Nigeria Records Marginal Rise in Import and Export Indices

Nigeria’s all-commodity group import index rose by a marginal 0.11 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday attribute the uptick primarily to higher costs for paper-making materials, textiles, and mineral products. Simultaneously, the export price index increased by 0.12 per cent, driven by price gains in manufactured articles, vehicles, and base metals. These minute shifts left the country’s Terms of Trade (TOT) virtually flat, with a negligible 0.01 per cent increase.

The slight rise in import costs reflects a steady, if uninspired, demand for industrial inputs. Stone, plaster, cement, and asbestos joined paperboard as the main drivers of the index. On the export side, the increase in prices for vessels and aircraft parts suggests a modest strengthening in the valuation of Nigeria’s re-exports and manufactured goods. While the indices moved in lockstep, the overall picture is one of price stagnation across the country’s major trading categories at the end of last year.

Regional trade patterns remained largely consistent, with export prices rising across all territories except Oceania. The Netherlands, India, Spain, France, and Canada maintained their positions as Nigeria’s primary export destinations. This concentration underscores the country’s continued reliance on a few key European and North American markets to absorb its commodity output. Conversely, import prices rose across the board, suggesting that global inflationary pressures were felt uniformly across all trading partners.

The Terms of Trade index, which measures the ratio of export prices to import prices, remains a critical health check for the economy. A 0.01 per cent increase is essentially a rounding error, indicating that Nigeria’s purchasing power on the global stage has neither improved nor significantly deteriorated. The country is effectively running to stand still. For a nation desperate for a favourable shift in its trade balance, these figures offer little comfort beyond the absence of a sharp decline.

While these average indices show stability, they mask a deeper contraction in overall trade volume. Total merchandise trade fell by nearly 9 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2025, largely due to a slump in crude oil exports. The marginal price increases recorded by the NBS were not enough to offset the drop in total value. Consequently, Nigeria’s trade surplus moderated significantly by the close of the year, leaving the treasury increasingly dependent on non-oil price resilience.

The NBS report provides the statistical backbone for a trade environment characterised by low-level volatility. With the “all-region” group import index rising alongside exports, the net effect on the national purse is neutral. Nigeria’s trade policy continues to face the challenge of breaking out of this low-growth cycle. Until the country can significantly increase the value of its exports relative to its imports, the Terms of Trade will likely remain trapped in this marginal corridor.