Diplomacy Sours, But South African Money Keeps Flowing Into Nigeria
South African investors moved $983.83m into Nigeria between January and March 2026, even as anti migrant violence in South Africa forced hundreds of Nigerians to flee home, fresh figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show, pointing to a commercial relationship that has held firm while the diplomatic one frays.
According to the NBS Capital Importation Report for the first quarter of 2026, the inflow made South Africa Nigeria’s third largest source of foreign capital for the period, accounting for 9.49 per cent of the total $10.37bn that entered the country. The figure marks a 90.31 per cent jump from the $516.96m recorded in the last quarter of 2025 and a 96.26 per cent rise on the $501.29m brought in during the same quarter of 2025.
The resilience is striking given the timing. South Africa has seen recurring waves of xenophobic attacks since 2008, and tensions flared again through the first half of 2026, with anti immigrant groups setting a June 30 deadline for foreigners to leave. In response, President Bola Tinubu approved five federally funded Air Peace evacuation flights. By early July, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that 603 Nigerians had returned across three flights, with more than 1,000 screened for voluntary repatriation.
Even so, the money kept coming. NBS data reviewed over nine quarters show South African inflows swinging from $582.34m in the first quarter of 2024 down to $185.03m by the third, before recovering to cross $1.01bn in the second quarter of 2025, its highest point. The $983.83m posted in the opening quarter of 2026 stands as the second highest in that window.
Nigeria’s overall capital importation of $10.37bn represented an 83.83 per cent surge from the $5.64bn of a year earlier and a 60.97 per cent climb from the $6.44bn of the preceding quarter. The United Kingdom led all sources with $5.08bn (49.01 per cent), followed by the United States with $3.18bn (30.69 per cent), then South Africa, Mauritius ($390.07m) and the United Arab Emirates ($194.51m).
The report also underlines how much of the inflow is short term. Portfolio investment made up $9.86bn, or 95.09 per cent of the total, while foreign direct investment, the patient capital that builds factories and jobs, managed only $135.08m, a slim 1.30 per cent. By sector, banking absorbed $7.55bn (72.79 per cent), with Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria alone processing $4.41bn (42.56 per cent), ahead of Stanbic IBTC ($2.78bn) and Rand Merchant Bank ($930.82m).
The investment figures land in the middle of a hardening official posture. Foreign Affairs Minister Bianca Odumegwu Ojukwu, briefing State House correspondents after meeting President Tinubu, rejected South African claims that the affected Nigerians were illegal migrants and said a review of privileges enjoyed by South African businesses in Nigeria was “not off the table.” The House of Representatives had earlier proposed a temporary suspension of business permits for South African firms, while the Senate resolved to send a delegation led by Senate President Godswill Akpabio to Pretoria. Air Peace chairman Allen Onyema, speaking on Arise Television, urged a non violent economic boycott.
Commercial ties, however, continue to deepen in both directions. Nigeria’s imports from South Africa rose 23.83 per cent to N155.26bn in the same quarter, while South African pension and investment institutions, including the Public Investment Corporation, recently toured the Dangote refinery in Lagos, signalling appetite for further exposure to Africa’s largest economy.