A promise by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to restore petrol subsidy if elected in 2027 has pushed one of Nigeria’s most divisive economic questions back to the centre of national politics, drawing sharp responses from rival presidential contenders and the ruling party.
Atiku, now the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress, made the pledge during a Facebook live session with selected Hausa language platforms, questioning how the savings from subsidy removal had been spent and criticising the economic hardship that followed the policy. The intervention marked a clear departure from his stance during the 2023 election, when he joined the other leading candidates in backing an end to the regime.
Accord Party candidate Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim responded by describing Atiku as the “father of subsidy removal” in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, arguing that his reversal required an explanation rather than a fresh campaign promise. “Atiku’s recant on subsidy removal without an apology is dishonesty,” Hashim said in a statement. “If you change your position because circumstances or evidence have changed, tell Nigerians why you changed. There is nothing wrong with changing your mind. What is wrong is pretending that you never held the position in the first place.”
Hashim said Atiku, President Bola Tinubu and Labour Party’s Peter Obi all campaigned on removing subsidy in 2023, while he, Omoyele Sowore and Adewole Adebayo opposed it. He traced Atiku’s advocacy to the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, where Atiku served as vice president and chaired the government’s economic team. The record supports part of that account. Speaking at the Lagos Business School in 2022, Atiku himself said he had chaired a committee that removed subsidy in phases and described the regime as “just a fraud.” He advanced a similar position during the 2019 campaign.
The All Progressives Congress and the Presidency also rejected Atiku’s proposal. APC National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda and House of Representatives member Wale Ahmed argued that restoring subsidy would undermine the country’s fragile economic recovery. Through his aide Phrank Shaibu, Atiku countered that the government’s claim to have abolished subsidy was difficult to reconcile with tax credits and other concessions granted to petroleum operators, and he challenged the administration to fully account for the savings.
The dispute matters because the numbers behind it are now well documented. Tinubu announced the removal in his inaugural address on 29 May 2023 with the words “fuel subsidy is gone.” The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited immediately raised the pump price from about N195 per litre to between N480 and N570, and by July 2023 it stood at N617.
Three years later, according to market data reported in mid 2026, petrol sold for between N1,300 and N1,400 per litre, with the National Bureau of Statistics recording prices as high as N1,500 in some locations. That represents an increase of more than 600 per cent since May 2023. Prices had briefly eased towards N800 to N900 in 2024 after the Dangote refinery began operations and triggered a price war, before renewed pressure, including supply disruptions linked to the United States and Iran conflict in early 2026, drove them upward again.
The subsidy had become a heavy fiscal burden. Government figures put the cost at N2.0 trillion in 2022 and N3.6 trillion in 2023, with projections that it could have reached N5.4 trillion by the end of 2024 had it continued.
At the heart of Atiku’s challenge is what the reform actually delivered. Presenting the administration’s reform scorecard on 19 August 2026, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said the removal of subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market generated N15.8 trillion in savings for the federation between June 2023 and December 2025.
Of that sum, the Federal Government received N5.4 trillion, or 34 per cent, while states took N6.5 trillion and local governments N3.9 trillion under the statutory allocation formula. Oyedele acknowledged that the savings did not appear as a separate line in the Federation Account, explaining that the gains showed up instead through higher naira revenues. He also disclosed that total incremental spending over the period reached N30.64 trillion, with N11.9 trillion of the fiscal space funded by borrowing.
The reforms have reshaped headline indicators. Monthly disbursements from the Federation Account Allocation Committee rose to a record N3.007 trillion in July 2026, up about 281 per cent from N786.16 billion shared in May 2023. Gross foreign reserves climbed from around $35 billion in May 2023 to $52.5 billion by July 2026, and headline inflation eased from 22.41 per cent in May 2023 to 15.91 per cent in June 2026.
Those gains have not translated into relief for households. Lower inflation means prices are rising more slowly, not falling, and the national minimum wage increase from N30,000 to N70,000 has been overtaken by the cost of fuel, transport and food. The government launched a Presidential Initiative on Compressed Natural Gas as a cheaper alternative, but adoption remains limited.
Economists remain divided. Supporters of removal argue that the policy freed the government from an unsustainable obligation that encouraged smuggling and rent seeking, and that any relief should come through targeted transfers rather than a universal subsidy. Critics, including Hashim, favour restoring support for petroleum and other strategic products to shield citizens and industry from severe shocks.
What is confirmed is that subsidy, fiscal sustainability, household welfare and investment incentives have moved to the centre of the emerging 2027 campaign. What remains contested is whether the savings have justified the hardship, a question that is likely to shape the coming political contest as much as the economic one.
Fuel Subsidy, Atiku Abubakar, 2027 Elections, Gbenga Hashim