NMDPRA Clears Marketers for New Petrol Imports

Nigeria has approved a fresh round of petrol and diesel imports for the July to September quarter, a move that signals renewed pressure on domestic fuel supply even as the country pushes to lean more heavily on local refining.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority issued the clean product import permits to several downstream operators, according to a report by global energy intelligence firm Argus Media published on Tuesday. The approvals went to AA Rano, AYM Shafa, Bono Energy, Nipco, Matrix Energy and Pinnacle Oil for petrol, with the same firms, except Nipco, cleared for diesel.

The regulator, quoted by Argus, said the permits were meant to forestall projected gaps in the market. “The permits were issued to head off projected shortfalls in supply,” a regulatory source said, adding that gasoline volumes would likely climb above 800,000 metric tonnes once issuance is complete. That figure would exceed the roughly 720,000 metric tonnes approved under the second quarter programme.

The fresh clearances come against a backdrop of thinning inventories. Petrol stock sufficiency fell by 1.7 days to 16 days in May, while diesel cover dropped eight days to 31 days, according to data cited by Argus. Much of the strain has been linked to lower output at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki, where gasoline production declined 16 per cent to 44.7 million litres daily even as diesel rose four per cent to 24.5 million litres. Market participants attributed the dip to maintenance on the refinery’s Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker, a key gasoline unit.

The development marks the latest twist in a policy that has swung repeatedly through 2026. NMDPRA suspended new petrol import licences in February, citing improved domestic supply, after the Dangote refinery delivered about 36.5 million litres per day and accounted for roughly 92 per cent of national supply that month. The regulator then resumed issuance in early May, granting six marketers permits worth about 600,000 metric tonnes. The back and forth has fed a long-running tussle over whether imports undercut the $20 billion refinery, which carries a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and remains the country’s only large scale producer of petrol while the Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna plants stay shut.

Notably, the Dangote facility itself continues to rely on foreign feedstock. NMDPRA figures show it imported about 1.46 billion litres of gasoline blendstock between January and May to sustain output, even reaching 101.25 per cent capacity utilisation in May.

Softer global prices may now make imports more attractive. Front month Eurobob oxy swaps, a West African gasoline benchmark, averaged $946.25 per tonne in June, down from $1,128.50 in May, while offshore Lomé diesel eased to $1,093.50 per tonne from $1,409.25.

Even so, marketers may not lift all approved volumes. Vessel tracking data from Kpler cited by Argus puts independent petrol imports at about 354,000 metric tonnes this quarter, well below the second quarter approvals, partly because permits landed midway through the period. The Dangote refinery is itself projected to import about 257,000 metric tonnes of gasoline.

For motorists, the supply picture sits atop already elevated costs. Petrol sold at about ₦1,179 per litre in mid June, with pump prices ranging between ₦1,175 and ₦1,280 depending on location, far above the ₦699 ex depot lows recorded late in 2025. The Central Bank has projected prices could hover near ₦950 in 2026, on assumptions of a steadier naira around ₦1,400 to the dollar.