and cost of the product because there is nothing like a reduction in prices when Brent is still selling for over $100,” he said.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has moved to clarify the apparent contradiction, asserting that while no new import licences were issued in the first quarter of 2026, vessels arriving at Nigerian ports are operating under licences granted in late 2025 that remain valid.
A source within NMDPRA, speaking on condition of anonymity due to lack of authorisation to speak publicly on the matter, explained that the supply shortfall observed in February was covered by leftover stocks from January and existing refinery output, rather than new imports requiring fresh licences.
“The shortfall rolled over from previous stocks. These things are simple. Our fact sheets are published monthly. There were rollover stocks. Dangote didn’t export for a long time towards the end of last year. So, it was those rolled-over stocks that it supplied. Both marketers and Dangote are only jostling for market shares. Has there been a shortage? No,” the source stated.
The regulator also refuted online claims that new licences had been issued, noting that import licences are granted quarterly and that vessels take considerable time to complete their journeys from loading ports to Nigerian terminals.
“Those that were issued towards the end of last year were still being used. A licence for importation is not like taking money to the supermarket. It takes time for vessels to arrive. We have not issued any import licence this year,” the official said.
The debate over import licences has exposed tensions between different stakeholders in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, particularly regarding the balance between domestic refining capacity and continued reliance on imported products. Major dealers and importers have argued that imports remain necessary to meet national demand, pointing to figures showing that Dangote refinery produced an average of 36 million litres per day in February while national consumption was estimated at about 56 million litres per day, suggesting an apparent shortfall of 20 million litres daily.
However, NMDPRA has challenged this calculation, arguing that rollover stocks from previous months and weather-related export delays in Europe at the end of 2025 resulted in surplus inventory that closed the supply gap without requiring new imports.
Nigeria has historically relied on imported refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity, a situation that persisted for decades despite the country’s status as Africa’s largest crude oil producer. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s four domestic refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, with a combined installed capacity of 445,000 barrels per day, have operated far below capacity or remained completely shut down for extended periods due to poor maintenance, theft, and underinvestment.
This dependence on imports has cost Nigeria trillions of naira in foreign exchange and contributed to persistent fuel scarcity and price volatility. According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the country spent approximately $22 billion on petroleum product imports in 2022 alone, placing significant pressure on foreign exchange reserves and contributing to the naira’s depreciation.
The commissioning and gradual ramping up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and is considered the largest single-train refinery in the world, has fundamentally altered the dynamics of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector. The refinery began producing petrol in September 2025 and has steadily increased output, reaching an average of 36.5 million litres per day by February 2026 according to NMDPRA data.
NMDPRA confirmed that domestic refineries supplied 36.5 million litres per day in February 2026, with imports contributing just three million litres, representing approximately 92 per cent of the national daily supply from domestic sources. This marks a dramatic shift from previous years when virtually all refined petroleum products consumed in Nigeria were imported.
Chief Executive of NMDPRA, Saidu Mohammed, has warned against allowing the country to return to heavy import dependence despite pressure from various interest groups.
“We have not issued a single licence for petrol importation this year. Some interests still push for large-scale importation despite our progress in domestic refining,” Mohammed said during a meeting with a delegation from The PUNCH at the agency’s Abuja headquarters.
The regulatory authority’s position reflects the Federal Government’s broader policy objective of achieving self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products and reducing the country’s vulnerability to international price fluctuations and supply disruptions. The Petroleum Industry Act of 2021, which established NMDPRA as the regulatory body for Nigeria’s midstream and downstream petroleum operations, mandates the agency to promote competitive markets, ensure adequate supply, and protect consumer interests while encouraging investment in domestic refining capacity.
However, questions remain about whether domestic production can consistently meet national demand, particularly during periods of peak consumption or unexpected supply disruptions. Industry observers have noted that Nigeria’s actual daily petrol consumption remains a subject of debate, with estimates ranging from 40 million to 66 million litres per day depending on the methodology used and assumptions about smuggling to neighbouring countries where fuel prices are significantly higher.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, which serves as the off-taker for Dangote refinery’s petrol production under an agreement structured in naira rather than dollars, has not publicly released comprehensive consumption data for 2026. NNPCL’s role as sole off-taker has itself generated controversy, with independent marketers and other stakeholders calling for a more liberalised market structure that would allow direct purchases from the refinery.
Transport operators have been among the hardest hit by the recent price increases. The National Union of Road Transport Workers and the Road Transport Employers Association of Nigeria have announced fare increases of between 30 and 50 per cent on various routes, citing unsustainable operating costs. In Lagos, the minimum bus fare on major routes increased from N300 to N500, while intercity travel costs have risen proportionately.
Small businesses, particularly those dependent on diesel-powered generators due to inadequate electricity supply, have also faced mounting operational challenges. The Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises reported that many members are considering scaling down operations or temporary closures as energy costs erode profit margins.
The convergence of rising fuel prices, persistent inflation, and currency depreciation has created a perfect storm for Nigerian consumers already grappling with reduced purchasing power. Food prices have climbed alongside transport costs, with the composite food index rising to 39.8 per cent year-on-year in January 2026 according to NBS data.
International crude oil prices have been driven higher by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where military confrontations involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have raised concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 21 per cent of global petroleum passes, has become a focal point of concern as regional tensions have intensified shipping insurance costs and delayed vessel movements.
Brent crude, the international benchmark against which Nigerian crude grades are priced, has traded above $100 per barrel for several consecutive weeks, reaching levels not seen since 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted global energy markets. Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights have warned that sustained conflict in the Middle East could push prices toward $120 per barrel or higher, which would translate to further increases in pump prices for Nigerian consumers given the country’s market-based pricing mechanism.
The Dangote refinery’s pricing structure remains tied to international crude oil costs and refining margins, meaning that domestic production does not insulate Nigerian consumers from global price movements. The refinery sources its crude feedstock from both Nigerian fields and international markets, with processing costs and profit margins added to determine the ex-refinery price at which products are sold to NNPCL.
Civil society organisations and consumer rights groups have called for greater transparency in the pricing mechanism and questioned whether the benefits of domestic refining are being adequately passed on to consumers. The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project has demanded that the Federal Government publish detailed breakdowns of fuel pricing components, including taxes, margins, and distribution costs, to enable public scrutiny.
The recent vessel arrivals, while ensuring product availability in the short term, largely reflect past import licences and logistical delays rather than new authorisations from NMDPRA. However, the continued presence of imports in the supply mix has reignited debates about Nigeria’s pathway toward self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products and the appropriate balance between domestic refining capacity and strategic imports to ensure supply security.