Nigeria’s oil production lost some of the gains recorded in the first half of 2026, with average daily output falling from 1.74 million barrels in June to 1.67 million barrels in July, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
The four per cent monthly decline is significant, but the longer trend tells a more useful story. July output was still about 12.5 per cent higher than February’s 1.48 million barrels per day, when production hit its lowest level in the seven month period covered by the latest NUPRC figures.
The data shows a sector that has improved from its early 2026 lows but remains vulnerable to disruptions at individual producing assets.
NUPRC’s figures put combined crude oil and condensate production at 1.627 million barrels per day in January, before it fell to 1.484 million in February.
Output then recovered steadily, reaching 1.546 million barrels in March, 1.663 million in April, 1.70 million in May and 1.74 million in June. July reversed that five month recovery, with production dropping to 1.67 million barrels per day.
Put differently, Nigeria added roughly 256,000 barrels per day between February and June, before giving back about 70,000 barrels in July.
The July figure was made up of 1.505 million barrels of crude oil and about 170,000 barrels of condensate. That distinction matters because condensate is included in NUPRC’s total production figure but is treated differently from crude oil in OPEC production calculations.
Nigeria’s crude output alone therefore stood only marginally above the 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC level cited in the latest reports.
That means the headline achievement of remaining above the quota should not obscure how narrow the margin was.
NUPRC attributed the decline mainly to operational problems at the Erha and Akpo fields.
The explanation points to one of the recurring weaknesses in Nigeria’s oil sector. National production does not depend simply on how much oil is underground. It also depends on whether producing fields, terminals, pipelines and other infrastructure can operate consistently.
A disruption at a major asset can therefore affect national output even when production elsewhere remains relatively stable.
NUPRC’s historical data also shows how uneven production can be. February’s 1.484 million barrels per day was below the 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC level, while June’s 1.74 million barrels was about 17 per cent higher than that benchmark.
July’s 1.67 million barrels represents a retreat from June, but it is still well above the February low.
That makes the current picture less one of a collapse in production and more one of an industry struggling to sustain recent gains.
The production figures have another implication because Nigeria is simultaneously trying to increase domestic refining.
The Federal Government is reviewing rules governing the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation, with proposals aimed at improving access to Nigerian crude for domestic refineries, including the 650,000 barrel per day Dangote refinery. Reuters reported that the review includes proposals allowing some producers to supply nearby refineries directly and possible discounts reflecting lower transportation and handling costs.
This creates an important distinction between producing more crude and supplying more crude to Nigerian refineries.
Higher national production does not automatically mean that domestic refineries will receive all the feedstock they require. The crude has to be available, commercially viable, suitable for the refinery and delivered under workable supply arrangements.
The issue has been a longstanding point of contention. Dangote Refinery previously said difficulties in securing domestic crude had forced it to buy Nigerian crude through international traders at an additional $3 to $4 per barrel premium.
The current government review therefore matters beyond the oil production statistic. It is also about how much of Nigeria’s crude can be converted into refined products within the country.
The January to July data produces three clear findings.
First, production has improved substantially from the February low.
Second, the recovery has not been uninterrupted. July’s four per cent decline shows that operational problems can quickly reverse part of the gains.
Third, Nigeria’s margin above the 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC benchmark remains relatively small when measured against total national output.
The figures also show why a single month’s production number can be misleading. June’s 1.74 million barrels created a stronger picture than July’s 1.67 million, but both figures form part of a wider recovery from the first quarter.
For government, producers and regulators, the more important question is therefore whether Nigeria can keep production consistently around or above current levels rather than whether it can record a particularly strong month.
That will matter for crude exports, government revenue and domestic refinery supply.
For consumers, however, higher crude production should not automatically be interpreted as a promise of cheaper petrol. Pump prices depend on several other factors, including international oil prices, exchange rates, refining costs, transportation and distribution.
The July data therefore offers a mixed picture: Nigeria is producing considerably more oil than it did at the February low, but the latest decline shows that the recovery remains exposed to operational disruptions.
The next few months will reveal whether July was simply a temporary setback or the beginning of another period of weaker production.