Nigeria’s equities market is on course to close 2026 as one of its strongest years on record, with capital market analysts projecting that total market capitalisation could cross N200 trillion by December. The optimism rests largely on the anticipated listing of Dangote Petroleum Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange, alongside firm corporate earnings, easing inflation and renewed investor confidence.
Sam Onukwue, immediate past chairman of the Association of Stockbroking Houses of Nigeria and managing director of Mega Equities, expects the market to cross the N200 trillion mark once the refinery is listed. David Adonri, managing director of Highcap Securities, puts the figure slightly higher at about N210 trillion by December. Both analysts see the All-Share Index closing the year at around 280,000 points as investors position for year-end dividends.
Olatunde Amolegbe, immediate past president of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers and managing director of Arthur Stevens Asset Management, was more measured, projecting a full-year return of about 57.65 per cent. He cautioned that the market could see some moderation in the coming weeks as investors take profit after a long rally, and as portfolios are repositioned ahead of the new year.
The projections follow a remarkable run. Market capitalisation has climbed from N99.376 trillion at the start of the year to about N162 trillion, an appreciation of more than N62 trillion, or above 60 per cent. The All-Share Index has risen from 155,613 points to around 249,700, having touched a high above 254,000 earlier in November before profit-taking trimmed some of the gains. By the close of September, market value stood at roughly N163 trillion, with a year-to-date return near 61 per cent.
The rally has been broad but uneven across sectors. Industrial goods and oil and gas stocks have led the advance with year-to-date gains above 110 per cent, while banking has added more than 50 per cent. Insurance has lagged, closing lower for the year.
Several factors have underpinned the gains. Relative stability in the foreign exchange market, stronger company results and improved liquidity have combined with a clear easing in price pressures. Headline inflation slowed to 15.39 per cent in August, a third consecutive monthly decline and far below the levels above 25 per cent recorded a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The economy also grew by 4.43 per cent in the second quarter.
Monetary policy has reinforced the mood. In September, the Central Bank of Nigeria cut its benchmark Monetary Policy Rate to 23 per cent from 26.5 per cent, a reduction of 350 basis points that ranks as its largest single cut on record. Lower rates tend to push investors from fixed-income instruments towards equities in search of higher returns.
At the centre of the year-end outlook is the Dangote Refinery offering. The N2.15 trillion initial public offering, priced at N525 per share for roughly a tenth of the company, opened in September and marked the first time a petroleum refinery has been offered to the investing public in the exchange’s 66-year history. The refinery reported revenue of about N19.47 trillion and profit after tax of N2.55 trillion for the first half of 2026, and its listing, expected in December, could lift the exchange’s total value by a wide margin.
The offer has not been without strain. The secondary market weakened for much of October as funds migrated to the primary market to take up the refinery shares, and the offer fell short of its target of ten million retail investors. With the offer now closed, the market is expected to regain momentum through the rest of the year and into the first quarter of 2027.
Attention is also turning to the 2027 general election. Most analysts believe the vote is unlikely to derail the market unless it brings adverse policy change. Tajudeen Olayinka, an investment banker and market analyst, warned that uncertainty could make foreign portfolio investors more cautious, and that debate around a possible reversal of fuel subsidy, together with a lack of clear economic programmes from opposition camps, could slow activity. He drew a contrast with the run-up to the 2023 election, when the leading candidates were widely seen as market-friendly.
For now, the message from the market is one of guarded optimism. Analysts advise investors to stay in but to be selective, favouring companies with strong fundamentals, sustainable earnings and sound governance, while bracing for the corrections that typically follow a rally of this size.