March Inflation Hits 15.38%

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.38 per cent in March 2026, snapping a year-long easing trend and signalling renewed pressure on household budgets across the country. The National Bureau of Statistics disclosed the figures in its Consumer Price Index report released on Wednesday.

The increase marks the first time the headline inflation rate has climbed since March 2025. According to the NBS report, “In March 2026, the Headline inflation rate rose to 15.38 per cent, up from 15.06 per cent in February 2026,” reflecting a 0.32 percentage point increase on a year-on-year basis.

Month-on-month inflation accelerated sharply, underscoring the pace of price increases within a short window. The report stated that “the Headline inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.18 per cent, which was 2.17 per cent higher than the rate recorded in February 2026 (2.01 per cent).” The Consumer Price Index rose to 135.4 points in March, up 5.4 points from 130.0 in February.

A breakdown of the drivers showed that food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 5.55 percentage points to the headline figure. Restaurants and accommodation services accounted for 3.26 percentage points, while transport added 1.80 percentage points.

Urban inflation stood at 14.64 per cent year-on-year, while rural inflation was significantly higher at 17.22 per cent. On a monthly basis, rural inflation surged to 6.73 per cent, up from 0.71 per cent in February, indicating sharper price pressures in rural communities.

Food inflation remained elevated at 14.31 per cent on a year-on-year basis, compared to 25.22 per cent in March 2025. This represents an increase from the 12.12 per cent recorded in February 2026. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation stood at 4.17 per cent, with staple items such as yams, cassava, tomatoes, and potatoes driving the rise.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, rose to 16.21 per cent year-on-year, down from 27.12 per cent in March 2025. Monthly core inflation climbed to 4.03 per cent.

The NBS noted that the average inflation rate for the 12 months ending March 2026 stood at 20.05 per cent, higher than the 18.58 per cent recorded in March 2025.

State-level data showed significant disparities. Bayelsa recorded the highest year-on-year inflation at 27.37 per cent, followed by Sokoto at 26.03 per cent and Bauchi at 23.67 per cent. Osun recorded the slowest rise at 5.25 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, Zamfara led at 10.77 per cent, followed by Bauchi at 9.37 per cent and Sokoto at 9.05 per cent. Lagos, Akwa Ibom, and Rivers recorded the slowest monthly increases.

The NBS cautioned that variations across states reflect differences in consumption patterns and warned that direct comparisons may be misleading due to varying weights assigned to goods and services.

The World Bank, in its most recent Nigeria Development Update, warned that rising global oil prices could compound inflationary pressures. “Overall, an increase in oil prices to about $80 per barrel… would directly add around 3.1 ppts to headline inflation under a full pass-through assumption,” the bank stated, adding that indirect effects from higher fuel costs on transport, logistics, and food prices could push inflation even higher.