Nigeria’s petrol market is showing a sharp reversal after months of declining dependence on imported fuel, with new regulatory data showing that imports accounted for 43.3 per cent of petrol receipts in July 2026, even as the country’s largest refinery had demonstrated the capacity to process more than its original design level.
The latest figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that average daily Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imports rose to 19.7 million litres in July from 5.9 million litres in May. That represents a 234 per cent increase in two months, although the July volume remained below the 24.8 million litres imported daily in January.
The development has renewed questions about whether Nigeria’s growing refining capacity is translating into sustained domestic supply, particularly as the country attempts to reduce its longstanding exposure to imported petroleum products.
NMDPRA data show that imported petrol rose sharply from 5.9 million litres per day in May to 18.1 million litres in June, an increase of 206.8 per cent, before rising another 8.8 per cent to 19.7 million litres in July.
At the same time, domestic petrol supply moved in the opposite direction. Refinery supplied PMS fell from 32.5 million litres per day in June to 25.8 million litres in July, a decline of 20.6 per cent.
The result was a smaller overall supply pool. Combined domestic and imported PMS receipts fell from 50.6 million litres per day in June to 45.5 million litres in July, a 10.1 per cent decline. Domestic refineries accounted for 56.7 per cent of July receipts, while imports supplied the remaining 43.3 per cent.
That change is particularly notable because Nigeria had recorded a very different picture earlier in the year.
NMDPRA data for April showed domestic refineries operating at an average capacity utilisation of 99.12 per cent. Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the country’s largest refinery, achieved full capacity utilisation on most days during the month.
The refinery produced an average of 53.6 million litres of petrol daily, supplying 40.7 million litres to the domestic market and exporting 17.1 million litres. Petrol imports had fallen to 3.7 million litres per day, from 5.9 million litres in March.
April’s figures therefore appeared to support the argument that Nigeria’s downstream sector was entering a period in which local refining could substantially reduce import dependence.
That progress was also supported by improved crude availability. NMDPRA reported that domestic refineries received 18.37 million barrels of crude in April, including 17.96 million barrels from domestic sources, while only 410,000 barrels were imported.
But the July figures demonstrate that refining capacity alone does not guarantee consistent domestic petrol supply.
The Dangote refinery’s crude processing capacity also reached 700,000 barrels per day during a performance test in June, above its 650,000 barrels per day nameplate capacity. The company said the test formed part of its plan to expand the facility to 1.4 million barrels per day.
Yet NMDPRA data indicate that the refinery’s average capacity utilisation fell to 71.09 per cent in July, from 101.36 per cent in June.
The latest numbers do not, by themselves, establish that Nigeria has an absolute shortage of refining capacity.
Rather, they show a gap between potential refining capacity and the quantity of petrol actually supplied into the domestic market during the month.
That distinction is important because several factors can affect domestic supply, including refinery utilisation, crude availability, product inventories, logistics, wholesale demand and the commercial terms under which products are supplied.
The NMDPRA has previously argued that petroleum imports can be used to bridge supply shortfalls and maintain competition in the market. In proceedings relating to import licences, the regulator maintained that its decisions take account of refinery output, wholesale customers, pricing and the ability of suppliers to maintain reliable storage and distribution.
The issue has also been tested legally. Dangote Refinery previously challenged the issuance of petroleum product import licences, arguing that Sections 317(8) and (9) of the Petroleum Industry Act provide for imports where there is a domestic supply shortfall. The company discontinued that suit in 2025, and the case was dismissed.
The latest debate is therefore not simply about whether Nigeria should import petrol. It is about how regulators determine when imports are necessary and how much should be allowed when domestic refining capacity is available.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise has now urged NMDPRA to publish product by product supply gap assessments before approving significant import volumes. It argues that imports should cover only a quantified residual shortfall rather than compete unnecessarily with available domestic production.
The position has implications beyond individual refineries. Persistent uncertainty over the relationship between imports and domestic production could affect refinery utilisation, investment decisions, foreign exchange demand and the government’s objective of building a more self sufficient petroleum products market.
At the same time, restricting imports without establishing adequate domestic supply could create another risk if local production, inventories or distribution networks cannot reliably meet national demand.
The July data therefore present a more complicated picture than either a simple return to import dependence or a complete failure of local refining.
Nigeria has demonstrated that it can dramatically reduce petrol imports when domestic refining and crude supply improve. The latest figures show, however, that sustaining that shift requires more than installed refinery capacity. It also depends on consistent refinery operations, reliable crude supply, adequate logistics and transparent regulation of the residual import requirement.
That is the test now facing Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.