Trade Leads Nigeria’s GDP At 17.89% Amid Reform Gains
Nigeria’s trade sector attracted $65.79m in foreign capital in the first quarter of 2026, a 91.31 per cent rise from the $34.39m recorded in the same period of 2025, even as inflows moderated after a strong second half of last year.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ capital importation report showed the year-on-year jump underscored renewed investor confidence in commercial activities and cross-border trade. The figure, however, fell below the $80.94m recorded in the third quarter of 2025 and the $119.21m attracted in the fourth quarter, indicating momentum eased after two consecutive quarters of growth.
The performance came as trading ranked among the sectors drawing foreign inflows during the quarter, attracting $65.79 million, alongside agriculture at $37.28 million, information technology services at $11.33 million, and telecommunications at $7.24 million.
The NBS also reported that trade emerged as the single largest contributor to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for 17.89 per cent of total output.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the sector’s strong showing reflected improving macroeconomic conditions. “One of the most significant highlights of the report is the emergence of the trade sector as the single largest contributor to GDP at 17.89 per cent. This reflects the positive effects of improved exchange rate stability, better FX liquidity conditions, easing inflationary pressures and recovering business confidence on commercial activities and trade flows,” Yusuf said.
He cautioned against relying on commerce alone. “Sustainable economic transformation cannot be driven by commerce alone. Long-term growth resilience requires stronger productive capacity, deeper industrialisation and significantly higher domestic value addition,” he added.
Industry experts projected trade would play a growing role across the continent as governments deepen regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area. The Chief Executive Officer of Seedtree Capital, Bowale Adeoye, writing in The Boardroom Africa 2026 Industry Trends Report, said the shift “from dollar-intermediated systems toward continental payment infrastructure is reducing transaction costs and settlement delays while addressing Africa’s $100bn to $120bn trade finance gap.” She pointed to platforms such as the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System as helping businesses settle faster in local currencies.
The Chief Executive Officer of NAHCO Commodities Limited, Ijeoma Ezenwa, said African agriculture was moving from raw exports toward “agro-processing and more integrated value chains,” noting that market access was “increasingly determined by standards, traceability, and quality assurance, not production volumes alone.”
The Federal Government has named trade facilitation a key pillar of its 2026 strategy. The Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, said priorities include a Made-in-Nigeria campaign, industrial cluster development, support for women-led businesses, and deployment of artificial intelligence tools.
The broader report showed total foreign inflows rose to $10.37bn in the first quarter of 2026 from $5.64bn a year earlier, with foreign direct investment at $135.08m, representing only 1.30 per cent of total capital inflows.